Week 09 - Back From The Grave!!!

So, I've been a combination of a.) very busy, and b.) totally demoralized. Right up until Week 8's results.

After a big goose egg in Week 6, followed by a virtual goose egg in Week 7, Week 8 was a week of love. 100% victory. Still way down on the year, but there's a nice upside.

I had some serious tweaking to do on the moneyline side of the box, it just wasn't working as I wanted. However, it seems to have paid off. Here are the week 6 - 8 bets and results:

Week 0666:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	BAL	@ IND	+4	52%	$35.10	L	$0.00
2	CAR	@ TB	+1	48%	$32.78	L	$0.00

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	WAS	v. STL	-650	34%	$9.37	L	$0.00
2	NYG	@ CLE	-340	26%	$7.20	L	$0.00
3	BAL	@ IND	+170	21%	$5.72	L	$0.00
4	MIA	@ HOU	+130	18%	$5.00	L	$0.00

Not so good. Here's Week 7, the follow up to not so good:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	SD	@ BUF	0	34%	$11.19	L	$0.00
2	NO	@ CAR	+3	33%	$11.10	L	$0.00
3	DEN	@ NE	+3	33%	$11.08	L	$0.00

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	TEN	@ KC	-350	42%	$7.53	W	$9.68
2	DEN	@ NE	+140	30%	$5.42	L	$0.00
3	NO	@ CAR	+130	28%	$5.00	L	$0.00

Ridiculous. I watched my bank go from @ $200 to @ $65 in 2 weeks. But, there's a small upside in Week 8:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	NO	v. SD	+3	51%	$10.84	W	$20.70
2	NYG	@ PIT	+2.5	49%	$10.58	W	$20.66

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	NYG	@ PIT	+120	50%	$5.01	W	$11.01
2	TEN	v. IND	-200	50%	$5.00	W	$7.50

Tough few weeks, to say the least. Apparently, the box is highly correlated to the S&P 500 (if you can figure that one out, I'd love to know). Here's where we stand today:

Start Value
$120.00
$s Add	$s Sub
$100.00	$0.00
Total Bank
$220.00
Bets Placed
$692.66
Bet Income
-$122.90
Ending Bank
$97.10
Total Return
-55.87%

But this week, we're back in scary territory. Lots of money, very few bets. Sigh. But the bets are placed, and here they are:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt
1	BAL	@ CLE	+1.5	100%	$22.46
2	MIA	@ DEN	+3
3	ARI	@ STL	-3
4	HOU	@ MIN	+4.5
5	ATL	@ OAK	-3
6	TB	@ KC	-9
7	PHI	v. SEA	-7
8	PIT	@ WAS	+1.5
9	NYJ	@ BUF	+5.5
10	GB	@ TEN	+5.5
11	NE	@ IND	+5.5
12	DET	@ CHI	+13
13	NYG	v. DAL	-9
14	JAC	@ CIN	-8

and...

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt
1	TB	@ KC	-420	30%	$8.62
2	PHI	v. SEA	-300	27%	$7.92
3	CHI	v. DET	-650	25%	$7.32
4	MIA	@ DEN	+160	17%	$5.00
5	ARI	@ STL	-150
6	NYG	v. DAL	-400
7	ATL	@ OAK	-145
8	BUF	v. NYJ	-230
9	TEN	v. GB	-240
10	IND	v. NE	-250
11	MIN	v. HOU	-210
12	JAC	@ CIN	-360

The moneylines now focus on winners more than payouts, which was part of the problem. I had it focusing on payouts equally, which meant some dicey games. It was a big hit or miss method, instead of this way which is low risk, low return hedge to spread betting. Low risk makes more sense as a hedge.

I have to get back to work, but it's good to be back Capper.

Tie goes to the Loser

Won my PHI (-5) over SF bet, lost my DEN (-175) bet. Unfortunately I weighted my gambling on the 'safer' pick, DEN, so I lose again!

Even with a small loss this week, I feel pretty validated avoiding the teasers and parlays. I may have forced that DEN pick on myself this week, though. Probably better to just stick to one game, if that's all I like. Anyways, last week had difficult games to call, and the upsets bore that out:

STL over WAS - crazy
CLE over NYG - bonkers (although I called it)
ARI over DAL - looney
GB over SEA - this game was a pisser. Why the hell was SEA favored anyways?
ATL over CHI - that's two in a row, Falcons fans
JAX over DEN - what the hell happened?
TB over CAR - so glad i stayed away from CAR

Week 0666 - What. The. Eff.

I wiped.

Correction - the box wiped. Zer0. Percent. Return.

I have the NYG on the moneyline tonight with a possible payout of around $1.75.

It's never happened before, but it stands to reason that during the worst financial crisis in 80 years, the box would wipe.

Yikes. In the words of the esteemed Bill Simmons, I will now throw a Moltov cocktail at myself.

Cap's Away! Week 6 picks...

OK, so I've settled on my winners:

phi (-4.5) over SF - I called for a blowout in my Madcapping, and I'm backing up my mouth with my hard-earned ducats. The line dropped a half-point in my favor today, so i'm even more psyched.

DEN (-175) over JAX - I just like Denver at home. JAX hasn't looked good this year except for a game or two, they got beat up Sunday Night by PIT...

I wanted badly to put some cash on NE to upset, but just couldn't bring myself to do it. In consolation, though, I will be at the game in SD. Look for the White Patriots Jersey and Gold Sunglasses on TV. I'll probably be drinking....

Week 06 - Box's Best Bets

The bets are in, the juice is low, and the final bets somewhat suck my nudsack.

Here they are:

Pick Vs Spd Bet % Bet Amt
BAL @ IND +4 52% $35.10
CAR @ TB +1 48% $32.78

and

Pick Vs ML Bet % Bet Amt
WAS v. STL -650 34% $9.37
NYG @ CLE -340 26% $7.20
BAL @ IND +170 21% $5.72
MIA @ HOU +130 18% $5.00

for totals of

Start Value
$205.46
$s Add $s Sub
$0.00 $0.00
Total Bank
$205.46
Bets Placed
$95.18

So a nice chunk of a week, but this new iteration of the box makes me nervous, since it has the ability to cull out only one or two teams to bet. It means I'm placing fairly big bets on a fairly small sample size. Despite it being profitable historically, it still makes me nervous. I mean, BAL could just as easily implode as play well. And CAR? Well, who exactly is CAR? They beat a weaker-than-they-should-be SD team in week 1, a volatile CHI team, lost to a schizophrenic MIN team, and crushed two of the lowest teams in the league.

Also, it's rare when the box suggests some seriously terrible payouts on the moneyline. Winning isn't quite as sweet when the payout is like $2 on a $9 bet. Lame.

But, the box hasn't steered me tooooooooooo wrong yet. Hi ho silver, away!

Week 06 - Bettor's Power Ranks

Now remember my friends, the bye teams are not included. Know who probably forgot? That one.

So here are the bye week team-less power ranks:

Power Ranks		▲▼		Rank	GV	Vol
1	NYG	▲1		1	BAL	NO
2	BAL	▼1		2	JAC	CHI
3	CHI	▲4		3	MIN	DET
4	DAL	▲1		4	NO	MIN
5	NO	▲3		5	PHI	DAL
6	WAS	▲3		6	SF	SD
7	CAR	▲3		7	NE	CAR
8	PHI	▼2		8	NYG	WAS
9	TB	▼6		9	ATL	IND
10	MIN	▲1		10	GB	TB
11	ARI	▲1		11	IND	GB
12	SD	▼8		12	CAR	ARI
13	GB			13	DAL	JAC
14	IND			14	WAS	NYG
15	DEN	▼2		15	ARI	HOU
16	SF			16	CHI	NYJ
17	JAC	▼2		17	DEN	SF
18	NYJ			18	SD	PHI
19	OAK			19	TB	BAL
20	NE	▼3		20	MIA	OAK
21	MIA	▲1		21	NYJ	DEN
22	ATL			22	OAK	CIN
23	HOU	▼5		23	HOU	NE
24	CIN	▼4		24	CLE	MIA
25	DET	▼4		25	DET	CLE
26	CLE			26	SEA	SEA
27	SEA	▼8		27	STL	ATL
28	STL			28	CIN	STL
* Excludes BYE week teams!				* Excludes BYE week teams!

First thing that pops on the overall ranks is the fact that Chicago is ranked 3rd. This is easily explained when you realize they're playing an Atlanta team that requires The Burner to break the century, and against the Bears resurgent D, I don't expect it to happen.

Also fun fact of the day: Sunday night's game is more important to NE in terms of playoff implications, but NE is one of the most volatile teams in terms of performance this year. What's that mean? Stay away from that shite.

MADCAPPING WEEK 6.. and McCain is creepy.

"Yoo know in Olaska, mavrick is a term and olso, you betcha *wink*, olso Irak is bad... "

Pretty much what I got out of Sarah Palin last week.

"Eh heh, my friends, heh... Obama wants to raise your taxes, my friends. Well not yours, but mine. Heh. Well not mine, eh heh, but my wife's. Well my 2nd wife, since I left my 1st wife in abject poverty after a car accident left her less physically attractive. And how 'bout Governor Palin's boobs, my friends? eh? eh? Arent they magnificient? eh?"

Pretty much what I think of McCain.

Here's what I think about football:

OAK (+7.5) @ NO: You know people talk about the Saints offense, and after watching them closely last night my opinion is this.... Brees is awesome, the playcalling is aggressive, but everything is sink-or-swim. They might turn the ball over 4 times, go three-and-out for an entire quarter, and then get on a roll and hang 30 points on you. Reminds me a little of the old Martz Rams. Run-first teams with patient defenses will beat them. But Oakland won't.

Madcapping: oak9 - NO 30


BAL (+4.5) @ IND: You just know The Ravens win this game, don't you? I'm getting that feeling that the Colts are just a shell of themselves. Manning misses the offseason, Harrison missed most of last year and now has felony charges to deal with (wasn't he supposed to be one of 'the good guys'?), the O-line is struggling, Bob Sanders is injured (shocker!).... and maybe Dungy's Cover 2 has been around too long. The Ravens won't win too many games, but leave a lot of corpses behind whenever they play.

Madcapping: bal 17 - IND 16


CIN (+6) @ NYJ: Maaaaaan, I was hoping Cincy might get some respect this week after freaking the hell out of Dallas Sunday... so I could bet against them of course. Favre might throuw for 7 touchdowns this week, or he might throw 7 picks. Stay clear of this game, my friends, eh heh.

Madcapping: cin 21 - NYJ 23


CAR (+1) @ TB: CAR is my abusive boyfriend. Everytime they win a game, I forget how they fucked me over, and bet on them again, only to get slapped around. TB has been more competitive than I figured they would be, so this game has me all sorts of messed up.

Madcapping: car 24 - TB 20


DET (+13) @ MIN: Big spreads have not been kind to the favorites this year, but do you really want to put money on DET? I don't.

Madcapping: det 13 - MIN 23


CHI (-3) @ ATL: This is a really interesting game to me, and one that would have sounded incredibly boring in August. ATL has an excitement about them and I find myself cheering for them when I'm not paying attention. CHI seems to have remembered how to play defense, and finally got their RB in rookie Forte. Common wisdom will be to say rookie Matt Ryan won't be able to perform against the tough CHI defense... I'm hoping Ryan proves them wrong, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Madcapping: chi 18 - ATL 17


MIA (+3) @ HOU: Guys! and Gals! *wink* HOU is 0-4, MIA just beat (badly) NE and SD to go 2-2. Nobody seems to have an answer to the 'Wildcat Offense' and.... MIA is the 'dog? whaaa? Bet the house on the moneyline and.... wait! I see what they are doing here. They WANT me to bet on MIA those Vegas bastards. They know that HOU is better than their record, losing freakishly last week to 3 turnovers in 4 minutes to the favored Colts, losing in Weeks 1-4 to PIT, JAX and TN. The Wildcat offense won't be effective anymore, since they can gameplan for it... oh those sneaky bastards! Bet the house on Houston! yeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaah!

Madcapping: mia 13 - HOU 24


STL (+13.5) @ WAS: WAS just took down DAL and PHI in consecutive road weeks. Damn impressive, and now they have the shitty Rams at home. I'm guessing their heads aren't gonna be completely in this one... what the pundits like to call a 'trap game'. I don't think WAS loses, but I wouldn't bet on them to cover the spread.

Madcapping: stl 13 - WAS 19


JAX (+3.5) @ DEN: Does anybody else feel like DEN plays JAX or TB every week? Just me? ok. So after recommending JAX last week, then (correctly) chickening out, JAX got upset by PIT. DEN's at home and their Defense showed up last week, so I like them. But there's that nasty 3.5 spread. Winning by a field goal still loses - it may be worth buying a half point from your bookie.

Madcapping: jax 19 - Den 22


PHI (-5) @ SF: Philly is 2-3. They have lost to three tough defenses in CHI, WAS and DAL. Just a gut feeling here, but I think they will be out for blood this week and annhilate the 49ers. I still like JTO, but PHI's defense is built to take advantage of Pass-First teams.

Madcapping: phi 40 - SF 20


DAL (-5) @ ARI: Dallas favored by less than a touchdown! Very tempting pick, here. I don't trust the Cards to win back-to-back games, and they get beat deep by teams that have the firepowre to exploit it (see Brett Favre 6 TD Passes two weeks ago). Big game for TO and Witten, methinks.

Madcapping: dal 35 - ARI 6


GB (+2) @ SEA: Rodger's shoulder injury concens me, but he was throwing deep last week so I suppose I should let it go. They lost last week to ATL, but for some reason I don't care. I feel like it was just meant to be for some reason. GB needs this win to get back to .500 ad SEA has not shown one thing this season as to why they can be counted on to win a game. Plus Vegas is giving the gambling world 2 points to play with.

Madcapping: gb 14 - SEA 12


NE (+5.5) @ SD: At first I really wanted to take the points on this game. NE seemed to figure out how to play ball again last week, and SD lost (again) to MIA. Then I realized why NE is 3-1: KC, NYJ, SF. Not exactly murderers row, there. SD lost to CAR, DEN (partly screwed by Ed Hochuli), and the same MIA "Wildcats" that beat NE. SD is 2-3, needs this game badly and is at home. I think their motivation is going to be very high and I think they win this game. Very sad for me to say this as a Pats fan (especially because I'll be at the game - woot!).

Madcapping: ne 12 - SD 20


NYG (-9) @ CLE: Man the Giants look good. Great line play, great deep passing, great defense, not a lot of mistakes. So of course this will be the upset of the week. I'm just not ballsy enough to call it.

nyg 30 - CLE 10

Week 06 - War of Attrition

These are the kind of weeks that continue to make me nervous. The box wants me to bet only two game, and they are both those kind of games that make me poo myself. Uh, there I go again...

Here are the box's best bets for the week:

Rank Pick Vs Spd Bet %
1 BAL @ IND +4.5 52%
2 CAR @ TB +1 48%
3 GB @ SEA +2
4 MIA @ HOU +3
5 ARI v. DAL +5
6 PHI @ SF -5
7 NYG @ CLE -9
8 OAK @ NO +7.5
9 ATL v. CHI +3
10 NE @ SD +5.5
11 WAS v. STL -13.5
12 MIN v. DET -13
13 DEN v. JAC -3.5
14 NYJ v. CIN -6

and on the moneyline:

Rank Pick Vs ML Bet %
1 WAS v. STL -700 34%
2 NYG @ CLE -340 27%
3 BAL @ IND +170 21%
4 MIA @ HOU +140 18%
5 GB @ SEA +110
6 CHI @ ATL -150
7 PHI @ SF -230
8 DEN v. JAC -175
9 NYJ v. CIN -250
10 MIN v. DET -650
11 SD v. NE -250
12 DAL @ ARI -220
13 NO v. OAK -320

Spread Comments:
Indy being favored after that shockingly lucky win is questionable. Especially given the fact that BAL should have taken TEN to the mat last week. Still, I hate betting against Peyton. He's so... shifty. It's like betting against Indiana Jones - chances are, he'll punch your face, take your gun, and ride a passing mine car to safety. Eloquent, eh?

I'm not liking a bet against TB. I think it's a loser. I will be handing over some serious cash on what I think is a truly untested CAR team. The upside? At least I'm not taking the 'Skins giving 13.5! Silly box.

Moneyline Comments:
Ugh. I can't believe the suggestion is for me to take WAS at MINUS 700. Worst. Suggestion. Ever. The payout on a $10 bet at -700 is $1.40. Now there's a cost benefit that sucks my nuds. I do love the MIA over HOU pick, though - MIA is a stronger team than they get credit for, with solid O and D lines. HOU? Not bad, but certainly not much better than MIA.

Power ranks to come tomorrow.