Week 14 - Box's Final Bets

I've been waiting all day for the damn KC/DEN spread to come out so I could see how much conviction the Box had. Now that's it's finally in, I can announce the Week 14 best bets:

1. SD -0.01 v. TEN Away

2. ARI +7 v. SEA Away - Bet Soon

3. PIT +10 v. NE Away - Bet Soon

4. STL +6.5 v. CIN Away

5. KC +6.5 v. DEN Away

Here are the top moneyline picks this week:

THE PICKS

* considers lay in pick order

1. NO -220 v. ATL @Home

2. WAS -160 v. CHI Away

3. CLE -165 v. NYJ @Home

4. TB -150 v. HOU @Home

5. PHI -140 v. NYG Away

6. DEN -280 v. KC Away

7. BUF -300 v. MIA Away

8. CIN -280 v. STL Away

9. SEA -310 v. ARI Away

10. GB -480 v. OAK Away

11. NE -475 v. PIT Away

12. MIN -410 v. SF @Home

13. IND -440 v. BAL @Home

14. JAC -550 v. CAR Away

15. DAL -525 v. DET @Home

I love the NO pick at number one and the Cleveland pick at number 3. Decent lays, and the Browns are downright cheap. How is Cleveland at home such a cheap favorite?

My final bets include my first progressive parlay, a new tactic. I back tested it, and I win 50% of the backtests, so I feel good about this fun coin flip bet. If I hit, I'll make up ground for not sticking to the Box's suggested 5 only. If I miss, well... I'm a mo.

Bets for Week 14

Spread: ARI +7 (-105) v. SEA - $10.33 to win $9.84

Spread: KC +6.5 (-110) v. DEN - $7.79 to win $7.08

Spread: STL +6.5 (-115) v. CIN - $7.96 to win $6.92

Spread: SD 0 (-110) v. TEN - $18.28 to win $16.62

Spread: PIT +10 (-110) v. NE - $8.31 to win $7.55

Parlay: KC +6.5 (-110) v. DEN, ARI +7 (-105) v. SEA, STL +6.5 (-115) v. CIN, PIT +10 (-110) v. NE, MIA +7 (-110) v. BUF - $5.00 to win $55.00