Monday, October 1, 2007

Week 4 - Postgame Analysis

You know, I watched upset after upset go down, and got really frustrated, until i realized I actually did ok. The big loser was the moneyline betting. When the upsets hit, the moneylines just fell apart. Seeing as the payouts on winning the moneylines are so low, i am tempted to scrap the whole thing and stick with the spreads, especially considering that although over the 14 games this weekend I only got 5 right (possibly 6 with NE v CIN tonight), I don't bet all the games, only my top 9, and all 5 (or 6) were in my parlays. The parlay system I use did what it is supposed to, and pulled out one winner, which covered all the other losers, plus netted me a small profit. Pretty good for an off week. Unfortunately I got killed in the moneylines, so netted a 50% loss this week... terrible.

Week 4 comments:

PHI vs NYG - man this was a killer. I got your text about westbrook, but honestly i doubt it would have mattered. 12 sacks? Just plain awful. Taking the season as a whole it looks like the DET game was a fluke last week. I'm very anti Philly right now.

NYJ vs BUF - wtf? I know you had buffalo covering, but i don't get this one. This was my #2 pick this week, and it hit me really hard. Cost me 3 parlays. Lesson learned - my top 3 from now on will include picks that the box and I agree on, with a possibility of one replacement.

BAL vs CLE - again, wtf? again, i know you had cle covering, and yeah, i don't get it. Apparently I need to rethink these two teams the rest of the year. Suddenly CLE is 2-2, and has covered the spread 3 weeks straight. Meanwhile Baltimore is 2-2, and isn't covering spreads. Squeaking past NYJ, ARI, and losing to CLE and CIN is telling me to pick against these guys from now on.

OAK vs MIA - ok, we both picked correctly here, but the idea to hedge and pick MIA in the moneyline was not a good one. Hedging with parlays is a terrible idea, it seems, since you are likely to lose one of the parlays. It's hard enough to pick several teams to win in a group. Of course, if I had hit the middle I would be shouting how great an idea it was....

ARI vs PIT - Arizona is a spread buster. This week the upset PIT, last week they covered vs. BAL, Week 2 they upset SEA, and Week 1 they almost beat SF. I'm upgrading these guys, much like I did with TB this week.

TB vs. CAR - this one worked out great. You and I both liked this game, upgraded them from earlier in the year and now.... crap! Cadillac is out with a knee injury. What to do with them next week?

So I'm not sure if you bet the way you you sent out in your last email, but if you did, it looked like you got beat up trying to hedge those games. You correctly picked OAK, TB, and ARI to cover. Unfortunately they all upset and you would have lost your hedge bet on the moneyline, yielding a negative... Are you going to stick with the hedging?

Final thought... I am so pissed about the moneyline thing I am tempted to throw down $25 on the pats to cover tonight. Then I think... I may have a gambling problem.


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