| Power Ranks | ▲▼ | %FromTop | W/L/T | ATS | |
| 1 | TEN | 0% | 13 - 2 - 0 | 11 - 2 - 1 | |
| 2 | NYG | ▲1 | 5% | 12 - 3 - 0 | 11 - 4 - 0 |
| 3 | PHI | ▼1 | 8% | 8 - 5 - 1 | 9 - 6 - 0 |
| 4 | PIT | 10% | 11 - 3 - 0 | 8 - 6 - 0 | |
| 5 | BAL | 12% | 10 - 6 - 0 | 11 - 5 - 0 | |
| 6 | IND | ▲3 | 17% | 10 - 4 - 0 | 6 - 8 - 0 |
| 7 | CAR | ▼1 | 18% | 11 - 4 - 0 | 8 - 5 - 1 |
| 8 | SD | ▲3 | 19% | 8 - 7 - 0 | 6 - 7 - 1 |
| 9 | NE | ▲5 | 19% | 10 - 5 - 0 | 8 - 5 - 1 |
| 10 | TB | 23% | 9 - 5 - 0 | 6 - 8 - 0 | |
| 11 | MIN | ▼4 | 23% | 7 - 6 - 0 | 5 - 8 - 0 |
| 12 | CHI | ▼4 | 23% | 9 - 5 - 0 | 6 - 6 - 1 |
| 13 | NO | ▲5 | 23% | 8 - 7 - 0 | 10 - 5 - 0 |
| 14 | MIA | ▲5 | 24% | 9 - 5 - 0 | 7 - 7 - 0 |
| 15 | DAL | ▲2 | 24% | 8 - 5 - 0 | 6 - 7 - 0 |
| 16 | ATL | 24% | 9 - 5 - 0 | 8 - 4 - 1 | |
| 17 | CLE | ▼5 | 25% | 4 - 11 - 0 | 7 - 8 - 0 |
| 18 | ARI | ▼5 | 27% | 8 - 6 - 0 | 8 - 6 - 0 |
| 19 | GB | ▲1 | 28% | 3 - 10 - 0 | 6 - 7 - 0 |
| 20 | WAS | ▲1 | 29% | 8 - 7 - 0 | 6 - 9 - 0 |
| 21 | NYJ | ▼6 | 30% | 9 - 6 - 0 | 7 - 8 - 0 |
| 22 | HOU | 33% | 8 - 8 - 0 | 7 - 7 - 1 | |
| 23 | DEN | ▲1 | 35% | 7 - 8 - 0 | 4 - 9 - 1 |
| 24 | SF | ▼1 | 35% | 6 - 9 - 0 | 7 - 8 - 0 |
| 25 | JAC | 36% | 5 - 10 - 0 | 4 - 11 - 0 | |
| 26 | OAK | ▲3 | 36% | 4 - 11 - 0 | 6 - 9 - 0 |
| 27 | SEA | ▼1 | 37% | 4 - 10 - 0 | 8 - 6 - 0 |
| 28 | BUF | ▼1 | 37% | 7 - 8 - 0 | 7 - 8 - 0 |
| 29 | CIN | ▼1 | 38% | 3 - 12 - 0 | 6 - 9 - 0 |
| 30 | STL | 38% | 1 - 11 - 0 | 2 - 10 - 0 | |
| 31 | KC | 41% | 2 - 13 - 0 | 8 - 7 - 0 | |
| 32 | DET | 45% | 0 - 14 - 0 | 5 - 9 - 0 | |
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Week 17: Final Rankings Redux
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Week 09 - Back From The Grave!!!
So, I've been a combination of a.) very busy, and b.) totally demoralized. Right up until Week 8's results.
After a big goose egg in Week 6, followed by a virtual goose egg in Week 7, Week 8 was a week of love. 100% victory. Still way down on the year, but there's a nice upside.
I had some serious tweaking to do on the moneyline side of the box, it just wasn't working as I wanted. However, it seems to have paid off. Here are the week 6 - 8 bets and results:
Week 0666:
Not so good. Here's Week 7, the follow up to not so good:
Ridiculous. I watched my bank go from @ $200 to @ $65 in 2 weeks. But, there's a small upside in Week 8:
Tough few weeks, to say the least. Apparently, the box is highly correlated to the S&P 500 (if you can figure that one out, I'd love to know). Here's where we stand today:
But this week, we're back in scary territory. Lots of money, very few bets. Sigh. But the bets are placed, and here they are:
and...
The moneylines now focus on winners more than payouts, which was part of the problem. I had it focusing on payouts equally, which meant some dicey games. It was a big hit or miss method, instead of this way which is low risk, low return hedge to spread betting. Low risk makes more sense as a hedge.
I have to get back to work, but it's good to be back Capper.
After a big goose egg in Week 6, followed by a virtual goose egg in Week 7, Week 8 was a week of love. 100% victory. Still way down on the year, but there's a nice upside.
I had some serious tweaking to do on the moneyline side of the box, it just wasn't working as I wanted. However, it seems to have paid off. Here are the week 6 - 8 bets and results:
Week 0666:
| Rank | Pick | Vs | Spd | Bet % | Bet Amt | W/L | Payout |
| 1 | BAL | @ IND | +4 | 52% | $35.10 | L | $0.00 |
| 2 | CAR | @ TB | +1 | 48% | $32.78 | L | $0.00 |
| Rank | Pick | Vs | ML | Bet % | Bet Amt | W/L | Payout |
| 1 | WAS | v. STL | -650 | 34% | $9.37 | L | $0.00 |
| 2 | NYG | @ CLE | -340 | 26% | $7.20 | L | $0.00 |
| 3 | BAL | @ IND | +170 | 21% | $5.72 | L | $0.00 |
| 4 | MIA | @ HOU | +130 | 18% | $5.00 | L | $0.00 |
Not so good. Here's Week 7, the follow up to not so good:
| Rank | Pick | Vs | Spd | Bet % | Bet Amt | W/L | Payout |
| 1 | SD | @ BUF | 0 | 34% | $11.19 | L | $0.00 |
| 2 | NO | @ CAR | +3 | 33% | $11.10 | L | $0.00 |
| 3 | DEN | @ NE | +3 | 33% | $11.08 | L | $0.00 |
| Rank | Pick | Vs | ML | Bet % | Bet Amt | W/L | Payout |
| 1 | TEN | @ KC | -350 | 42% | $7.53 | W | $9.68 |
| 2 | DEN | @ NE | +140 | 30% | $5.42 | L | $0.00 |
| 3 | NO | @ CAR | +130 | 28% | $5.00 | L | $0.00 |
Ridiculous. I watched my bank go from @ $200 to @ $65 in 2 weeks. But, there's a small upside in Week 8:
| Rank | Pick | Vs | Spd | Bet % | Bet Amt | W/L | Payout |
| 1 | NO | v. SD | +3 | 51% | $10.84 | W | $20.70 |
| 2 | NYG | @ PIT | +2.5 | 49% | $10.58 | W | $20.66 |
| Rank | Pick | Vs | ML | Bet % | Bet Amt | W/L | Payout |
| 1 | NYG | @ PIT | +120 | 50% | $5.01 | W | $11.01 |
| 2 | TEN | v. IND | -200 | 50% | $5.00 | W | $7.50 |
Tough few weeks, to say the least. Apparently, the box is highly correlated to the S&P 500 (if you can figure that one out, I'd love to know). Here's where we stand today:
| Start Value | |
| $120.00 | |
| $s Add | $s Sub |
| $100.00 | $0.00 |
| Total Bank | |
| $220.00 | |
| Bets Placed | |
| $692.66 | |
| Bet Income | |
| -$122.90 | |
| Ending Bank | |
| $97.10 | |
| Total Return | |
| -55.87% | |
But this week, we're back in scary territory. Lots of money, very few bets. Sigh. But the bets are placed, and here they are:
| Rank | Pick | Vs | Spd | Bet % | Bet Amt |
| 1 | BAL | @ CLE | +1.5 | 100% | $22.46 |
| 2 | MIA | @ DEN | +3 | ||
| 3 | ARI | @ STL | -3 | ||
| 4 | HOU | @ MIN | +4.5 | ||
| 5 | ATL | @ OAK | -3 | ||
| 6 | TB | @ KC | -9 | ||
| 7 | PHI | v. SEA | -7 | ||
| 8 | PIT | @ WAS | +1.5 | ||
| 9 | NYJ | @ BUF | +5.5 | ||
| 10 | GB | @ TEN | +5.5 | ||
| 11 | NE | @ IND | +5.5 | ||
| 12 | DET | @ CHI | +13 | ||
| 13 | NYG | v. DAL | -9 | ||
| 14 | JAC | @ CIN | -8 |
and...
| Rank | Pick | Vs | ML | Bet % | Bet Amt |
| 1 | TB | @ KC | -420 | 30% | $8.62 |
| 2 | PHI | v. SEA | -300 | 27% | $7.92 |
| 3 | CHI | v. DET | -650 | 25% | $7.32 |
| 4 | MIA | @ DEN | +160 | 17% | $5.00 |
| 5 | ARI | @ STL | -150 | ||
| 6 | NYG | v. DAL | -400 | ||
| 7 | ATL | @ OAK | -145 | ||
| 8 | BUF | v. NYJ | -230 | ||
| 9 | TEN | v. GB | -240 | ||
| 10 | IND | v. NE | -250 | ||
| 11 | MIN | v. HOU | -210 | ||
| 12 | JAC | @ CIN | -360 |
The moneylines now focus on winners more than payouts, which was part of the problem. I had it focusing on payouts equally, which meant some dicey games. It was a big hit or miss method, instead of this way which is low risk, low return hedge to spread betting. Low risk makes more sense as a hedge.
I have to get back to work, but it's good to be back Capper.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Jumbo Package (no not that package)!
Yes that package!
...at least compared to Matty who apparently is still scared in a corner somewhere with his box. I've been picking solo for two weeks now, Matty!
OK so I only like 5 games this week, and I'm putting all my eggs in two baskets:
1. Straight Bet - $20
- buf (-1.5) over MIA: MIA screwed me last week by losing to BAL, and BUF shocked me with a dominant performance over SD. I'm riding this wave big time for most of my week's gambling cash.
2. Parlay (3-team) - $5
[tb (+1.5) over DAL -- atl (+9) over PHI -- nyg (+3) over PIT]
- Dallas is in disarray, Romo is still out and TB is playing extremely well. I think we have an upset here, and then Jerry Jones will have to trade for another whacky WR, maybe Javon Walker?
- The ATL pick is sorta risky, but I don't need them to win, just play solid ball like they have been playing and stay within 9 points. This could be one of the upsets of the week I talked about earlier, though. Keep an eye on this game.
- I just love the Giants. I think they are the best team in football, and here they are as the underdogs. I like PIT, too, but I've watched Ben Rothlesomethingorother get smashed quite a bit, and I think the Giants D may knock him out of this game.
I have a good feeling about this week. Rock on.
...at least compared to Matty who apparently is still scared in a corner somewhere with his box. I've been picking solo for two weeks now, Matty!
OK so I only like 5 games this week, and I'm putting all my eggs in two baskets:
1. Straight Bet - $20
- buf (-1.5) over MIA: MIA screwed me last week by losing to BAL, and BUF shocked me with a dominant performance over SD. I'm riding this wave big time for most of my week's gambling cash.
2. Parlay (3-team) - $5
[tb (+1.5) over DAL -- atl (+9) over PHI -- nyg (+3) over PIT]
- Dallas is in disarray, Romo is still out and TB is playing extremely well. I think we have an upset here, and then Jerry Jones will have to trade for another whacky WR, maybe Javon Walker?
- The ATL pick is sorta risky, but I don't need them to win, just play solid ball like they have been playing and stay within 9 points. This could be one of the upsets of the week I talked about earlier, though. Keep an eye on this game.
- I just love the Giants. I think they are the best team in football, and here they are as the underdogs. I like PIT, too, but I've watched Ben Rothlesomethingorother get smashed quite a bit, and I think the Giants D may knock him out of this game.
I have a good feeling about this week. Rock on.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Small Change - Week 7 Roundup
Sorry I didn't get my picks posted before the weekend, but I'll go through them below. Just a quick thought, though... Is it time to start picking rediculous upsets on the Moneyline? If you picked the Rams to upset Dallas this week, the payout would have been something like 8:1. Every week there is a huge upset. Miami did it to NE and SD, STL did it to WAS and DAL. If you correctly picked a big upset half the time, you'd be getting 4:1 payouts on average.
1. 3-Team Parlay: [Mia -3, NYG -9.5, NO +3] - LOST $5
- I bought into Mia after they beat SD last week. Dammit. BAL stopped the Wildcat, which wasn't totally shocking but what did surprise is how well they played offensively. Flacco had his best game so far and *poof* went my parlay bet.
- The Giants covered vs. SF, which I thought was predictable. West Coast teams travelling to the East are getting killed this year. Add that to the fact the Giants have looked like the strongest team in the NFL and you get a solid bet.
- NO totally blew this game. My abusive boyfriend (CAR) strikes again. I'd be more pissed, but MIA lost too, so really this was a bad bet all around.
2. 4-team Teaser: [NYJ+3, TN -4.5, HOU -3, NYG -4.5] - WON $9
- The Jets pushed, by losing to OAK in overtime by 3. This sucked, my friends. How the hell did that happen? This cost me payout dollas. Mangenious my ass.
- TN just rolled KC. Much like the NYG game, you just knew this was gonna happen.
3. NYJ -3: LOST $5
4. TN -8.5: WON $$4.76
5. NO +130: LOST $5
Overall a slightly down week, lost less than $2. That Jets game was the turning point for me. I would have had $10 flip my way on the single-game bet, and an additional $6 payout on my teaser. I couldn't resist going back to the Multi-game bets this week, and it cost me again. Had I stuck to my top picks I probably would have gone 2 for 2 with TN and NYG... but possibly may have been teased enough by an underdog Saints team and lost anyways.
Week 8 Analysis tomorrow!
1. 3-Team Parlay: [Mia -3, NYG -9.5, NO +3] - LOST $5
- I bought into Mia after they beat SD last week. Dammit. BAL stopped the Wildcat, which wasn't totally shocking but what did surprise is how well they played offensively. Flacco had his best game so far and *poof* went my parlay bet.
- The Giants covered vs. SF, which I thought was predictable. West Coast teams travelling to the East are getting killed this year. Add that to the fact the Giants have looked like the strongest team in the NFL and you get a solid bet.
- NO totally blew this game. My abusive boyfriend (CAR) strikes again. I'd be more pissed, but MIA lost too, so really this was a bad bet all around.
2. 4-team Teaser: [NYJ+3, TN -4.5, HOU -3, NYG -4.5] - WON $9
- The Jets pushed, by losing to OAK in overtime by 3. This sucked, my friends. How the hell did that happen? This cost me payout dollas. Mangenious my ass.
- TN just rolled KC. Much like the NYG game, you just knew this was gonna happen.
3. NYJ -3: LOST $5
4. TN -8.5: WON $$4.76
5. NO +130: LOST $5
Overall a slightly down week, lost less than $2. That Jets game was the turning point for me. I would have had $10 flip my way on the single-game bet, and an additional $6 payout on my teaser. I couldn't resist going back to the Multi-game bets this week, and it cost me again. Had I stuck to my top picks I probably would have gone 2 for 2 with TN and NYG... but possibly may have been teased enough by an underdog Saints team and lost anyways.
Week 8 Analysis tomorrow!
Thursday, October 16, 2008
I'm the Mongoose to your Cobra: Madcapping Week 7!
I must admit, my ego is severely bruised right now. I'm way down on the year, and need to get on a winning streak. Further complicating things were the Week 6 results. So many upsets... Anyway, here's how I see Week 7 shaking out....
tn (-9) @ KC: TN's coming off their bye week, they are 5-0 with no major injuries. KC is suspending Larry Johnson for the week. Is it possible KC is throwing the season? Screw Arrowhead, TN pounds them.
Madcapping: TN 24 - KC 6
Confidence: 80%
sd (PICK) @ BUF: After SD's drubbing ov NE (sooooo glad i resisted the urge to pick the upset) last week, this now looks like the game of the week. BUF is coming off their bye, and has the early game at home vs. a West Coat team. All signs point to Buffalo, but I was at the SD game last week, my friends. SD showed off its deep passing game and I'm not so sure BUF has anyone in their secondary to stop it.
Madcapping: SD 27 - BUF 21
Confidence: 50%
pit (-9.5) @ CIN: I still am not over how well B Roth played two SundayNights ago. Phenomenal effort to beat that tough JAX team. CIN played Dallas tough, but I keep hearing Carson is hurt, and I even heard his WRs are asking him to sit out. I don't know if you've watched Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it ain't pretty, and neither will this game.
Madcapping: PIT 21 - CIN 9
Confidence: 70%
bal (+3) @ MIA: Dolphins were dogs last week against Houston... and lost. Now they are favorites against Baltimore? Maybe if I keep losing my bookie will just pay me anyway? Weird thing is... I totally agree. I like MIA to win at home. J Porter is having a ferocious year, nobody's solved 'the wildcat' yet, and I like Pennington a lot more than Flacco.
Madcapping: BAL 17 - MIA 21
Confidence: 65%
min (+3) @ CHI: CHI should have lost that game before they should have won it, but they lost anyway. Make sense? Watch the highlights on NFL.com, it was an insane game. So what about MIN... You got me.... Berrian Sucks, Frerrotte is ok, Peterson is good, but won't CHI just stack the box?
Madcapping: MIN 13 - CHI 16
Confidence: 50%
no (+3) @ CAR: As I explained last week, CAR is my abusive boyfriend. I played it smart last week and stayed away from them (They promptly got their asses handed to them by Gaycia, I mean Geighcia). So basically that means they get rocked this week by NO, who seem unstoppable on offense, right? This is a frickin tease game, I want to put it on the line for the Saints, but CAR is equally capable of showing up and winning, so what do i know...
Madcapping: NO 33 - CAR 28
Confidence: 50%
sf (-10.5) @ NYG: The Giants fell asleep at the wheel last week. Do not forget this team is bad-ass. They have a West Coast team coming to visit, all signs point to an annihilation. The spreads a little hefty, but still could be worth it.
Madcapping: SF 10 - NYG 30
Confidence: 75%
det (+9) @ HOU: DET is so bad they are 9 point dogs to 1 Win Houston! Aye aye. I didn't see it but i heard the new QB stepped out of bounds for a safety at one point last week. Houston gets its second win this week, but can they do more than 9? uh oh... smells like a teaser.
Madcapping: DET 9 - HOU 20
Confidence: 75%
NYJ (-3) @ OAK: The J-E-T-S have been playing well enough to beat weak teams, and OAK is definitely that. With only a field goal spread, i really like the Favres this week.
Madcapping: NYJ 24 - OAK 17
Confidence: 80%
cle (+7.5) @ WAS: Hey, wouldn't it be cool if CLE was suddenly back and took down the Skins one week after shocking the Giants? Only problem is that the Giants had a sloppy away game after cruising to victories game after game. WAS is at home, and they are coming off a loss of their own (to STL, pew). I'd like to see CLE win, but won't bet on it.
Madcapping: CLE 17 - WAS 19
Confidence: 50%
ind (-1) @ GB: I was wrong, this is the game of the week. Both good teams with too many losses already. GB has not been performing well lately though, so I'm giving this one to Indy.
Madcapping: IND 24 - GB 21
Confidence: 60%
sea (+10.5) @ TB: Suddenly Tampa's a rockstar team, eh? 10.5 is a big spread, but SEA's done all of nothing to warrant betting with them.
Madcapping: SEA 15 - TB 20
Confidence: 60%
den (+3) @ NE: So apparently all NE had to do to be favored was get creamed but a 2-3 team. Sometimes I don't get this whole thing. Here's my concern... SD went long ball over and over... and yes, over again last week. DEN has one of the top passing attacks in the league. Eddie Royal is out and I can't name the Broncos starting RB....
Madcapping: DEN 30 - NE 28
Confidence: 60%
Final picks tomorrow!
tn (-9) @ KC: TN's coming off their bye week, they are 5-0 with no major injuries. KC is suspending Larry Johnson for the week. Is it possible KC is throwing the season? Screw Arrowhead, TN pounds them.
Madcapping: TN 24 - KC 6
Confidence: 80%
sd (PICK) @ BUF: After SD's drubbing ov NE (sooooo glad i resisted the urge to pick the upset) last week, this now looks like the game of the week. BUF is coming off their bye, and has the early game at home vs. a West Coat team. All signs point to Buffalo, but I was at the SD game last week, my friends. SD showed off its deep passing game and I'm not so sure BUF has anyone in their secondary to stop it.
Madcapping: SD 27 - BUF 21
Confidence: 50%
pit (-9.5) @ CIN: I still am not over how well B Roth played two SundayNights ago. Phenomenal effort to beat that tough JAX team. CIN played Dallas tough, but I keep hearing Carson is hurt, and I even heard his WRs are asking him to sit out. I don't know if you've watched Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it ain't pretty, and neither will this game.
Madcapping: PIT 21 - CIN 9
Confidence: 70%
bal (+3) @ MIA: Dolphins were dogs last week against Houston... and lost. Now they are favorites against Baltimore? Maybe if I keep losing my bookie will just pay me anyway? Weird thing is... I totally agree. I like MIA to win at home. J Porter is having a ferocious year, nobody's solved 'the wildcat' yet, and I like Pennington a lot more than Flacco.
Madcapping: BAL 17 - MIA 21
Confidence: 65%
min (+3) @ CHI: CHI should have lost that game before they should have won it, but they lost anyway. Make sense? Watch the highlights on NFL.com, it was an insane game. So what about MIN... You got me.... Berrian Sucks, Frerrotte is ok, Peterson is good, but won't CHI just stack the box?
Madcapping: MIN 13 - CHI 16
Confidence: 50%
no (+3) @ CAR: As I explained last week, CAR is my abusive boyfriend. I played it smart last week and stayed away from them (They promptly got their asses handed to them by Gaycia, I mean Geighcia). So basically that means they get rocked this week by NO, who seem unstoppable on offense, right? This is a frickin tease game, I want to put it on the line for the Saints, but CAR is equally capable of showing up and winning, so what do i know...
Madcapping: NO 33 - CAR 28
Confidence: 50%
sf (-10.5) @ NYG: The Giants fell asleep at the wheel last week. Do not forget this team is bad-ass. They have a West Coast team coming to visit, all signs point to an annihilation. The spreads a little hefty, but still could be worth it.
Madcapping: SF 10 - NYG 30
Confidence: 75%
det (+9) @ HOU: DET is so bad they are 9 point dogs to 1 Win Houston! Aye aye. I didn't see it but i heard the new QB stepped out of bounds for a safety at one point last week. Houston gets its second win this week, but can they do more than 9? uh oh... smells like a teaser.
Madcapping: DET 9 - HOU 20
Confidence: 75%
NYJ (-3) @ OAK: The J-E-T-S have been playing well enough to beat weak teams, and OAK is definitely that. With only a field goal spread, i really like the Favres this week.
Madcapping: NYJ 24 - OAK 17
Confidence: 80%
cle (+7.5) @ WAS: Hey, wouldn't it be cool if CLE was suddenly back and took down the Skins one week after shocking the Giants? Only problem is that the Giants had a sloppy away game after cruising to victories game after game. WAS is at home, and they are coming off a loss of their own (to STL, pew). I'd like to see CLE win, but won't bet on it.
Madcapping: CLE 17 - WAS 19
Confidence: 50%
ind (-1) @ GB: I was wrong, this is the game of the week. Both good teams with too many losses already. GB has not been performing well lately though, so I'm giving this one to Indy.
Madcapping: IND 24 - GB 21
Confidence: 60%
sea (+10.5) @ TB: Suddenly Tampa's a rockstar team, eh? 10.5 is a big spread, but SEA's done all of nothing to warrant betting with them.
Madcapping: SEA 15 - TB 20
Confidence: 60%
den (+3) @ NE: So apparently all NE had to do to be favored was get creamed but a 2-3 team. Sometimes I don't get this whole thing. Here's my concern... SD went long ball over and over... and yes, over again last week. DEN has one of the top passing attacks in the league. Eddie Royal is out and I can't name the Broncos starting RB....
Madcapping: DEN 30 - NE 28
Confidence: 60%
Final picks tomorrow!
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Tie goes to the Loser
Won my PHI (-5) over SF bet, lost my DEN (-175) bet. Unfortunately I weighted my gambling on the 'safer' pick, DEN, so I lose again!
Even with a small loss this week, I feel pretty validated avoiding the teasers and parlays. I may have forced that DEN pick on myself this week, though. Probably better to just stick to one game, if that's all I like. Anyways, last week had difficult games to call, and the upsets bore that out:
STL over WAS - crazy
CLE over NYG - bonkers (although I called it)
ARI over DAL - looney
GB over SEA - this game was a pisser. Why the hell was SEA favored anyways?
ATL over CHI - that's two in a row, Falcons fans
JAX over DEN - what the hell happened?
TB over CAR - so glad i stayed away from CAR
Even with a small loss this week, I feel pretty validated avoiding the teasers and parlays. I may have forced that DEN pick on myself this week, though. Probably better to just stick to one game, if that's all I like. Anyways, last week had difficult games to call, and the upsets bore that out:
STL over WAS - crazy
CLE over NYG - bonkers (although I called it)
ARI over DAL - looney
GB over SEA - this game was a pisser. Why the hell was SEA favored anyways?
ATL over CHI - that's two in a row, Falcons fans
JAX over DEN - what the hell happened?
TB over CAR - so glad i stayed away from CAR
Monday, October 13, 2008
Week 0666 - What. The. Eff.
I wiped.
Correction - the box wiped. Zer0. Percent. Return.
I have the NYG on the moneyline tonight with a possible payout of around $1.75.
It's never happened before, but it stands to reason that during the worst financial crisis in 80 years, the box would wipe.
Yikes. In the words of the esteemed Bill Simmons, I will now throw a Moltov cocktail at myself.
Correction - the box wiped. Zer0. Percent. Return.
I have the NYG on the moneyline tonight with a possible payout of around $1.75.
It's never happened before, but it stands to reason that during the worst financial crisis in 80 years, the box would wipe.
Yikes. In the words of the esteemed Bill Simmons, I will now throw a Moltov cocktail at myself.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Cap's Away! Week 6 picks...
OK, so I've settled on my winners:
phi (-4.5) over SF - I called for a blowout in my Madcapping, and I'm backing up my mouth with my hard-earned ducats. The line dropped a half-point in my favor today, so i'm even more psyched.
DEN (-175) over JAX - I just like Denver at home. JAX hasn't looked good this year except for a game or two, they got beat up Sunday Night by PIT...
I wanted badly to put some cash on NE to upset, but just couldn't bring myself to do it. In consolation, though, I will be at the game in SD. Look for the White Patriots Jersey and Gold Sunglasses on TV. I'll probably be drinking....
phi (-4.5) over SF - I called for a blowout in my Madcapping, and I'm backing up my mouth with my hard-earned ducats. The line dropped a half-point in my favor today, so i'm even more psyched.
DEN (-175) over JAX - I just like Denver at home. JAX hasn't looked good this year except for a game or two, they got beat up Sunday Night by PIT...
I wanted badly to put some cash on NE to upset, but just couldn't bring myself to do it. In consolation, though, I will be at the game in SD. Look for the White Patriots Jersey and Gold Sunglasses on TV. I'll probably be drinking....
"The Sports Guy" Hilarious Moment of the Week
This is from Sports Guy's Mailbag Today:
Q: I was telling my girlfriend about the Manny-Sox dynamic and the potential for a Dodgers/Red Sox World Series and she mentioned that in "A League of Their Own" the team traded the cranky younger sister because of the stressful clubhouse dynamic, and that the rival team ultimately prevailed because of this. I thought, "My God, I must tell Simmons." Please tell me this isn't an applicable analogy, or some way we can stop it.
-- Joe the Guy, Boston
SG: We can't stop it. It's too late. You went there and we can't go back. You have to live with it for the rest of your life. The thing is, it's the greatest possible comparison. I will now throw a Molotov cocktail at myself.
... another great 'hug some poisonous snakes' line
Week 06 - Box's Best Bets
The bets are in, the juice is low, and the final bets somewhat suck my nudsack.
Here they are:
Pick Vs Spd Bet % Bet Amt
BAL @ IND +4 52% $35.10
CAR @ TB +1 48% $32.78
and
Pick Vs ML Bet % Bet Amt
WAS v. STL -650 34% $9.37
NYG @ CLE -340 26% $7.20
BAL @ IND +170 21% $5.72
MIA @ HOU +130 18% $5.00
for totals of
Start Value
$205.46
$s Add $s Sub
$0.00 $0.00
Total Bank
$205.46
Bets Placed
$95.18
So a nice chunk of a week, but this new iteration of the box makes me nervous, since it has the ability to cull out only one or two teams to bet. It means I'm placing fairly big bets on a fairly small sample size. Despite it being profitable historically, it still makes me nervous. I mean, BAL could just as easily implode as play well. And CAR? Well, who exactly is CAR? They beat a weaker-than-they-should-be SD team in week 1, a volatile CHI team, lost to a schizophrenic MIN team, and crushed two of the lowest teams in the league.
Also, it's rare when the box suggests some seriously terrible payouts on the moneyline. Winning isn't quite as sweet when the payout is like $2 on a $9 bet. Lame.
But, the box hasn't steered me tooooooooooo wrong yet. Hi ho silver, away!
Here they are:
Pick Vs Spd Bet % Bet Amt
BAL @ IND +4 52% $35.10
CAR @ TB +1 48% $32.78
and
Pick Vs ML Bet % Bet Amt
WAS v. STL -650 34% $9.37
NYG @ CLE -340 26% $7.20
BAL @ IND +170 21% $5.72
MIA @ HOU +130 18% $5.00
for totals of
Start Value
$205.46
$s Add $s Sub
$0.00 $0.00
Total Bank
$205.46
Bets Placed
$95.18
So a nice chunk of a week, but this new iteration of the box makes me nervous, since it has the ability to cull out only one or two teams to bet. It means I'm placing fairly big bets on a fairly small sample size. Despite it being profitable historically, it still makes me nervous. I mean, BAL could just as easily implode as play well. And CAR? Well, who exactly is CAR? They beat a weaker-than-they-should-be SD team in week 1, a volatile CHI team, lost to a schizophrenic MIN team, and crushed two of the lowest teams in the league.
Also, it's rare when the box suggests some seriously terrible payouts on the moneyline. Winning isn't quite as sweet when the payout is like $2 on a $9 bet. Lame.
But, the box hasn't steered me tooooooooooo wrong yet. Hi ho silver, away!
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Week 06 - Bettor's Power Ranks
Now remember my friends, the bye teams are not included. Know who probably forgot? That one.
So here are the bye week team-less power ranks:
First thing that pops on the overall ranks is the fact that Chicago is ranked 3rd. This is easily explained when you realize they're playing an Atlanta team that requires The Burner to break the century, and against the Bears resurgent D, I don't expect it to happen.
Also fun fact of the day: Sunday night's game is more important to NE in terms of playoff implications, but NE is one of the most volatile teams in terms of performance this year. What's that mean? Stay away from that shite.
So here are the bye week team-less power ranks:
| Power Ranks | ▲▼ | Rank | GV | Vol | ||
| 1 | NYG | ▲1 | 1 | BAL | NO | |
| 2 | BAL | ▼1 | 2 | JAC | CHI | |
| 3 | CHI | ▲4 | 3 | MIN | DET | |
| 4 | DAL | ▲1 | 4 | NO | MIN | |
| 5 | NO | ▲3 | 5 | PHI | DAL | |
| 6 | WAS | ▲3 | 6 | SF | SD | |
| 7 | CAR | ▲3 | 7 | NE | CAR | |
| 8 | PHI | ▼2 | 8 | NYG | WAS | |
| 9 | TB | ▼6 | 9 | ATL | IND | |
| 10 | MIN | ▲1 | 10 | GB | TB | |
| 11 | ARI | ▲1 | 11 | IND | GB | |
| 12 | SD | ▼8 | 12 | CAR | ARI | |
| 13 | GB | 13 | DAL | JAC | ||
| 14 | IND | 14 | WAS | NYG | ||
| 15 | DEN | ▼2 | 15 | ARI | HOU | |
| 16 | SF | 16 | CHI | NYJ | ||
| 17 | JAC | ▼2 | 17 | DEN | SF | |
| 18 | NYJ | 18 | SD | PHI | ||
| 19 | OAK | 19 | TB | BAL | ||
| 20 | NE | ▼3 | 20 | MIA | OAK | |
| 21 | MIA | ▲1 | 21 | NYJ | DEN | |
| 22 | ATL | 22 | OAK | CIN | ||
| 23 | HOU | ▼5 | 23 | HOU | NE | |
| 24 | CIN | ▼4 | 24 | CLE | MIA | |
| 25 | DET | ▼4 | 25 | DET | CLE | |
| 26 | CLE | 26 | SEA | SEA | ||
| 27 | SEA | ▼8 | 27 | STL | ATL | |
| 28 | STL | 28 | CIN | STL | ||
| * Excludes BYE week teams! | * Excludes BYE week teams! | |||||
First thing that pops on the overall ranks is the fact that Chicago is ranked 3rd. This is easily explained when you realize they're playing an Atlanta team that requires The Burner to break the century, and against the Bears resurgent D, I don't expect it to happen.
Also fun fact of the day: Sunday night's game is more important to NE in terms of playoff implications, but NE is one of the most volatile teams in terms of performance this year. What's that mean? Stay away from that shite.
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