Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Week 15 - MadCapping & Pregame Analysis

This is the anti-Week 14. I am uncomfortable with most of these games, but here's my breakdown anyway.....

1. DEN vs HOU: I regularly tout HOU as one of my favorite underdogs, and I'm going to add that Sage Rosenfels is a really good backup. He steps in and does almost as well as Shaub. DEN is a team that can't decide if it's really good or really bad, but I think their ability to run the ball and HOU's lack of similar ability gives them the slightest of edges. DEN -1.

2. CIN at SF: I love picking against SF, and I see no reason for CIN not to go into SF and go bombs away. Where is the SF running game this year, anyways? CIN -6.

3. ARI at NO: Arizona, Schmarizona... These guys kill me every week. They beat Detroit one week, lose to SF the next week and then can't cover a spread to save themselves. I guess this means I like NO. NO -5.

4. ATL at TB: Continuing the theme of picking against ATL, I give you Tampa! TB -12.

5. BAL at MIA: BAL is going to think they are playing against a high school team after consecutive weeks against NE and IND. BAL -7.

6. BUF at CLE: Game of the week entertainment-wise, maybe not so much gambling-wise. Two overachieving teams with the playoffs on the line. I can see this going either way, probably depending on turnovers and special teams, but CLE is the better team, and they're at home so I give them the edge. CLE -2.5.

7. GB at STL: I doubted GB last week against a weak opponent and paid the price. Not this week, my friends! Ron Grant rolls, Favre airs it out and GB wins by a couple scores. GB -11.

8. JAX vs PIT: Game of the week part 2! What is it with these AFC North teams? This is a toughy... will PIT have a NE hangover like Baltimore and Philly? JAX is playing as tough as anyone and is built for December football with excellent running offense/defense and a low-turnover passing game. I may regret this, but I'm calling for (what I assume will be) an upset. JAX -3.

9. NYJ at NE: Is there a spread high enough that would make me bet on the Jets? NE -30.

10. SEA at CAR: Other than MIN, SEA might be the hottest team right now in the NFL. Suddenly Hasselbeck is throwing TDs (unfortunately my fantasy league opponent has picked him off waivers after I cut him), Julian Peterson is racking up sacks, and the running game is going. With a lowly opponent this week, they should be favored huge. SEA -12.

11. TN at KC: I'm still bitter that TN lost to CIN 3 weeks ago. I bet against them last week and I want to bet against them this week. But they are in the playoff hunt, KC is not. KC is in shambles, TN is not. TN -5.

12. IND at OAK: Indy again gets a creampuff opponent. What is their opponents win %? I don't remember them playing Dallas, GB, PIT. Bitter for me as a Pats fan, but I love them to win huge, here. IND -14.

13. DET at SD: Frickin' Detroit. They are freefalling and have a near-impossible closing schedule. SD still is inconsistent to me, mostly because of Felipe Rios (that's phillip rivers for you non spanish speakers). SD has been on a winning streak lately, there at home so I give them the victory. SD -3.

14. PHI at DAL: Normally I would call this a huge victory for DAL, but this is a hunch... DAL is gonna be favored by way too many, and Philly makes this a close game. DAL -5.

15. WAS at NYG: Meh. That's how I feel about these two teams. WAS could play for pride or be out of steam. NYG have played poorly, but have been eeking it out. Let's call it a close one. NYG -1.

16. CHI at MIN: My bandwagon team keeps rolling... Love MIN, hopefully Vegas hasn't caught on yet. MIN -4.

Stay tuned for my weekly comparison of the Vegas spreads vs. my own Madcapping in DELTA FORCE 2007.

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