so Vegas and I agreed on quite a few of the games: I've listed their lines below, with my predictions tabbed to the right:
VEGAS .....................................THE MAD CAPPER...............DIFF.
was (-3.5)at NYJ............. was (-8)............. 4.5
gb (+1.5) at KC.............. gb (-4).............. 5.5
ari (+3.5) at TB............. ari (+2)............. 1.5
car (+4) at TN............... car (+4)............. 0
sf (+2) at ATL............... sf (+3).............. 1.0
jax (+3) at NO............... jax (+4)............. 1.0
den (+3) at DET.............. den (+2)............. 1.0
cin (-1)at BUF............... cin (-5)............. 4.0
sd (-7) at MIN............... sd (-10)............. 3.0
sea (+1) at CLE.............. sea (-5)............. 6.0
ne (-5.5) at IND............. ------- ............. ---
hou (+3) at OAK.............. hou (+2)............. 1.0
dal (-3) at PHI.............. dal (-7)............. 4.0
bal (+9) at PIT.............. bal (+9)............. 0
The games in red are those where there is more than a 3 point differential between me and the Vegas line. These are the picks I will concentrate on for betting the spread. In order of conviction:
1. was (-3.5) at NYJ: I keep thinking the Jets are going to come around and be the team they were last year. And it just isnt' happening. Maybe Kellen Clemens sparks something in the second half of the year, but it won't be in his first start, and it won't be against a team as good as WAS, especially after they had their tails handed to them last week vs NE. I like Washington to win by atleast a touchdown.
2. sd (-7) at MIN: People have noticed that SD is back on track, right? And that MIN is struggling terribly? And the Chris Chambers trade hasn't gotten nearly the press it should have. Two years ago this would have been considered a blockbuster just short of the Randy Moss trade this year. Chambers may have been an idiot in MIA but he is the #1 receiver SD never had. Watch out. He's gonna open up that offense for his teammates, and make a few plays himself. This is one of the larger spreads this week, but I am confident that SD will roll over MIN like they should. I like SD by atleast 2 scores.
3. dal (-3) at PHI: I have a rule against betting games that involve teams with multiple personality disorder. PHI is absolutely one of these teams, so I'm breaking my own rule here. DAL is coming off their bye week, Romo got his contract, and PHI just isn't what it used to be. I like Dallas by two scores here.
4. gb (+1.5) at KC: I can't for the life of me figure out why week after week GB is either the 'dog or not forced to lay more points. They have continuously beaten the spread or upset their opponent. Is KC better than DEN? Is Arrowhead harder to play in than Mile High? Last week GB wins in OT with a +3 spread, this week they are at +1.5. Bet GB, they rarely fail.
5. cin (-1) at BUF: This one is a little more dificult. BUF is absolutely a team on the rise, and have beaten a lot of spreads this year, also. Trent Edwards' consistency seemed to spark the turnaround, however, and he's out, JP Losman is back in. I don't dislike JP, but when he's played, they've lost. Cincy... well they are like the Jets, any week it seems they could just snap out of it and hang 50 points on someone. I think this game ends up being close, but BUF can't pull it out.
6. sea (+1) at CLE: Another toughy. Picking against a hot CLE team at home seems risky. And it is. SEA has multiple personality disorder, too. Anything could happen here. In fact I just talked myself out of this game. I'm leaving it alone.
No comments:
Post a Comment