Monday, December 17, 2007

Week 15 - Bad feelings justified - Weekly Roundup

This is one of those weeks I just shouldn't have bet. I had no confidence in my picks going in, and it turns out for good reason. One thing I should know by now, is that parlays are hard to win anyways, let alone when you don't trust the teams you've included.

Note to self: On iffy weeks, stick to single-game bets.

Onto the analysis...

The Good:

1. JAX +3 vs PIT- Well, well. JAX actually went into PIT and won. I had a good feeling about this game initially, but then faltered until I saw the box agreed with me. Glad I stuck with it, unfortuantely they were in parlays with crap. Moving forward I love this team to keep winning. Who's left on their schedule?

2. NO -3.5 vs ARI- This game scared the crap out of me, but NO pulled it out. Seems like they have rediscovered their 2006 form, and should be a good bet the last couple of weeks. ARI continues to disappoint, and should be a good team to bet against the rest of the way.

3. GB - 8.5 vs STL- GB has been such a good bet this year. This game was close for a little while, but STL's true colors showed up and GB pulled away. I like GB to win out and STL to keep losing to good teams.

The Bad:

1. ATL +13.5 vs TB- I got this one wrong big time. Much like the WAS/Sean Taylor emotional fallout, this game could have gone either way. I guessed that ATL would play hard for pride and keep it close, maybe even upset. The Box had it as the #1 pick... and Ka-Put. They got blown out 37-3. Putting this risky game in a teaser and a parlay was poor gambling too. TB is one of my favorite teams to bet with, I shoulda known better.

2. SEA -7 vs CAR- This was the shocker of the week. CAR has been terrible this year, all year. Zero flashes of potential, and down to their 3rd string QB. SEA has been off/on most of the year, but finally seemed to put it together for a nice winning streak. This game killed me as I had SEA in two parlays and a teaser, so 3 out of my 4 bets blew up based on this game. I don't think anyone saw this coming, and it was just one of those games that made for one of these weeks.

3. BAL -3.5 vs MIA- What... is... going on in BAL? I think this is 8 losses in a row, this time to the winless dolphins. Going into this game I did have a feeling this could be MIA's game to win this year, but logically it didn't make sense. See what logic gets you?

4. IND -10 vs OAK- Didn't see this game, but OAK kept it within 7 points. OAK has been pretty terrible this year, and I took a shot that IND would win big. I definitely wasn't going with OAK after last week's failure. I'd pick this way every week. And I'd be broke.

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