Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Week 5 - The Box Picks the Games, Nose


And you will like many of them, actually. I've started using my Win %
over my conviction, as it actually seems to be winning more (of course
it is, it's WIN percentage). But here are the picks (I have been
overhauling the "Betting" section of the box so that it's easy to use, I
keep adding pieces to it and it's impossible to read):

in order of win %
1 ATL +8 @ TEN
2 DET +3.5 @ WAS
3 NO +3 v. CAR
4 TB +10 v. IND
5 GB +3 v. CHI
6 ARI -3 @ STL
7 KC +2 v. JAC
8 SEA +6 @ PIT
9 BUF +10 v. DAL
10 CLE +16.5 @ NE
11 MIA +5.5 @ HOU
12 NYJ +3.5 @ NYG
13 DEN -1 v. SD
14 BAL -3 @ SF

We have a bunch of agreements, and a couple of toss up games I think. I
am liking the top 3 picks right off the bat: ATL is better than the 8
their getting, DET is flat out a better team than WAS (since DET's real
issue is the D, and WAS's real issue is the O, it's strength against
strength and DET is just better than WAS's D), and NO is coming off a
bye to a hurt CAR team AND they're at home. This week will be Drew
Brees' "statement week" I think, where he throws for 4 TDs and laughs at
the camera afterwards.

The TB pick is another good one, but it's tough to pick against IND any
time their at home. I just think Babyface Gruden can't perform under
pressure of a real opponent - TB will be great in their weak ass
division and the weak ass NFC, but against one of the top teams in the
NFL? It's no wonder TB is my LAST convicted pick, despite the number 4
being such a high win percentage.

We both like GB, especially at home, and we both like ARI. The box
likes KC, and I know exactly why: JAC is terribly inconsistent,
especially against weaker teams. This game is middle of the pack for
the box, both on win % and conviction, so I'm staying away from it.
SEA, I think, is a great pick. That said, it's low on my win % and
conviction rate (almost last), so I'm staying away when I bet. BUF i
think is a great bet this week, at home (should be colder this weekend,
too), against a great DAL team that I think has unexposed flaws right
now. CLE is an obvious pick, just because it's such a big spread - I'm
staying far far away from it, since betting against NE is like giving
away money.

Jets/Giants to me is a toss up game - depending on which Eli Manning
shows up, whether or not Tommy Jones can run for more than 10 feet.
Since it is essentially a home game for both of them, I like the Jets.
I think they're better coached and more capable - they just need to shut
down Plaxico. DEN, I think, is a lock. They are number 2 on my
convictions (number 1 going to ARI), and I love that the spread is so
low. Everyone's afraid that SD will "show up" some week, but the fact
is, Norv Turner is to winning what cryptonite is to Supermen (yes,
multiple men). 1st and goal on the 5 against KC, what do they do?
Pass, pass, pass, FG. Where was LT? On the SIDELINE FOR TWO OF THE
PLAYS, then he BLOCKED for the other one!!! You have the leagues TOP
SCORER from last year blocking??? Norv is a total mo, he deserves to
lose, and any team that fires a 14-2 coach should never have the right
to go to the playoffs again. I hope Shanahan chews em up.

BAL is an interesting pick as a favorite, especially with the cross
country travel, but I can't see SF scoring any points. WIth a last name
so close to "Dillhole", I can't see Trent Dilfer driving at all. If BAL
can stop Gore, which is their only weapon, this game shouldn't be much
of a game.

And that's the quick rundown. I'll get into more this week, I honestly
feel like I have 3 jobs right now. I heart football.


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