Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Week 5 - A New Strategy: Bet the Dog?

New Betting Strategy:

This came together when I realized a few things:

-Your single-game bets cover some damage, and can net you a small profit.
-Moneyline underdogs payout more than 1-1.
-I have picked 9 out of 12 underdogs correctly this year (75%).
-A lot of underdogs have been winning this year.

So, In effort to cover my parlays, and still have some decent payoffs, I've decided to bet my top 5 underdogs as single-game bets with the moneyline, along with my usual parlay system, which has paid out the last 2 weeks. I also will not be hedging, i want to avoid betting against myself.

Using my current rankings, my bets would look like this:


1. TB +10 v. IND
2. DET +3.5 @ WAS
3. SEA +6 @ PIT
4. *KC +2 over JAX
5. ATL +8 over TEN

Since each of these games pays out more than 1-1, in reality I only need to hit 2 of them to push, and if i keep pace this year I would take down 3-4 each week, which would give me a small profit, and some cover for my parlays, which pay out big when they hit. I'm very curious to see when the moneylines come out for this week, and see what the potential winnings would be.

I'm sticking with my 5 parlay system for the other half of my bets.



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