...as for the TB game, I totally agree with your analysis. JAX will pound the ball. TB has a good D, and they'll be able to stack the box against the one-dimensional offense. I also like that:
1. TB is at home.
2. The point spread on the teaser is TB +2.5, so even if they lose a close game, the bet still wins.
3. I just heard that MJD is hurt and probably won't play.
my other final choices were:
NO (+3.5) vs SF
GB (+9) vs DEN
DET (+11) vs CHI
I liked all those games, including the NO game you are banking on, but I am overly cautious this week since (in theory) i've used up my bankroll. My explanation for not picking the other 3 are that: NO has laid quite a few eggs this year, so that makes me nervous, DEN at home and coming off a big PIT win could suddenly start rolling, DET has multiple personality disorder against a CHI team that seems to have re-discovered itself. I think they're all good bets, but I went with my top 3 - all in, baby.
You've gotten interesting with the moneyline betting, including moneyline parlays. I tried them one week and got totally screwed, so I wrote them off... Have you had some luck with them? The BUF +125 seems like a great pick, I may have to load in an extra $20 to put on that game. Notice I completely shied away from that game on my teaser, going along with my completely paranoid 'trap game' theory.
Why oh why would you bet against New England? Didn't you read the article comparing the Pats to the Cobra Kai Yankees?
What are the payouts on your parlays? You've got a lot of heavily favored teams in there, so it would seem the payouts wouldn't be worth it...
There is indeed a ton of crossover on your parlays. Risky business if you ask me.