Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Week 14 - Double Down Uselessness

Using your numbers, it seems pretty useless to bet on the games with the best beta values this week, since the spreads are so close to a Beta-predicted outcome. The one exception may be NE. The last time I checked the spread was -10, not -13 as you posted. If this is true, the expected margin of victory (14) would be 40% higher than the spread (10).

What think you, Excelius?

As for my new style of betting pre-vegas, I must be more mildly entertaining than genius, because I'm not sure what you had in mind. Clearly my mind is vacant. So... What'd you have in mind?

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