Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Week 14 - Teasers Pay Off Again - Weekly Roundup

I seem to have found my niche. The teasers have paid off big-time the past month, and I see no reason to stop going forward with them. This was actually an overall good week for me, I would have had a sweep had DAL performed up to par.

The good:

CLE -3.5 - my only single game bet, and once again CLE continued to be a solid bet. This was my favorite game, as they were hardly favored against a terrible NYJ team. Turns out a garbage time field goal nearly cost me this one, but CLE put one of their own up at closing to cover. I had them in a teaser +2.5 (love to flip favorites to dogs) C'mon Vegas, keep underestimating the Brownies!

IND -3 - I don't know why this game's spread actually moved down as the week went on, but it didn't matter. As I figured, Baltimore was exhausted after their tough loss to NE and just couldn't keep up. I may take a similar strategy with PIT next week, as they have a tough game vs. JAX and just got smacked around by the Patsies.

MIN -3 - aaah... This one felt good. Had them in two teasers and they rewarded my bandwagon jumping. This is one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, and should continue steamrolling weak opponents. It's December football, and that means battling out on the ground. The Vikes can run over anyone, and stop the run as well. Watch out for this team and reasonable spreads.

NO +2 - this one also felt good. I flipped them on a teaser to get them with points, figuring there was no way the lost to the Falcons. Turns out I didn't need to put them in the teaser, since they destroyed ATL, but winning is winning.

The Bad:

Dal -4.5 - They took a nap in the first half, and couldn't get going to put any distance between them and DET, who are a weak-ass team who should have been beaten badly. Using them in a teaser to reduce the spread to -4.5 should have been a lock, but I guess you can't win them all.

OAK +10.5 - had them in my crazy-whack 10 team parlay and this was just a bad call on my part. I figured incorrectly that Favre being hurt, and just coming off an emotional loss to DAL would give the pesky Raiders the edge to get within the large spread. Nope.

The Box - I had four box teams in my crazy-whack 10 team, and three lost. The box has been ice cold the past 3 weeks, and I'm picking a bad time to jump on blindly. Surely the incredible math Matty has shown means the next few weeks should be dead-on...

Teasers - Yeah, two of my three teasers won... but they would have won as parlays, too! Had I stuck to the parlay theory I discussed earlier in the week, I would have been paid out 6:1 instead of 2.2:1. Triple the profits lost to having no sack. To put it in real #s... I would have cleared $110 this week, putting me in the positive for the first time since week 3 on the year. Once again, I repeat... it is bad gambling to bet big when you are losing, and bet small when you are winning.

Progressive Parlay: Lost big time, but it was to be expected. It was a fun long shot, and I maintain my earlier opinion that bang for buck fun-wise... it's amazing. I cared about 10 games this week, and even when a couple lost, I still was following the other 8 really closely.

All in all I'm very curious to see how the spreads lay out this week. I am reinvigorated in the parlay bets I was in love with at the beginning of the season, but I think the spreads have to make sense in order to do it, since I rely on intuition and conviction, not on mathematics.

Total Bets = $25
Total Payouts = $39
Total Profit = $14
% Return = ~40%

No comments: