I have a small wager on tonight's game, which I assume is money well thrown away (betting against the Pats), but it would have been a small profit week if not for the last call of the Cleveland game. Romeo Crennel should stick a clipboard up the ass of the NFL this week.
I'll have full results tabled tomorrow, but it's looking like a down week. In this current model, it would be the second down week of the year. I back tested this model through the 2006 season assuming I bet ONLY the top 5 teams, and after Week 1, I bet a max of 33% of my bankroll (with a cap at $200 for the week not including the double down bets), and the results are just silly. This is a hypothetical, but I'm going to stop tweaking the system for a bit and let it ride. Based on these results, it would be hard to argue with my logic.
| Running | Dollars | Dollars | Week | ||
| Buy In | Balance | Bet | Paid Out | Performance | |
| 2006 | $100.00 | $100.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |
| Week 1 | $100.00 | $40.00 | $32.81 | -17.98% | |
| Week 2 | $92.81 | $30.63 | $36.09 | 17.85% | |
| Week 3 | $98.27 | $39.13 | $74.70 | 90.91% | |
| Week 4 | $133.85 | $58.54 | $64.35 | 9.93% | |
| Week 5 | $139.66 | $59.83 | $63.44 | 6.03% | |
| Week 6 | $143.26 | $70.86 | $135.28 | 90.91% | |
| Week 7 | $207.68 | $68.53 | $69.75 | 1.77% | |
| Week 8 | $208.90 | $68.94 | $82.41 | 19.55% | |
| Week 9 | $222.38 | $73.38 | $113.84 | 55.13% | |
| Week 10 | $262.83 | $115.82 | $221.11 | 90.91% | |
| Week 11 | $368.12 | $121.48 | $191.52 | 57.66% | |
| Week 12 | $438.16 | $200.22 | $328.19 | 63.92% | |
| Week 13 | $566.14 | $215.74 | $411.87 | 90.91% | |
| Week 14 | $762.26 | $280.98 | $242.67 | -13.63% | |
| Week 15 | $723.96 | $200.00 | $143.74 | -28.13% | |
| Week 16 | $667.70 | $236.09 | $375.95 | 59.24% | |
| Week 17 | $807.57 | $225.80 | $431.07 | 90.91% | |
| 2007 | $1,012.84 | $0.00 | $0.00 | ||
| Week 1 | $1,012.84 | $200.00 | $311.11 | 55.56% | |
| Week 2 | $1,123.95 | $200.00 | $315.54 | 57.77% | |
| Week 3 | $1,239.49 | $271.98 | $441.44 | 62.31% | |
| Week 4 | $1,408.95 | $200.00 | $392.24 | 96.12% | |
| Week 5 | $1,601.19 | $227.21 | $168.97 | -25.63% | |
| Week 6 | $1,542.94 | $224.83 | $254.26 | 13.09% | |
| Week 7 | $1,572.38 | $200.00 | $306.63 | 53.32% | |
| Week 8 | $1,679.01 | $226.28 | $334.05 | 47.63% | |
| Week 9 | $1,786.78 | $200.00 | $378.43 | 89.21% | |
| Week 10 | $1,965.21 | $276.92 | $532.24 | 92.20% | |
| Week 11 | $2,220.53 | $242.30 | $326.14 | 34.60% | |
| Week 12 | $2,304.37 | $247.19 | $327.21 | 32.37% | |
| Week 13 | $2,384.39 | $200.00 | $157.33 | -21.34% |
Ridiculous? Yes, ridiculous. 5 down weeks (if I include this week as a down week despite still having money on tonight), but 16 weeks of greater than 50% returns. What exactly am I tweaking??? I could have bought in for $100 and have a $2300 bankroll right now! That more than a 2000% RETURN! Damn. Of course, the system is always in flux, so this is strictly hypothetical. Even still, it gives me more hope. If I continue to ignore parlays and teasers and stay with the best odds, I have a good chance of continuing on this pace. If I continue on this pace, I may stop investing in my IRA and start investing in the BOX.
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