Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Week 5 - First Impressions - Early Lines are Like Christmas

OK, the lines actually got in early this week, so here's my first impression, in order of conviction:

1. GB over CHI (-3) - Green Bay is one of my few winners all year. They keep winning and covering. CHI is not playing well, and they have 4 new starters in their secondary. Sounds like a good day for Favre to me.

2. TB over IND (+10) - IND as we know is awesome. However, this week's injury bug includes Bob Sanders, Marvin Harrison, and two other defensive starters. IND also struggles (relatively speaking) against teams with power running games and good defenses. Sounds a lot like Tampa. Cadillac being injured sucks, but Pittman is a solid backup and he ran well last week. I love taking the 10 points here.

3. ARI over STL (-3) - For some reason I am still scared of STL. Must be ghosts from the Mike Martz years, because they have played horribly, are injured all up and down the O Line, lost S Jackson, and Bulger is playing with broken ribs. Arizona on the other hand is playing well, Exhibit A being their upset of PIT last week.

4. NYG over NYJ (-3.5) - Both teams are essentially home, here. I don't know what to think about the Jets anymore. Last year a young playoff team, this year some good additions, and they can't put together a win against Buffalo, and squeak past Miami. G-men seem to have found their swagger, and Manning is quietly having a solid year.

5. SEA over PIT (+6) - What to do about Pittsburgh? Getting beat by Arizona hurts, but they looked great the 3 weeks before that. Of course that was against CLE, BUF, and SF. Seattle's a solid team, and I am pretty psyched they are 6 point dogs.

6. DAL over BUF (-10) - Dallas is destroying teams right now. Buffalo is still too banged up and inexperienced to be taken seriously. So far the big 3 (NE, IND, DAL) have been covering the big spreads all year.

7. NE over CLE (-16.5) - The box is going to disagree with me here. Using the same logic as with Dallas, NE hasn't let me down yet.

8. CAR over NO (+3) - This one is interesting. CAR lost DelHomme for a while to injury, so Carr is in. NO is getting off their bye week, so maybe they'll be back on track, and it doesn't hurt to have 2 weeks to gameplan. Having said all that, NO gets beat by running teams and deep threats. I submit DeShaun Foster and Steve Smith. Plus I get 3 points.

9. DET over WAS (+3.5) - This game could go either way I think. If DET gets off to a fast start, Campbell is going to have to air it out to catch up, which could lead to mistakes and gets them out of their Joe Gibbs - running attack game. If WAS controls the clock and plays tight D, they could just as easily win this one. WAS is also coming off a bye week. However, I figure if WAS wins it will be close, so I'll take the points.

10. JAX over KC (-2) - All of a sudden KC looks like a complete team. Bowe is the real deal, and Huard has been utilizing a combination of him and Gonzalez well the last two weeks (both wins). Not to mention L. Johnson is still on the team and has yet to break out. The defense looked intense this week against San Diego, also. Having said all that, though... San Diego was way up in that game, then Rivers just played horribly. They forgot to run the ball in the second half, and had a lot of negative plays. Their other win was a squeaker against lowly MIN. Jacksonville is a conservative team that won't give the game away, plus they've had 2 weeks to heal and gameplan.

11. SD over DEN (+1) - SD still scares me. DEN doesn't impress me. I'll take them as a dog against a weaker opponent still.

12. SF over BAL (+3) - Honestly, I don't like either team, so I'm taking the points.

13. MIA over HOU (+5.5) - At first I picked HOU. But I dunno... They got beat by ATL last week, and this is a big spread for a poor team to cover. Plus, I kinda get the feeling MIA is due.

14. ATL over TN (+8) - I like TN to win here, but 8 points seems like a lot for them. Harrington played well two weeks in a row, so maybe he's finally getting comfortable in the system. Basically at the bottom here, i'm just taking the dogs 'cause i don't trust the favorites.

OK, I'm looking forward to the box's analysis. I've been impressed so far, so minus a substitution or two I'm sticking with you all the way.


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