It's time for the weekly comparison of my prelim picks and what Vegas actually set the spreads.
VEGAS ................THE MAD CAPPER............... DIFF.
CHI (+3) at WAS...... CHI (-2) .................... 5.0
CAR (+10.5)at JAX.... JAX (-12) ................... 1.5
DAL (-10.5) at DET... DAL (-10) ................... 0.5
MIA (+7) at BUF...... BUF (-5) .................... 2.0
NYG (+2.5) at PHI.... NYG (-1)..................... 3.5
OAK (+10.5) at GB.... GB (-4)...................... 6.5
PIT (+10) at NE...... NE (-6)...................... 4.0
SD (PICK) at TEN..... SD (-1)...................... 1.0
STL (+6.5) at CIN.... CIN (-5)..................... 1.5
TB (-3) at HOU....... TB (-3)...................... 0.0
ARI (+7) at SEA...... SEA (-3)..................... 4.0
MIN (-9) at SF....... MIN (-9)..................... 0.0
CLE (-6) at NYJ...... CLE (-3.5)................... 2.5
KC (+6.5) at DEN..... DEN (-2)..................... 4.5
IND (-9.5) at BAL.... IND (-12).................... 2.5
NO (-5) at ATL....... NO (-8)...................... 3.0
So it appears we are dealing with 7 games this week (see games in red) where there is atleast a fieldgoal difference between my analysis, and where Vegas has the gambling world placing their money.
1. CHI at WAS: One of only two flip-games of the week. I think CHI will win this one outright, but Vegas is giving them 3 points. Matty's G-SPAM (Alpha, Beta, Sharpe) and GPR (Gambler's Power Rankings) all point to a WAS victory, but I think this a game where past performance is not indicative on how each team is moving forward. WAS is emotionally drained and off-schedule, whereas CHI actually seems to be getting their act together.
2. OAK at GB: This is a risky move on my part, but I was happy to see Matty throw out a 'why Oakland is better' post this week supporting my cause. I think Oakland is underrated right now, and are gonna catch GB in a classic trap game. GB is gonna have a letdown after preparing so hard for Dallas last week. I think GB pulls this one out, but I love OAK to get within 10.5 points.
3. PIT at NE: As we've discussed in the Beta-related posts, this is the one game that makes sense if you are looking at past scoring. NE is averaging 14 more ppg than PIT, and the sprerad is only 10. Also, I do worry about a NE explosion after squeaking wins against inferior opponents the last two weeks, but at the same time I like PIT to keep this game close, and possibly pull an upset. They have equal the defense of BAL or PHI, plus the running game that can move the chains. Lastly, Big Ben is double the QB of Boller or Feeley, and that puts them over the edge.
4. ARI at SEA: Having declared ARI a MPT (multiple personality team), I can't in good conscience continue to bet on games they are playing. However, they are absolutely capable of beating SEA, and are getting 7 points. If there was a gun to my head, I'd take 'em.
5. KC at DEN: This game is a pick-em in my book. Two disappointing teams that will screw you. I gave DEN the edge for being at home, but Vegas is giving KC 6.5 points? This is amazing to me. Even so, I won't be betting this game, I hate it.
6. NO at ATL: This game has blowout written all over it, and NO is only giving 5 points. That's less than two field goals, people. I have NO winning by 8, so much like McDonalds, I'm lovin it.
7. NYG at PHI: I really thought I'd be the only one giving kudos to Philly, turns out I lowballed it. This is flip-game #2 for the week. I thought I was being charitable lowering the G-Men's margin to -1, but Vegas has seen to give them 2.5 points. Very interesting Watson. I'm not sure what Philly is playing for, and I'm not confident in their QB position. I think I have to bet NYG here.
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