So I was up nice and big - to the tune of 80% - on my bets this past
week. Still haven't broken even from the previous two weeks, but I
found a nice way to lower my risk and my returns have been pretty good.
My big money was won on a parlay of ARI, CHI, and ATL. But I managed
to pick TEN correctly (which was ridiculously close) and I only missed
on my NYJ pick (and then just barely too).
All in all, a good week. This week though my worst fears came true:
the box says take WAS as my number one pick. It's just throwing my money
away... sigh. I did build in a new feature that tells me if the spread is a multiple of 7 or 3 or a combination (ie, 10), and therefore tells me that I need to bet swiftly to lock in a favorable spread (better to push than lose that half point).
Showing posts with label week 07 2007. Show all posts
Showing posts with label week 07 2007. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Week 7 - Box's Results
Week 7 Final Bets per the Box are as follows:
| Results for Week 7 |
| Spread: TB +2.5 (-110) v. DET - $5.03 wins $0.00 |
| Spread: TEN -1 (-110) v. HOU - $7.72 wins $14.74 |
| Spread: ARI +9 (-110) v. WAS - $5.00 wins $9.55 |
| Moneyline: NYG (-450) v. SF - $5.00 wins $6.11 |
| Parlay: NO (-450) v. ATL, ARI +9 (-110) v. WAS, TB (120) v. DET, NYG (-450) v. SF - $5.00 wins $0.00 |
| Parlay: ATL +9 (-120) v. NO, ARI +9 (-110) v. WAS, CHI +5 (-110) v. PHI - $5.00 wins $33.41 |
| Parlay: NO (-450) v. ATL, TB (120) v. DET, NYG (-450) v. SF - $5.00 wins $0.00 |
| Results for Week 7 | |
| Bet Totals: | $37.75 |
| Potential Winnings: | $83.46 |
| Potential Payouts: | $63.81 |
| Actual Profit: | $26.06 |
| %s: Week 7 | 69.03% |
Friday, October 19, 2007
Week 7 - I Agree With Your Assessments, Prepare for Apocolypse
agree with your assessments. All of them, in fact. I'm counting on
the fact that TEN def is actually good, BUF can put together a win at
home (a la the home dog pick of BUF over NYJ a few weeks ago), and NE
just stops caring about killing a 0-5 team. The NYG game I'm staying
away from, except to be NYG to win. I think AZ can pound the ground
with Edge better than it has been, and definitely will now that Rattay
is in. They'll force Rattay to make just enough plays to win, but this
game will be Edge v. WAS. I still admit it's a long shot, but if the
game goes to the ground, I don't see it as a 9 point lay.
I'm truly hoping for a PIT implosion, but with Hines Ward back, it
ain't
gonna happen. Maybe Shanahan has used the bye week to teach D? I hope
so.
TB should be favored in this game, I agree. And KC too, especially
with
LJ picking it up (even if Priest has resumed backup duties).
In terms of choosing games that won bets v. picks, I've been betting on
losers and missing some winners - I need to find a way to truly gauge
how risky a pick is. Maybe I can use that variance score to do that...
hmmm....
the fact that TEN def is actually good, BUF can put together a win at
home (a la the home dog pick of BUF over NYJ a few weeks ago), and NE
just stops caring about killing a 0-5 team. The NYG game I'm staying
away from, except to be NYG to win. I think AZ can pound the ground
with Edge better than it has been, and definitely will now that Rattay
is in. They'll force Rattay to make just enough plays to win, but this
game will be Edge v. WAS. I still admit it's a long shot, but if the
game goes to the ground, I don't see it as a 9 point lay.
I'm truly hoping for a PIT implosion, but with Hines Ward back, it
ain't
gonna happen. Maybe Shanahan has used the bye week to teach D? I hope
so.
TB should be favored in this game, I agree. And KC too, especially
with
LJ picking it up (even if Priest has resumed backup duties).
In terms of choosing games that won bets v. picks, I've been betting on
losers and missing some winners - I need to find a way to truly gauge
how risky a pick is. Maybe I can use that variance score to do that...
hmmm....
Week 7 - Boxes Make Me Nervous
Wow, there are a few spread box games that make me nervous:
TEN (-1) @ HOU: VY is injured. HOU has a top ten rush defense. Shaub is real.
BUF (+3) vs BAL: I actually like Trent Edwards, but their offense scores no touchdowns. BAL, i think, is reguarly overrated, but I actually think their chances go up without McNair, who sadly is just not good anymore. I handicapped this game at BUF +6 prior to looking at the Vegas spreads.
MIA (+16.5) vs NE: Betting against NE = throwing away money.
SF (+9) @ NYG: I know this is a lot of points to lay, but these teams are going in opposite directions right now and I can definitely see NYG blow out SF at home.
ARI (+9) @ WAS: Similar situation as with sf vs nyg. backup quarterback, in this case it's Tim Rattay, and teams going in opposite directions. I can see WAS blowing them out at home.
DEN (+3) vs PIT: PIT has a top rushing attack, DEN has the #31 run defense. PIT looks like a top 3 team in all phases, DEN is tripping over itself. The only thing DEN has going is that the game is at Mile High. However, Indy went there and blew them out a couple weeks ago.
3. Spread box picks that I like:
TB (+2) @ DET: DET scares me, since you never know when they are going to put up 50 points. However, I agree with you here. I handicapped this game at TB -2, so I would have actually laid two points to bet TB in this game. Seeing them as the dog makes me happy.
KC (+3) @ OAK: KC has cost me a lot of money this year, playing spoiler. I bet against them in the SD game and the MIN game. They can definitely put a game together, and although I think OAK is on the rise, that means they'll beat bad teams, not good teams. I handicapped this game at KC -2, so once again I was pretty psyched to see KC as the dog.
4. All in! So if I stick with my all-in plan, i'm gonna pick between my top 3 favorites:
PIT (-3.5) @ DEN
TB (+2) @ DET
KC (+3) @ OAK
TEN (-1) @ HOU: VY is injured. HOU has a top ten rush defense. Shaub is real.
BUF (+3) vs BAL: I actually like Trent Edwards, but their offense scores no touchdowns. BAL, i think, is reguarly overrated, but I actually think their chances go up without McNair, who sadly is just not good anymore. I handicapped this game at BUF +6 prior to looking at the Vegas spreads.
MIA (+16.5) vs NE: Betting against NE = throwing away money.
SF (+9) @ NYG: I know this is a lot of points to lay, but these teams are going in opposite directions right now and I can definitely see NYG blow out SF at home.
ARI (+9) @ WAS: Similar situation as with sf vs nyg. backup quarterback, in this case it's Tim Rattay, and teams going in opposite directions. I can see WAS blowing them out at home.
DEN (+3) vs PIT: PIT has a top rushing attack, DEN has the #31 run defense. PIT looks like a top 3 team in all phases, DEN is tripping over itself. The only thing DEN has going is that the game is at Mile High. However, Indy went there and blew them out a couple weeks ago.
3. Spread box picks that I like:
TB (+2) @ DET: DET scares me, since you never know when they are going to put up 50 points. However, I agree with you here. I handicapped this game at TB -2, so I would have actually laid two points to bet TB in this game. Seeing them as the dog makes me happy.
KC (+3) @ OAK: KC has cost me a lot of money this year, playing spoiler. I bet against them in the SD game and the MIN game. They can definitely put a game together, and although I think OAK is on the rise, that means they'll beat bad teams, not good teams. I handicapped this game at KC -2, so once again I was pretty psyched to see KC as the dog.
4. All in! So if I stick with my all-in plan, i'm gonna pick between my top 3 favorites:
PIT (-3.5) @ DEN
TB (+2) @ DET
KC (+3) @ OAK
Week 7 - Box to Try a New Strategy; Win
Ha! I would say the all in strategy could be genius, except that if I
did that on my top picks in the last two weeks, I'd be all broke.
So I went back in the system, and rather than trying to rewrite the
magic, I decided the best thing to do was simplify my betting and
concentrate on which games won BETS rather than PICKS. It seemed like
an oxymoron to me, since if I pick right, I should win the bets, but
turns out I'm picking all the wrong games and all the wrong bets (bad
lays, bad picks, high volatility, and bad parlays).
I've also decided to bet $37.75 (arbitrary number) max or 75.5% of
anything less than $50. So even if my bankroll is $200, I'm only
betting $37.75 until I'm satisfied I can win consistently. Actually,
if
I'm at $200, I'll probably just break even. Sigh.
As for this week's picks, the system took ONE favorite this week. Just
one. So it's another dog day afternoon. Now it's a matter of taking
the cream of the picks. Here's the rotation (asterisks on bets I took):
(Manny up, 2 on, 2 out - sox are killing em 7-1 right now)
They Box Picks (spread):
TEN -1 Away **
BUF 3 Home
MIA 16.5 Home
ATL 9 Away
TB 2.5 Away **
SF 9 Away
ARI 9 Away **
KC 3 Away
NYJ 6 Away
MIN 9.5 Away
STL 8.5 Away
CHI 5 Away
DEN 3.5 Home
JAC 3 Home
Money Line:
TEN
BAL
NE
NO
TB
NYG **
WAS
KC
CIN
DAL
SEA
PHI
PIT
IND
My Parlays:
ARI +9, CHI +5, ATL +9
NYG, TB, NO
ARI +9, NYG, TB, NO
Now, granted there is some duplication in my parlays. But I did a
historical parlay study now, and the payouts have been good - 6
negative
weeks in a 30 week span (so about 80% profitable), and when I win, I
usually win big (a few 200+% weeks in there). But my next step is to
work into the system some sort of algorithm to bet the "underbet" games
- basically avoid marquee matchups and play low volume bets with nicer
payouts and lower volatility. But I have no idea how to do that yet.
My confidence equals zero right now, so we'll see how this turns out.
did that on my top picks in the last two weeks, I'd be all broke.
So I went back in the system, and rather than trying to rewrite the
magic, I decided the best thing to do was simplify my betting and
concentrate on which games won BETS rather than PICKS. It seemed like
an oxymoron to me, since if I pick right, I should win the bets, but
turns out I'm picking all the wrong games and all the wrong bets (bad
lays, bad picks, high volatility, and bad parlays).
I've also decided to bet $37.75 (arbitrary number) max or 75.5% of
anything less than $50. So even if my bankroll is $200, I'm only
betting $37.75 until I'm satisfied I can win consistently. Actually,
if
I'm at $200, I'll probably just break even. Sigh.
As for this week's picks, the system took ONE favorite this week. Just
one. So it's another dog day afternoon. Now it's a matter of taking
the cream of the picks. Here's the rotation (asterisks on bets I took):
(Manny up, 2 on, 2 out - sox are killing em 7-1 right now)
They Box Picks (spread):
TEN -1 Away **
BUF 3 Home
MIA 16.5 Home
ATL 9 Away
TB 2.5 Away **
SF 9 Away
ARI 9 Away **
KC 3 Away
NYJ 6 Away
MIN 9.5 Away
STL 8.5 Away
CHI 5 Away
DEN 3.5 Home
JAC 3 Home
Money Line:
TEN
BAL
NE
NO
TB
NYG **
WAS
KC
CIN
DAL
SEA
PHI
PIT
IND
My Parlays:
ARI +9, CHI +5, ATL +9
NYG, TB, NO
ARI +9, NYG, TB, NO
Now, granted there is some duplication in my parlays. But I did a
historical parlay study now, and the payouts have been good - 6
negative
weeks in a 30 week span (so about 80% profitable), and when I win, I
usually win big (a few 200+% weeks in there). But my next step is to
work into the system some sort of algorithm to bet the "underbet" games
- basically avoid marquee matchups and play low volume bets with nicer
payouts and lower volatility. But I have no idea how to do that yet.
My confidence equals zero right now, so we'll see how this turns out.
Week 7 - First Impressions - Break the Bank
1. So what did you mean by choosing games that won bets instead of picks? I didn't really follow the difference.
2. Wow, there are a few spread box games that make me nervous:
TEN (-1) @ HOU: VY is injured. HOU has a top ten rush defense. Shaub is real.
BUF (+3) vs BAL: I actually like Trent Edwards, but their offense scores no touchdowns. BAL, i think, is reguarly overrated, but I actually think their chances go up without McNair, who sadly is just not good anymore. I handicapped this game at BUF +6 prior to looking at the Vegas spreads.
MIA (+16.5) vs NE: Betting against NE = throwing away money.
SF (+9) @ NYG: I know this is a lot of points to lay, but these teams are going in opposite directions right now and I can definitely see NYG blow out SF at home.
ARI (+9) @ WAS: Similar situation as with sf vs nyg. backup quarterback, in this case it's Tim Rattay, and teams going in opposite directions. I can see WAS blowing them out at home.
DEN (+3) vs PIT: PIT has a top rushing attack, DEN has the #31 run defense. PIT looks like a top 3 team in all phases, DEN is tripping over itself. The only thing DEN has going is that the game is at Mile High. However, Indy went there and blew them out a couple weeks ago.
3. Spread box picks that I like:
TB (+2) @ DET: DET scares me, since you never know when they are going to put up 50 points. However, I agree with you here. I handicapped this game at TB -2, so I would have actually laid two points to bet TB in this game. Seeing them as the dog makes me happy.
KC (+3) @ OAK: KC has cost me a lot of money this year, playing spoiler. I bet against them in the SD game and the MIN game. They can definitely put a game together, and although I think OAK is on the rise, that means they'll beat bad teams, not good teams. I handicapped this game at KC -2, so once again I was pretty psyched to see KC as the dog.
4. All in! So if I stick with my all-in plan, i'm gonna pick between my top 3 favorites:
PIT (-3.5) @ DEN
TB (+2) @ DET
KC (+3) @ OAK
2. Wow, there are a few spread box games that make me nervous:
TEN (-1) @ HOU: VY is injured. HOU has a top ten rush defense. Shaub is real.
BUF (+3) vs BAL: I actually like Trent Edwards, but their offense scores no touchdowns. BAL, i think, is reguarly overrated, but I actually think their chances go up without McNair, who sadly is just not good anymore. I handicapped this game at BUF +6 prior to looking at the Vegas spreads.
MIA (+16.5) vs NE: Betting against NE = throwing away money.
SF (+9) @ NYG: I know this is a lot of points to lay, but these teams are going in opposite directions right now and I can definitely see NYG blow out SF at home.
ARI (+9) @ WAS: Similar situation as with sf vs nyg. backup quarterback, in this case it's Tim Rattay, and teams going in opposite directions. I can see WAS blowing them out at home.
DEN (+3) vs PIT: PIT has a top rushing attack, DEN has the #31 run defense. PIT looks like a top 3 team in all phases, DEN is tripping over itself. The only thing DEN has going is that the game is at Mile High. However, Indy went there and blew them out a couple weeks ago.
3. Spread box picks that I like:
TB (+2) @ DET: DET scares me, since you never know when they are going to put up 50 points. However, I agree with you here. I handicapped this game at TB -2, so I would have actually laid two points to bet TB in this game. Seeing them as the dog makes me happy.
KC (+3) @ OAK: KC has cost me a lot of money this year, playing spoiler. I bet against them in the SD game and the MIN game. They can definitely put a game together, and although I think OAK is on the rise, that means they'll beat bad teams, not good teams. I handicapped this game at KC -2, so once again I was pretty psyched to see KC as the dog.
4. All in! So if I stick with my all-in plan, i'm gonna pick between my top 3 favorites:
PIT (-3.5) @ DEN
TB (+2) @ DET
KC (+3) @ OAK
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Week 7 - Box's Final Bets
Week 7 Final Bets per the Box are as follows:
| Bets for Week 7 |
| Spread: TB +2.5 (-110) v. DET - $5.03 to win $4.57 |
| Spread: TEN -1 (-110) v. HOU - $7.72 to win $7.02 |
| Spread: ARI +9 (-110) v. WAS - $5.00 to win $4.55 |
| Moneyline: NYG (-450) v. SF - $5.00 to win $1.11 |
| Parlay: NO (-450) v. ATL, ARI +9 (-110) v. WAS, TB (120) v. DET, NYG (-450) v. SF - $5.00 to win $26.37 |
| Parlay: ATL +9 (-120) v. NO, ARI +9 (-110) v. WAS, CHI +5 (-110) v. PHI - $5.00 to win $28.41 |
| Parlay: NO (-450) v. ATL, TB (120) v. DET, NYG (-450) v. SF - $5.00 to win $11.43 |
| Bet Totals: | $37.75 |
| Potential Winnings: | $83.46 |
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