Week 7 - Box to Try a New Strategy; Win

Ha! I would say the all in strategy could be genius, except that if I
did that on my top picks in the last two weeks, I'd be all broke.

So I went back in the system, and rather than trying to rewrite the
magic, I decided the best thing to do was simplify my betting and
concentrate on which games won BETS rather than PICKS. It seemed like
an oxymoron to me, since if I pick right, I should win the bets, but
turns out I'm picking all the wrong games and all the wrong bets (bad
lays, bad picks, high volatility, and bad parlays).

I've also decided to bet $37.75 (arbitrary number) max or 75.5% of
anything less than $50. So even if my bankroll is $200, I'm only
betting $37.75 until I'm satisfied I can win consistently. Actually,
if
I'm at $200, I'll probably just break even. Sigh.

As for this week's picks, the system took ONE favorite this week. Just

one. So it's another dog day afternoon. Now it's a matter of taking
the cream of the picks. Here's the rotation (asterisks on bets I took):
(Manny up, 2 on, 2 out - sox are killing em 7-1 right now)

They Box Picks (spread):
TEN -1 Away **
BUF 3 Home
MIA 16.5 Home
ATL 9 Away
TB 2.5 Away **
SF 9 Away
ARI 9 Away **
KC 3 Away
NYJ 6 Away
MIN 9.5 Away
STL 8.5 Away
CHI 5 Away
DEN 3.5 Home
JAC 3 Home

Money Line:
TEN
BAL
NE
NO
TB
NYG **
WAS
KC
CIN
DAL
SEA
PHI
PIT
IND

My Parlays:
ARI +9, CHI +5, ATL +9
NYG, TB, NO
ARI +9, NYG, TB, NO

Now, granted there is some duplication in my parlays. But I did a
historical parlay study now, and the payouts have been good - 6
negative
weeks in a 30 week span (so about 80% profitable), and when I win, I
usually win big (a few 200+% weeks in there). But my next step is to
work into the system some sort of algorithm to bet the "underbet" games

- basically avoid marquee matchups and play low volume bets with nicer
payouts and lower volatility. But I have no idea how to do that yet.

My confidence equals zero right now, so we'll see how this turns out.