Week 05 - The Results

Well, I figure I should get some posts done while McCain clamors on like so much Walter Matthau in Grumpy Old Men.

The results are in, and they are (just barely) victorious. A big shout out to my boy Big Ben for coming through and making me profitable. You did me a solid there, winner.

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	CHI	@ DET	-3.5	18%	$10.29	W	$20.10
2	BUF	@ ARI	+1.5	17%	$9.91	L	$0.00
3	BAL	v. TEN	+3	17%	$9.89	P	$9.89
4	TB	@ DEN	+3	17%	$9.84	P	$9.84
5	PIT	@ JAC	+4	16%	$9.23	W	$18.02
6	SF	v. NE	+3	16%	$9.05	L	$0.00

and..

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	PIT	@ JAC	+175	39%	$9.34	W	$25.69
2	CHI	@ DET	-190	33%	$7.96	W	$12.15
3	SF	v. NE	+160	28%	$6.76	L	$0.00

So the end tally is a nice mild $13 payout. I might just go bail out a sandwich with my winnings!

I'm running the numbers now for the week, so hopefully more to come (and more regularly?).

By the way, nice win Capper. Though if you're going to bet GB, better do it soon - HUGE money came in early, the line dropped from +3 to +2 overnight.

Another Losing.... Wait I won? Week 5 Roundup

So at moment of truth I picked TN to cover the 3 point spread and also to win outright (@ BAL) in the Moneyline. TN won the game by 3 points, so my spread pick pushed, but I collected on my Moneyline bet. Huzzah!

The NFL landscape is getting less and less predictable. The Dolphins upset the Chargers, the Falcons did the same to Green Bay AT LAMBEAU. Buffalo takes its first loss, and Cincy played Dallas close til the end. Crazy Crazy.

All this nonsense makes it incredibly difficult to pick parlays and teasers correctly. There are simply not enough 'sure things' each week. Typically I would favor the Teasers in environments like this, but they got me killed 3 weeks in a row. I think I have the bleedeing stopped, and now it's time to erase more of my losses from weeks 2-4. For now I'm sticking with 1 or 2 games that I have the most confidence in, and betting big on fewer games rather than spreading out small bets on numerous parlays and teasers. It's still early in the week, but here are my initial favorite games:

chi (-2.5) over ATL - Matt Ryan's got big test against the Bears nasty Defense.

dal (-5.5) over ARI - ARI beat undefeated Buffalo, but that was after T. Edwards was knocked out of the game. DAL is a bully team and should teake The Cards' lunch money.

gb (+3) over SEA - This looks like a stunning over-reaction to last week's loss to ATL. I'll need to check the injury reports and make sure A Rodgers is going to play.

ne (+6) over SD - SD needs this game more than NE, so that makes me nervous. But don't you have to take the points when the patriots get them?

Capper Changes Tactics - Week 5 Go-Time

After back-to-back huge losing weekend, I have decided I need to switch to a "pick of the week" format for a little while. There are two games I like best:

JAX (-4) over pit: JAX is a loaded team with a solid D and efficient offense. The problem they face is their banged up O-Line, which I believe they have fixed. The backups have had a few games to get adjusted, and they have returned to their fearsome running attack with Taylor and MJD. PIT on the other hand is without fast Willy Parker and Rothlisberger looks like David Carr back their getting sacked approximately 40 times per game. Throw in a tough Monday Night Game last week vs. brusing BAL and the fact that JAX is home, I think I've got a winner.

tn (-3) over BAL: BAL is better than I thought they'd be this year, but TN has just been awesome. I'll give a field goal here and say TN's D make Flacco's life miserable. BAL's D is stout of course, but I'm betting they can get just enough done to get the W.

The spreads here may make it risky, I'll decide whether or not to go Moneyline at the last minute probably.

Cap on!

Week 05 - Bettor's Power Ranks - My Pats Suck

Well, all but the Packers game are reporting now (the injury to Rodgers is screwing it all up). And that means the power ranks are in, and they're looking good in my opinion.

Power Ranks		▲▼
1	TEN	▲1
2	BAL	▼1
3	NYG
4	TB	▲4
5	SD	▲2
6	DAL	▼2
7	PHI	▼4
8	CHI	▲3
9	NO	▲5
10	WAS	▲3
11	CAR	▲4
12	MIN	▼3
13	ARI	▼3
14	BUF	▼9
15	DEN	▼9
16	IND
17	JAC
18	SF	▼6
19	PIT	▼3
20	NE
21	HOU	▼2
22	SEA
23	CIN	▼5
24	DET
25	MIA
26	KC	▼6

A lot to like there - TEN at the top makes total sense, especially given how consistent they've been with (I can't believe it) Kerry Collins. And it's clear the theme of the first quarter of the year is defense, with BAL, TB, and NYG all floating to the top.

The real question is - why NE, why??? It's an overreaction to the MIA game before the bye, but it's still ugly. And here's why:

Rank	GV	Vol
1	NE	MIN
2	NYG	DET
3	CAR	NO
4	DAL	TEN
5	PIT	CHI
6	SD	SD
7	TB	IND
8	WAS	CAR
9	ARI	DAL
10	BAL	TB
11	CHI	ARI
12	DEN	JAC
13	JAC	WAS
14	NO	DEN
15	PHI	HOU
16	SF	NYG
17	IND	BUF
18	BUF	BAL
19	TEN	PHI
20	HOU	SF
21	KC	CIN
22	MIN	PIT
23	DET	NE
24	MIA	SEA
25	SEA	KC
26	CIN	MIA

Note the 23rd ranked volatility. Sigh. Here are the preliminary bets:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd
1	CHI	@ DET	-3.5
2	BUF	@ ARI	+1
3	BAL	v. TEN	+3
4	TB	@ DEN	+3
5	PIT	@ JAC	+4
6	SF	v. NE	+3
7	IND	@ HOU	-3
8	MIN	@ NO	+3
9	MIA	v. SD	+6.5
10	WAS	@ PHI	+6
11	NYG	v. SEA	-7
12	CAR	v. KC	-9.5
13	CIN	@ DAL	+17

and...

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML
1	PIT	@ JAC	+175
2	CHI	@ DET	-190
3	SF	v. NE	+160
4	TB	@ DEN	+150
5	BAL	v. TEN	+125
6	IND	@ HOU	-170
7	CAR	v. KC	-450
8	NYG	v. SEA	-320
9	NO	v. MIN	-165
10	PHI	v. WAS	-260
11	SD	@ MIA	-260

Loving the PIT pick on both the ML and Spread. Scared to death of CHI, this one feels like a trap. In DET after a lucky win against PHI, how long can CHI's defense keep them in every game? Orton is bound to screw the pooch, I'm just hoping not this week.

More to come...