The ranks show each team and the percentage difference from the first place team. So this week, for instance, you'll see that the Giants are 49% better than the Cowboys. Which is totally unorthodox, in the last 3 years the closest difference between the 1 and 2 team was 17% to this week - the Giants are 26% better than the closest competitor.
Anyway, I took the difference between the two percentages. Let's take an example: GB plays Detroit in the Who Cares Bowl this week (a little bit earlier than the traditional Thanksgiving Who Cares Bowl with GB/Detroit). GB ranks 9 at 53%, Detroit ranks 31 at 73%. The difference is 20%. I multiplied that by the average points scored per team per game - about 21 to 22 points (I calculate my own on a week by week basis, but see Easterbrook's TMQ this week).
So...
(Team 1 - Team 2) x AvePts = Projected Spread.
In this case,
(53% - 73%) x 21.2 = -4.2.
Vegas has this spread at -13.5, and this rudimentary version of a betting system has it -4.2, suggesting Vegas is overestimating. So in this case, bet Detroit. I ranked my "best bets" by the biggest differences in percentages. Bush league, but seems to work. I have to back test it, but my ranks suddenly have relevance. Bingo.
| Power Ranks | ▲▼ | %FromTop | W/L/T | ATS | |
| 1 | NYG | 0% | 5 - 0 - 0 | 4 - 1 - 0 | |
| 2 | MIN | ▲3 | 26% | 5 - 0 - 0 | 4 - 1 - 0 |
| 3 | IND | ▼1 | 34% | OFF | OFF |
| 4 | NO | 37% | 4 - 0 - 0 | 4 - 0 - 0 | |
| 5 | PHI | ▲1 | 40% | 2 - 1 - 0 | 2 - 1 - 0 |
| 6 | JAC | ▼3 | 47% | 2 - 2 - 0 | 3 - 1 - 0 |
| 7 | DEN | 49% | 5 - 0 - 0 | 5 - 0 - 0 | |
| 8 | DAL | 49% | OFF | OFF | |
| 9 | GB | 53% | 2 - 2 - 0 | 2 - 2 - 0 | |
| 10 | ATL | ▲2 | 54% | 3 - 1 - 0 | 3 - 1 - 0 |
| 11 | SEA | ▲3 | 56% | 1 - 3 - 0 | 1 - 3 - 0 |
| 12 | PIT | ▼1 | 56% | 3 - 2 - 0 | 1 - 4 - 0 |
| 13 | BAL | ▼3 | 57% | 3 - 2 - 0 | 3 - 2 - 0 |
| 14 | KC | ▲2 | 59% | 0 - 4 - 0 | 1 - 3 - 0 |
| 15 | CHI | ▲8 | 60% | 3 - 1 - 0 | 3 - 1 - 0 |
| 16 | NE | ▲3 | 60% | 3 - 2 - 0 | 2 - 3 - 0 |
| 17 | MIA | 61% | OFF | OFF | |
| 18 | NYJ | ▼5 | 61% | 3 - 2 - 0 | 3 - 2 - 0 |
| 19 | SD | ▲3 | 61% | 2 - 2 - 0 | 1 - 3 - 0 |
| 20 | SF | ▼2 | 61% | OFF | OFF |
| 21 | HOU | ▼6 | 62% | 2 - 3 - 0 | 2 - 3 - 0 |
| 22 | ARI | ▼2 | 64% | 2 - 2 - 0 | 2 - 2 - 0 |
| 23 | WAS | ▼2 | 65% | 2 - 3 - 0 | 2 - 3 - 0 |
| 24 | TEN | ▲3 | 66% | 0 - 5 - 0 | 1 - 4 - 0 |
| 25 | BUF | ▲1 | 67% | 1 - 4 - 0 | 2 - 3 - 0 |
| 26 | CLE | ▼2 | 67% | 1 - 4 - 0 | 2 - 3 - 0 |
| 27 | CIN | ▼2 | 68% | 4 - 1 - 0 | 3 - 2 - 0 |
| 28 | TB | ▲1 | 70% | 0 - 5 - 0 | 1 - 4 - 0 |
| 29 | CAR | ▲3 | 71% | 1 - 3 - 0 | 0 - 4 - 0 |
| 30 | STL | 72% | 0 - 5 - 0 | 1 - 4 - 0 | |
| 31 | DET | ▼3 | 73% | 1 - 4 - 0 | 2 - 3 - 0 |
| 32 | OAK | ▼1 | 76% | 1 - 4 - 0 | 2 - 3 - 0 |
And here are the picks based on this system for this week - not my legit picks, but using the above method. If there's anyone who reads this, they can try to bet it.
| PredFav | PredSp | Pick | Conv |
| SEA | -1.6 | ARI | 7.50% |
| ATL | -1.2 | CHI | 5.87% |
| NYJ | -1.3 | BUF | 5.94% |
| DEN | -2.6 | DEN | 12.15% |
| JAC | -5.4 | STL | 25.34% |
| NE | -1.2 | TEN | 5.66% |
| PHI | -7.8 | OAK | 36.63% |
| GB | -4.2 | DET | 19.90% |
| PIT | -2.2 | CLE | 10.45% |
| KC | -1.3 | KC | 5.91% |
| HOU | -1.2 | HOU | 5.65% |
| MIN | -6.7 | MIN | 31.61% |
| TB | -0.3 | TB | 1.56% |
| NYG | -7.7 | NYG | 36.51% |
What do you think?
Oh yeah, and yes, Jacksonville and Dallas are actually in the top 10. *tear.
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