Thursday, October 30, 2008

Week 09 - Back From The Grave!!!

So, I've been a combination of a.) very busy, and b.) totally demoralized. Right up until Week 8's results.

After a big goose egg in Week 6, followed by a virtual goose egg in Week 7, Week 8 was a week of love. 100% victory. Still way down on the year, but there's a nice upside.

I had some serious tweaking to do on the moneyline side of the box, it just wasn't working as I wanted. However, it seems to have paid off. Here are the week 6 - 8 bets and results:

Week 0666:
Rank Pick Vs Spd Bet % Bet Amt W/L Payout
1 BAL @ IND +4 52% $35.10 L $0.00
2 CAR @ TB +1 48% $32.78 L $0.00

Rank Pick Vs ML Bet % Bet Amt W/L Payout
1 WAS v. STL -650 34% $9.37 L $0.00
2 NYG @ CLE -340 26% $7.20 L $0.00
3 BAL @ IND +170 21% $5.72 L $0.00
4 MIA @ HOU +130 18% $5.00 L $0.00

Not so good. Here's Week 7, the follow up to not so good:
Rank Pick Vs Spd Bet % Bet Amt W/L Payout
1 SD @ BUF 0 34% $11.19 L $0.00
2 NO @ CAR +3 33% $11.10 L $0.00
3 DEN @ NE +3 33% $11.08 L $0.00

Rank Pick Vs ML Bet % Bet Amt W/L Payout
1 TEN @ KC -350 42% $7.53 W $9.68
2 DEN @ NE +140 30% $5.42 L $0.00
3 NO @ CAR +130 28% $5.00 L $0.00

Ridiculous. I watched my bank go from @ $200 to @ $65 in 2 weeks. But, there's a small upside in Week 8:
Rank Pick Vs Spd Bet % Bet Amt W/L Payout
1 NO v. SD +3 51% $10.84 W $20.70
2 NYG @ PIT +2.5 49% $10.58 W $20.66

Rank Pick Vs ML Bet % Bet Amt W/L Payout
1 NYG @ PIT +120 50% $5.01 W $11.01
2 TEN v. IND -200 50% $5.00 W $7.50

Tough few weeks, to say the least. Apparently, the box is highly correlated to the S&P 500 (if you can figure that one out, I'd love to know). Here's where we stand today:

Start Value
$s Add $s Sub
$100.00 $0.00
Total Bank
Bets Placed
Bet Income
Ending Bank
Total Return

But this week, we're back in scary territory. Lots of money, very few bets. Sigh. But the bets are placed, and here they are:

Rank Pick Vs Spd Bet % Bet Amt
1 BAL @ CLE +1.5 100% $22.46
2 MIA @ DEN +3

3 ARI @ STL -3

4 HOU @ MIN +4.5

5 ATL @ OAK -3

6 TB @ KC -9

7 PHI v. SEA -7

8 PIT @ WAS +1.5

9 NYJ @ BUF +5.5

10 GB @ TEN +5.5

11 NE @ IND +5.5

12 DET @ CHI +13

13 NYG v. DAL -9

14 JAC @ CIN -8


Rank Pick Vs ML Bet % Bet Amt
1 TB @ KC -420 30% $8.62
2 PHI v. SEA -300 27% $7.92
3 CHI v. DET -650 25% $7.32
4 MIA @ DEN +160 17% $5.00
5 ARI @ STL -150

6 NYG v. DAL -400

7 ATL @ OAK -145

8 BUF v. NYJ -230

9 TEN v. GB -240

10 IND v. NE -250

11 MIN v. HOU -210

12 JAC @ CIN -360

The moneylines now focus on winners more than payouts, which was part of the problem. I had it focusing on payouts equally, which meant some dicey games. It was a big hit or miss method, instead of this way which is low risk, low return hedge to spread betting. Low risk makes more sense as a hedge.

I have to get back to work, but it's good to be back Capper.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Jumbo Package (no not that package)!

Yes that package! least compared to Matty who apparently is still scared in a corner somewhere with his box. I've been picking solo for two weeks now, Matty!

OK so I only like 5 games this week, and I'm putting all my eggs in two baskets:

1. Straight Bet - $20
- buf (-1.5) over MIA: MIA screwed me last week by losing to BAL, and BUF shocked me with a dominant performance over SD. I'm riding this wave big time for most of my week's gambling cash.

2. Parlay (3-team) - $5
[tb (+1.5) over DAL -- atl (+9) over PHI -- nyg (+3) over PIT]
- Dallas is in disarray, Romo is still out and TB is playing extremely well. I think we have an upset here, and then Jerry Jones will have to trade for another whacky WR, maybe Javon Walker?
- The ATL pick is sorta risky, but I don't need them to win, just play solid ball like they have been playing and stay within 9 points. This could be one of the upsets of the week I talked about earlier, though. Keep an eye on this game.
- I just love the Giants. I think they are the best team in football, and here they are as the underdogs. I like PIT, too, but I've watched Ben Rothlesomethingorother get smashed quite a bit, and I think the Giants D may knock him out of this game.

I have a good feeling about this week. Rock on.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Small Change - Week 7 Roundup

Sorry I didn't get my picks posted before the weekend, but I'll go through them below. Just a quick thought, though... Is it time to start picking rediculous upsets on the Moneyline? If you picked the Rams to upset Dallas this week, the payout would have been something like 8:1. Every week there is a huge upset. Miami did it to NE and SD, STL did it to WAS and DAL. If you correctly picked a big upset half the time, you'd be getting 4:1 payouts on average.

1. 3-Team Parlay: [Mia -3, NYG -9.5, NO +3] - LOST $5

- I bought into Mia after they beat SD last week. Dammit. BAL stopped the Wildcat, which wasn't totally shocking but what did surprise is how well they played offensively. Flacco had his best game so far and *poof* went my parlay bet.

- The Giants covered vs. SF, which I thought was predictable. West Coast teams travelling to the East are getting killed this year. Add that to the fact the Giants have looked like the strongest team in the NFL and you get a solid bet.

- NO totally blew this game. My abusive boyfriend (CAR) strikes again. I'd be more pissed, but MIA lost too, so really this was a bad bet all around.

2. 4-team Teaser: [NYJ+3, TN -4.5, HOU -3, NYG -4.5] - WON $9

- The Jets pushed, by losing to OAK in overtime by 3. This sucked, my friends. How the hell did that happen? This cost me payout dollas. Mangenious my ass.

- TN just rolled KC. Much like the NYG game, you just knew this was gonna happen.

3. NYJ -3: LOST $5

4. TN -8.5: WON $$4.76

5. NO +130: LOST $5

Overall a slightly down week, lost less than $2. That Jets game was the turning point for me. I would have had $10 flip my way on the single-game bet, and an additional $6 payout on my teaser. I couldn't resist going back to the Multi-game bets this week, and it cost me again. Had I stuck to my top picks I probably would have gone 2 for 2 with TN and NYG... but possibly may have been teased enough by an underdog Saints team and lost anyways.

Week 8 Analysis tomorrow!

Thursday, October 16, 2008

I'm the Mongoose to your Cobra: Madcapping Week 7!

I must admit, my ego is severely bruised right now. I'm way down on the year, and need to get on a winning streak. Further complicating things were the Week 6 results. So many upsets... Anyway, here's how I see Week 7 shaking out....

tn (-9) @ KC: TN's coming off their bye week, they are 5-0 with no major injuries. KC is suspending Larry Johnson for the week. Is it possible KC is throwing the season? Screw Arrowhead, TN pounds them.

Madcapping: TN 24 - KC 6
Confidence: 80%

sd (PICK) @ BUF: After SD's drubbing ov NE (sooooo glad i resisted the urge to pick the upset) last week, this now looks like the game of the week. BUF is coming off their bye, and has the early game at home vs. a West Coat team. All signs point to Buffalo, but I was at the SD game last week, my friends. SD showed off its deep passing game and I'm not so sure BUF has anyone in their secondary to stop it.

Madcapping: SD 27 - BUF 21
Confidence: 50%

pit (-9.5) @ CIN: I still am not over how well B Roth played two SundayNights ago. Phenomenal effort to beat that tough JAX team. CIN played Dallas tough, but I keep hearing Carson is hurt, and I even heard his WRs are asking him to sit out. I don't know if you've watched Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it ain't pretty, and neither will this game.

Madcapping: PIT 21 - CIN 9
Confidence: 70%

bal (+3) @ MIA: Dolphins were dogs last week against Houston... and lost. Now they are favorites against Baltimore? Maybe if I keep losing my bookie will just pay me anyway? Weird thing is... I totally agree. I like MIA to win at home. J Porter is having a ferocious year, nobody's solved 'the wildcat' yet, and I like Pennington a lot more than Flacco.

Madcapping: BAL 17 - MIA 21
Confidence: 65%

min (+3) @ CHI: CHI should have lost that game before they should have won it, but they lost anyway. Make sense? Watch the highlights on, it was an insane game. So what about MIN... You got me.... Berrian Sucks, Frerrotte is ok, Peterson is good, but won't CHI just stack the box?

Madcapping: MIN 13 - CHI 16
Confidence: 50%

no (+3) @ CAR: As I explained last week, CAR is my abusive boyfriend. I played it smart last week and stayed away from them (They promptly got their asses handed to them by Gaycia, I mean Geighcia). So basically that means they get rocked this week by NO, who seem unstoppable on offense, right? This is a frickin tease game, I want to put it on the line for the Saints, but CAR is equally capable of showing up and winning, so what do i know...

Madcapping: NO 33 - CAR 28
Confidence: 50%

sf (-10.5) @ NYG: The Giants fell asleep at the wheel last week. Do not forget this team is bad-ass. They have a West Coast team coming to visit, all signs point to an annihilation. The spreads a little hefty, but still could be worth it.

Madcapping: SF 10 - NYG 30
Confidence: 75%

det (+9) @ HOU: DET is so bad they are 9 point dogs to 1 Win Houston! Aye aye. I didn't see it but i heard the new QB stepped out of bounds for a safety at one point last week. Houston gets its second win this week, but can they do more than 9? uh oh... smells like a teaser.

Madcapping: DET 9 - HOU 20
Confidence: 75%

NYJ (-3) @ OAK: The J-E-T-S have been playing well enough to beat weak teams, and OAK is definitely that. With only a field goal spread, i really like the Favres this week.

Madcapping: NYJ 24 - OAK 17
Confidence: 80%

cle (+7.5) @ WAS: Hey, wouldn't it be cool if CLE was suddenly back and took down the Skins one week after shocking the Giants? Only problem is that the Giants had a sloppy away game after cruising to victories game after game. WAS is at home, and they are coming off a loss of their own (to STL, pew). I'd like to see CLE win, but won't bet on it.

Madcapping: CLE 17 - WAS 19
Confidence: 50%

ind (-1) @ GB: I was wrong, this is the game of the week. Both good teams with too many losses already. GB has not been performing well lately though, so I'm giving this one to Indy.

Madcapping: IND 24 - GB 21
Confidence: 60%

sea (+10.5) @ TB: Suddenly Tampa's a rockstar team, eh? 10.5 is a big spread, but SEA's done all of nothing to warrant betting with them.

Madcapping: SEA 15 - TB 20
Confidence: 60%

den (+3) @ NE: So apparently all NE had to do to be favored was get creamed but a 2-3 team. Sometimes I don't get this whole thing. Here's my concern... SD went long ball over and over... and yes, over again last week. DEN has one of the top passing attacks in the league. Eddie Royal is out and I can't name the Broncos starting RB....

Madcapping: DEN 30 - NE 28
Confidence: 60%

Final picks tomorrow!

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Tie goes to the Loser

Won my PHI (-5) over SF bet, lost my DEN (-175) bet. Unfortunately I weighted my gambling on the 'safer' pick, DEN, so I lose again!

Even with a small loss this week, I feel pretty validated avoiding the teasers and parlays. I may have forced that DEN pick on myself this week, though. Probably better to just stick to one game, if that's all I like. Anyways, last week had difficult games to call, and the upsets bore that out:

STL over WAS - crazy
CLE over NYG - bonkers (although I called it)
ARI over DAL - looney
GB over SEA - this game was a pisser. Why the hell was SEA favored anyways?
ATL over CHI - that's two in a row, Falcons fans
JAX over DEN - what the hell happened?
TB over CAR - so glad i stayed away from CAR

Monday, October 13, 2008

Week 0666 - What. The. Eff.

I wiped.

Correction - the box wiped. Zer0. Percent. Return.

I have the NYG on the moneyline tonight with a possible payout of around $1.75.

It's never happened before, but it stands to reason that during the worst financial crisis in 80 years, the box would wipe.

Yikes. In the words of the esteemed Bill Simmons, I will now throw a Moltov cocktail at myself.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Cap's Away! Week 6 picks...

OK, so I've settled on my winners:

phi (-4.5) over SF - I called for a blowout in my Madcapping, and I'm backing up my mouth with my hard-earned ducats. The line dropped a half-point in my favor today, so i'm even more psyched.

DEN (-175) over JAX - I just like Denver at home. JAX hasn't looked good this year except for a game or two, they got beat up Sunday Night by PIT...

I wanted badly to put some cash on NE to upset, but just couldn't bring myself to do it. In consolation, though, I will be at the game in SD. Look for the White Patriots Jersey and Gold Sunglasses on TV. I'll probably be drinking....

"The Sports Guy" Hilarious Moment of the Week

This is from Sports Guy's Mailbag Today:

Q: I was telling my girlfriend about the Manny-Sox dynamic and the potential for a Dodgers/Red Sox World Series and she mentioned that in "A League of Their Own" the team traded the cranky younger sister because of the stressful clubhouse dynamic, and that the rival team ultimately prevailed because of this. I thought, "My God, I must tell Simmons." Please tell me this isn't an applicable analogy, or some way we can stop it.
-- Joe the Guy, Boston

SG: We can't stop it. It's too late. You went there and we can't go back. You have to live with it for the rest of your life. The thing is, it's the greatest possible comparison. I will now throw a Molotov cocktail at myself.

... another great 'hug some poisonous snakes' line

Week 06 - Box's Best Bets

The bets are in, the juice is low, and the final bets somewhat suck my nudsack.

Here they are:

Pick Vs Spd Bet % Bet Amt
BAL @ IND +4 52% $35.10
CAR @ TB +1 48% $32.78


Pick Vs ML Bet % Bet Amt
WAS v. STL -650 34% $9.37
NYG @ CLE -340 26% $7.20
BAL @ IND +170 21% $5.72
MIA @ HOU +130 18% $5.00

for totals of

Start Value
$s Add $s Sub
$0.00 $0.00
Total Bank
Bets Placed

So a nice chunk of a week, but this new iteration of the box makes me nervous, since it has the ability to cull out only one or two teams to bet. It means I'm placing fairly big bets on a fairly small sample size. Despite it being profitable historically, it still makes me nervous. I mean, BAL could just as easily implode as play well. And CAR? Well, who exactly is CAR? They beat a weaker-than-they-should-be SD team in week 1, a volatile CHI team, lost to a schizophrenic MIN team, and crushed two of the lowest teams in the league.

Also, it's rare when the box suggests some seriously terrible payouts on the moneyline. Winning isn't quite as sweet when the payout is like $2 on a $9 bet. Lame.

But, the box hasn't steered me tooooooooooo wrong yet. Hi ho silver, away!

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Week 06 - Bettor's Power Ranks

Now remember my friends, the bye teams are not included. Know who probably forgot? That one.

So here are the bye week team-less power ranks:

Power Ranks ▲▼ Rank GV Vol
1 NYG ▲1 1 BAL NO
2 BAL ▼1
3 CHI ▲4
4 DAL ▲1
5 NO ▲3 5 PHI DAL
6 WAS ▲3
7 CAR ▲3
8 PHI ▼2
9 TB ▼6
10 MIN ▲1
10 GB TB
11 ARI ▲1
12 SD ▼8
13 GB
14 IND
15 DEN ▼2
16 SF
17 JAC ▼2
18 NYJ
19 OAK
20 NE ▼3
21 MIA ▲1
22 ATL
23 HOU ▼5
24 CIN ▼4
25 DET ▼4
26 CLE
27 SEA ▼8 27 STL ATL
28 STL

* Excludes BYE week teams!
* Excludes BYE week teams!

First thing that pops on the overall ranks is the fact that Chicago is ranked 3rd. This is easily explained when you realize they're playing an Atlanta team that requires The Burner to break the century, and against the Bears resurgent D, I don't expect it to happen.

Also fun fact of the day: Sunday night's game is more important to NE in terms of playoff implications, but NE is one of the most volatile teams in terms of performance this year. What's that mean? Stay away from that shite.

MADCAPPING WEEK 6.. and McCain is creepy.

"Yoo know in Olaska, mavrick is a term and olso, you betcha *wink*, olso Irak is bad... "

Pretty much what I got out of Sarah Palin last week.

"Eh heh, my friends, heh... Obama wants to raise your taxes, my friends. Well not yours, but mine. Heh. Well not mine, eh heh, but my wife's. Well my 2nd wife, since I left my 1st wife in abject poverty after a car accident left her less physically attractive. And how 'bout Governor Palin's boobs, my friends? eh? eh? Arent they magnificient? eh?"

Pretty much what I think of McCain.

Here's what I think about football:

OAK (+7.5) @ NO: You know people talk about the Saints offense, and after watching them closely last night my opinion is this.... Brees is awesome, the playcalling is aggressive, but everything is sink-or-swim. They might turn the ball over 4 times, go three-and-out for an entire quarter, and then get on a roll and hang 30 points on you. Reminds me a little of the old Martz Rams. Run-first teams with patient defenses will beat them. But Oakland won't.

Madcapping: oak9 - NO 30

BAL (+4.5) @ IND: You just know The Ravens win this game, don't you? I'm getting that feeling that the Colts are just a shell of themselves. Manning misses the offseason, Harrison missed most of last year and now has felony charges to deal with (wasn't he supposed to be one of 'the good guys'?), the O-line is struggling, Bob Sanders is injured (shocker!).... and maybe Dungy's Cover 2 has been around too long. The Ravens won't win too many games, but leave a lot of corpses behind whenever they play.

Madcapping: bal 17 - IND 16

CIN (+6) @ NYJ: Maaaaaan, I was hoping Cincy might get some respect this week after freaking the hell out of Dallas Sunday... so I could bet against them of course. Favre might throuw for 7 touchdowns this week, or he might throw 7 picks. Stay clear of this game, my friends, eh heh.

Madcapping: cin 21 - NYJ 23

CAR (+1) @ TB: CAR is my abusive boyfriend. Everytime they win a game, I forget how they fucked me over, and bet on them again, only to get slapped around. TB has been more competitive than I figured they would be, so this game has me all sorts of messed up.

Madcapping: car 24 - TB 20

DET (+13) @ MIN: Big spreads have not been kind to the favorites this year, but do you really want to put money on DET? I don't.

Madcapping: det 13 - MIN 23

CHI (-3) @ ATL: This is a really interesting game to me, and one that would have sounded incredibly boring in August. ATL has an excitement about them and I find myself cheering for them when I'm not paying attention. CHI seems to have remembered how to play defense, and finally got their RB in rookie Forte. Common wisdom will be to say rookie Matt Ryan won't be able to perform against the tough CHI defense... I'm hoping Ryan proves them wrong, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Madcapping: chi 18 - ATL 17

MIA (+3) @ HOU: Guys! and Gals! *wink* HOU is 0-4, MIA just beat (badly) NE and SD to go 2-2. Nobody seems to have an answer to the 'Wildcat Offense' and.... MIA is the 'dog? whaaa? Bet the house on the moneyline and.... wait! I see what they are doing here. They WANT me to bet on MIA those Vegas bastards. They know that HOU is better than their record, losing freakishly last week to 3 turnovers in 4 minutes to the favored Colts, losing in Weeks 1-4 to PIT, JAX and TN. The Wildcat offense won't be effective anymore, since they can gameplan for it... oh those sneaky bastards! Bet the house on Houston! yeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaah!

Madcapping: mia 13 - HOU 24

STL (+13.5) @ WAS: WAS just took down DAL and PHI in consecutive road weeks. Damn impressive, and now they have the shitty Rams at home. I'm guessing their heads aren't gonna be completely in this one... what the pundits like to call a 'trap game'. I don't think WAS loses, but I wouldn't bet on them to cover the spread.

Madcapping: stl 13 - WAS 19

JAX (+3.5) @ DEN: Does anybody else feel like DEN plays JAX or TB every week? Just me? ok. So after recommending JAX last week, then (correctly) chickening out, JAX got upset by PIT. DEN's at home and their Defense showed up last week, so I like them. But there's that nasty 3.5 spread. Winning by a field goal still loses - it may be worth buying a half point from your bookie.

Madcapping: jax 19 - Den 22

PHI (-5) @ SF: Philly is 2-3. They have lost to three tough defenses in CHI, WAS and DAL. Just a gut feeling here, but I think they will be out for blood this week and annhilate the 49ers. I still like JTO, but PHI's defense is built to take advantage of Pass-First teams.

Madcapping: phi 40 - SF 20

DAL (-5) @ ARI: Dallas favored by less than a touchdown! Very tempting pick, here. I don't trust the Cards to win back-to-back games, and they get beat deep by teams that have the firepowre to exploit it (see Brett Favre 6 TD Passes two weeks ago). Big game for TO and Witten, methinks.

Madcapping: dal 35 - ARI 6

GB (+2) @ SEA: Rodger's shoulder injury concens me, but he was throwing deep last week so I suppose I should let it go. They lost last week to ATL, but for some reason I don't care. I feel like it was just meant to be for some reason. GB needs this win to get back to .500 ad SEA has not shown one thing this season as to why they can be counted on to win a game. Plus Vegas is giving the gambling world 2 points to play with.

Madcapping: gb 14 - SEA 12

NE (+5.5) @ SD: At first I really wanted to take the points on this game. NE seemed to figure out how to play ball again last week, and SD lost (again) to MIA. Then I realized why NE is 3-1: KC, NYJ, SF. Not exactly murderers row, there. SD lost to CAR, DEN (partly screwed by Ed Hochuli), and the same MIA "Wildcats" that beat NE. SD is 2-3, needs this game badly and is at home. I think their motivation is going to be very high and I think they win this game. Very sad for me to say this as a Pats fan (especially because I'll be at the game - woot!).

Madcapping: ne 12 - SD 20

NYG (-9) @ CLE: Man the Giants look good. Great line play, great deep passing, great defense, not a lot of mistakes. So of course this will be the upset of the week. I'm just not ballsy enough to call it.

nyg 30 - CLE 10

Week 06 - War of Attrition

These are the kind of weeks that continue to make me nervous. The box wants me to bet only two game, and they are both those kind of games that make me poo myself. Uh, there I go again...

Here are the box's best bets for the week:

Rank Pick Vs Spd Bet %
1 BAL @ IND +4.5 52%
2 CAR @ TB +1 48%
3 GB @ SEA +2
4 MIA @ HOU +3
5 ARI v. DAL +5
6 PHI @ SF -5
7 NYG @ CLE -9
8 OAK @ NO +7.5
9 ATL v. CHI +3
10 NE @ SD +5.5
11 WAS v. STL -13.5
12 MIN v. DET -13
13 DEN v. JAC -3.5
14 NYJ v. CIN -6

and on the moneyline:

Rank Pick Vs ML Bet %
1 WAS v. STL -700 34%
2 NYG @ CLE -340 27%
3 BAL @ IND +170 21%
4 MIA @ HOU +140 18%
5 GB @ SEA +110
6 CHI @ ATL -150
7 PHI @ SF -230
8 DEN v. JAC -175
9 NYJ v. CIN -250
10 MIN v. DET -650
11 SD v. NE -250
12 DAL @ ARI -220
13 NO v. OAK -320

Spread Comments:
Indy being favored after that shockingly lucky win is questionable. Especially given the fact that BAL should have taken TEN to the mat last week. Still, I hate betting against Peyton. He's so... shifty. It's like betting against Indiana Jones - chances are, he'll punch your face, take your gun, and ride a passing mine car to safety. Eloquent, eh?

I'm not liking a bet against TB. I think it's a loser. I will be handing over some serious cash on what I think is a truly untested CAR team. The upside? At least I'm not taking the 'Skins giving 13.5! Silly box.

Moneyline Comments:
Ugh. I can't believe the suggestion is for me to take WAS at MINUS 700. Worst. Suggestion. Ever. The payout on a $10 bet at -700 is $1.40. Now there's a cost benefit that sucks my nuds. I do love the MIA over HOU pick, though - MIA is a stronger team than they get credit for, with solid O and D lines. HOU? Not bad, but certainly not much better than MIA.

Power ranks to come tomorrow.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Week 05 - The Results

Well, I figure I should get some posts done while McCain clamors on like so much Walter Matthau in Grumpy Old Men.

The results are in, and they are (just barely) victorious. A big shout out to my boy Big Ben for coming through and making me profitable. You did me a solid there, winner.

Rank Pick Vs Spd Bet % Bet Amt W/L Payout
1 CHI @ DET -3.5 18% $10.29 W $20.10
2 BUF @ ARI +1.5 17% $9.91 L $0.00
3 BAL v. TEN +3 17% $9.89 P $9.89
4 TB @ DEN +3 17% $9.84 P $9.84
5 PIT @ JAC +4 16% $9.23 W $18.02
6 SF v. NE +3 16% $9.05 L $0.00


Rank Pick Vs ML Bet % Bet Amt W/L Payout
1 PIT @ JAC +175 39% $9.34 W $25.69
2 CHI @ DET -190 33% $7.96 W $12.15
3 SF v. NE +160 28% $6.76 L $0.00

So the end tally is a nice mild $13 payout. I might just go bail out a sandwich with my winnings!

I'm running the numbers now for the week, so hopefully more to come (and more regularly?).

By the way, nice win Capper. Though if you're going to bet GB, better do it soon - HUGE money came in early, the line dropped from +3 to +2 overnight.

Another Losing.... Wait I won? Week 5 Roundup

So at moment of truth I picked TN to cover the 3 point spread and also to win outright (@ BAL) in the Moneyline. TN won the game by 3 points, so my spread pick pushed, but I collected on my Moneyline bet. Huzzah!

The NFL landscape is getting less and less predictable. The Dolphins upset the Chargers, the Falcons did the same to Green Bay AT LAMBEAU. Buffalo takes its first loss, and Cincy played Dallas close til the end. Crazy Crazy.

All this nonsense makes it incredibly difficult to pick parlays and teasers correctly. There are simply not enough 'sure things' each week. Typically I would favor the Teasers in environments like this, but they got me killed 3 weeks in a row. I think I have the bleedeing stopped, and now it's time to erase more of my losses from weeks 2-4. For now I'm sticking with 1 or 2 games that I have the most confidence in, and betting big on fewer games rather than spreading out small bets on numerous parlays and teasers. It's still early in the week, but here are my initial favorite games:

chi (-2.5) over ATL - Matt Ryan's got big test against the Bears nasty Defense.

dal (-5.5) over ARI - ARI beat undefeated Buffalo, but that was after T. Edwards was knocked out of the game. DAL is a bully team and should teake The Cards' lunch money.

gb (+3) over SEA - This looks like a stunning over-reaction to last week's loss to ATL. I'll need to check the injury reports and make sure A Rodgers is going to play.

ne (+6) over SD - SD needs this game more than NE, so that makes me nervous. But don't you have to take the points when the patriots get them?

Friday, October 3, 2008

"The Sports Guy" Hilarious Moment of the Week

This week's addition is Bill Simmons describing how Al Davis looks suspiciously like freaky villains from the movies:

"In the span of five hours after his surreal press conference, my readers sent me e-mails comparing Davis to the following Hollywood characters: Jigsaw (from "Saw"); Skeksis ("Dark Crystal"); Bill Murray's dead boss ("Scrooged"); Mason Verger ("Hannibal"); Mr. Burns ("The Simpsons"); the Crypt Keeper; Emperor Palpatine; the first alien villain who lands in "Men in Black"; Jason Voorhees when he comes out of the water in "Friday the 13th" (the first one); and what Bernie's rotting corpse would have looked like if they stretched the series to a "Weekend at Bernie's V." I kept expecting Davis to suddenly jump from his seat and grab Scott Ostler or Tim Kawakami while screaming, "Give me his blood! I need to drink his blood right now!!!!!!"

Vampire Jokes rock.

Capper Changes Tactics - Week 5 Go-Time

After back-to-back huge losing weekend, I have decided I need to switch to a "pick of the week" format for a little while. There are two games I like best:

JAX (-4) over pit: JAX is a loaded team with a solid D and efficient offense. The problem they face is their banged up O-Line, which I believe they have fixed. The backups have had a few games to get adjusted, and they have returned to their fearsome running attack with Taylor and MJD. PIT on the other hand is without fast Willy Parker and Rothlisberger looks like David Carr back their getting sacked approximately 40 times per game. Throw in a tough Monday Night Game last week vs. brusing BAL and the fact that JAX is home, I think I've got a winner.

tn (-3) over BAL: BAL is better than I thought they'd be this year, but TN has just been awesome. I'll give a field goal here and say TN's D make Flacco's life miserable. BAL's D is stout of course, but I'm betting they can get just enough done to get the W.

The spreads here may make it risky, I'll decide whether or not to go Moneyline at the last minute probably.

Cap on!

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Week 05 - Bettor's Power Ranks - My Pats Suck

Well, all but the Packers game are reporting now (the injury to Rodgers is screwing it all up). And that means the power ranks are in, and they're looking good in my opinion.

Power Ranks ▲▼
1 TEN ▲1
2 BAL ▼1
4 TB ▲4
5 SD ▲2
6 DAL ▼2
7 PHI ▼4
8 CHI ▲3
9 NO ▲5
10 WAS ▲3
11 CAR ▲4
12 MIN ▼3
13 ARI ▼3
14 BUF ▼9
15 DEN ▼9
16 IND
17 JAC
18 SF ▼6
19 PIT ▼3
20 NE
21 HOU ▼2
22 SEA
23 CIN ▼5
24 DET
25 MIA
26 KC ▼6

A lot to like there - TEN at the top makes total sense, especially given how consistent they've been with (I can't believe it) Kerry Collins. And it's clear the theme of the first quarter of the year is defense, with BAL, TB, and NYG all floating to the top.

The real question is - why NE, why??? It's an overreaction to the MIA game before the bye, but it's still ugly. And here's why:

Rank GV Vol

Note the 23rd ranked volatility. Sigh. Here are the preliminary bets:

Rank Pick Vs Spd
1 CHI @ DET -3.5
2 BUF @ ARI +1
3 BAL v. TEN +3
4 TB @ DEN +3
5 PIT @ JAC +4
6 SF v. NE +3
7 IND @ HOU -3
8 MIN @ NO +3
9 MIA v. SD +6.5
10 WAS @ PHI +6
11 NYG v. SEA -7
12 CAR v. KC -9.5
13 CIN @ DAL +17


Rank Pick Vs ML
1 PIT @ JAC +175
2 CHI @ DET -190
3 SF v. NE +160
4 TB @ DEN +150
5 BAL v. TEN +125
6 IND @ HOU -170
7 CAR v. KC -450
8 NYG v. SEA -320
9 NO v. MIN -165
10 PHI v. WAS -260
11 SD @ MIA -260

Loving the PIT pick on both the ML and Spread. Scared to death of CHI, this one feels like a trap. In DET after a lucky win against PHI, how long can CHI's defense keep them in every game? Orton is bound to screw the pooch, I'm just hoping not this week.

More to come...