Monday, December 3, 2007

Week 13 - What Good Is Instant Replay When It Still Costs You Games?

Did anyone see that catch at the end of the Cleveland game? Or better yet, did anyone catch and get pushed out of bounds the Cleveland game?

I have a small wager on tonight's game, which I assume is money well thrown away (betting against the Pats), but it would have been a small profit week if not for the last call of the Cleveland game. Romeo Crennel should stick a clipboard up the ass of the NFL this week.

I'll have full results tabled tomorrow, but it's looking like a down week. In this current model, it would be the second down week of the year. I back tested this model through the 2006 season assuming I bet ONLY the top 5 teams, and after Week 1, I bet a max of 33% of my bankroll (with a cap at $200 for the week not including the double down bets), and the results are just silly. This is a hypothetical, but I'm going to stop tweaking the system for a bit and let it ride. Based on these results, it would be hard to argue with my logic.



Running Dollars Dollars Week

Buy In Balance Bet Paid Out Performance
2006 $100.00 $100.00 $0.00 $0.00
Week 1
$100.00 $40.00 $32.81 -17.98%
Week 2
$92.81 $30.63 $36.09 17.85%
Week 3
$98.27 $39.13 $74.70 90.91%
Week 4
$133.85 $58.54 $64.35 9.93%
Week 5
$139.66 $59.83 $63.44 6.03%
Week 6
$143.26 $70.86 $135.28 90.91%
Week 7
$207.68 $68.53 $69.75 1.77%
Week 8
$208.90 $68.94 $82.41 19.55%
Week 9
$222.38 $73.38 $113.84 55.13%
Week 10
$262.83 $115.82 $221.11 90.91%
Week 11
$368.12 $121.48 $191.52 57.66%
Week 12
$438.16 $200.22 $328.19 63.92%
Week 13
$566.14 $215.74 $411.87 90.91%
Week 14
$762.26 $280.98 $242.67 -13.63%
Week 15
$723.96 $200.00 $143.74 -28.13%
Week 16
$667.70 $236.09 $375.95 59.24%
Week 17
$807.57 $225.80 $431.07 90.91%
2007
$1,012.84 $0.00 $0.00
Week 1
$1,012.84 $200.00 $311.11 55.56%
Week 2
$1,123.95 $200.00 $315.54 57.77%
Week 3
$1,239.49 $271.98 $441.44 62.31%
Week 4
$1,408.95 $200.00 $392.24 96.12%
Week 5
$1,601.19 $227.21 $168.97 -25.63%
Week 6
$1,542.94 $224.83 $254.26 13.09%
Week 7
$1,572.38 $200.00 $306.63 53.32%
Week 8
$1,679.01 $226.28 $334.05 47.63%
Week 9
$1,786.78 $200.00 $378.43 89.21%
Week 10
$1,965.21 $276.92 $532.24 92.20%
Week 11
$2,220.53 $242.30 $326.14 34.60%
Week 12
$2,304.37 $247.19 $327.21 32.37%
Week 13
$2,384.39 $200.00 $157.33 -21.34%

Ridiculous? Yes, ridiculous. 5 down weeks (if I include this week as a down week despite still having money on tonight), but 16 weeks of greater than 50% returns. What exactly am I tweaking??? I could have bought in for $100 and have a $2300 bankroll right now! That more than a 2000% RETURN! Damn. Of course, the system is always in flux, so this is strictly hypothetical. Even still, it gives me more hope. If I continue to ignore parlays and teasers and stay with the best odds, I have a good chance of continuing on this pace. If I continue on this pace, I may stop investing in my IRA and start investing in the BOX.

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