Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Another Losing.... Wait I won? Week 5 Roundup

So at moment of truth I picked TN to cover the 3 point spread and also to win outright (@ BAL) in the Moneyline. TN won the game by 3 points, so my spread pick pushed, but I collected on my Moneyline bet. Huzzah!

The NFL landscape is getting less and less predictable. The Dolphins upset the Chargers, the Falcons did the same to Green Bay AT LAMBEAU. Buffalo takes its first loss, and Cincy played Dallas close til the end. Crazy Crazy.

All this nonsense makes it incredibly difficult to pick parlays and teasers correctly. There are simply not enough 'sure things' each week. Typically I would favor the Teasers in environments like this, but they got me killed 3 weeks in a row. I think I have the bleedeing stopped, and now it's time to erase more of my losses from weeks 2-4. For now I'm sticking with 1 or 2 games that I have the most confidence in, and betting big on fewer games rather than spreading out small bets on numerous parlays and teasers. It's still early in the week, but here are my initial favorite games:

chi (-2.5) over ATL - Matt Ryan's got big test against the Bears nasty Defense.

dal (-5.5) over ARI - ARI beat undefeated Buffalo, but that was after T. Edwards was knocked out of the game. DAL is a bully team and should teake The Cards' lunch money.

gb (+3) over SEA - This looks like a stunning over-reaction to last week's loss to ATL. I'll need to check the injury reports and make sure A Rodgers is going to play.

ne (+6) over SD - SD needs this game more than NE, so that makes me nervous. But don't you have to take the points when the patriots get them?

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