Week 12 - Early Picks and Wall Street Ranks

The early picks are definitely preliminary, as Vegas can't seem to decide how to handicap the NE game. Again. In the rankings, I've highlighted to DET/GB game, where GB is currently favored by 3 to give an example of how the financial rankings can make the difference in a pick. The Sharpe and Alpha rankings are exactly flip flopped, and these teams execute very well, but the Beta indicates that GB is far more likely to do it again. Of course, because it's a 3 point game, the Box picks DET (the game is outside the <3 point margin for financial override), but at least it illustrates some things to consider. Here are the rankings and picks:

	Sharpe	Alpha	Beta
Team	Rank	Rank	Rank
ARI	9	13	6
ATL	31	32	30
BAL	27	19	11
BUF	28	30	9
CAR	26	11	19
CHI	21	28	32
CIN	7	5	15
CLE	3	7	25
DAL	2	1	31
DEN	22	25	2
DET	12	6	22
GB	6	12	12
HOU	11	10	1
IND	5	3	26
JAC	16	27	23
KC	29	31	29
MIA	23	15	21
MIN	20	17	7
NE	1	2	8
NO	14	24	24
NYG	8	4	28
NYJ	25	14	13
OAK	24	9	3
PHI	15	22	20
PIT	4	8	17
SD	10	18	27
SEA	13	16	5
SF	32	23	16
STL	30	29	4
TB	19	26	18
TEN	18	21	14
WAS	17	20	10

THE PICKS	Over /
* considers lay in pick order	Under
1. MIN +7.5 v. NYG Away	42.5
2. BUF +7.5 v. JAC Away x2!	42.5
3. STL +3 v. SEA @Home x2! - Bet Soon	38.5
4. SF +10 v. ARI Away - Bet Soon	35.5
5. DET +3 v. GB @Home - Bet Soon	42.5
6. WAS +3 v. TB Away - Bet Soon	43.0
7. CIN +1 v. TEN @Home	40.0
8. CAR +3 v. NO @Home - Bet Soon	38.5
9. DEN +2 v. CHI Away	40.5
10. BAL +9 v. SD Away - Bet Soon	40.5
11. NYJ +14 v. DAL Away - Bet Soon	44.0
12. MIA +16 v. PIT Away - Bet Soon	40.5
13. OAK +5.5 v. KC Away	38.0
14. CLE -3.5 v. HOU @Home	40.5
15. ATL +12 v. IND @Home - Bet Soon	42.0
16. PHI +22.5 v. NE Away	47.5

I expect the picks to change when the NE spread is finalized and by tomorrow evening when the spreads move a bit further off their opening lines, so stay tuned for a repeat pick post tomorrow or early on Turkey Day. The only favorite on the roster this week is CLE, but I'm glad it's the Box's 14th ranked pick, since HOU's return of Johnson and Schaub makes me nervous. The combo has the ability to be a Box buster, even against a scrappy Derek Andersen.

Notice in the WS Ranks how NE's beta actually DROPPED from last week because they outscored themselves, hence adding a layer of volatility. I'm not sure how DAL is even in the same league as NE in terms of output, but I think the Alpha rankings are the only rankings in the country that have DAL number 1 and NE number 2. That should at least make Dallas fans happy, until of course Dallas plays the Pats again for the ring and loses by 20 or 30 or 40 points. It's got to make you feel warm and fuzzy to see San Francisco and Miami ranked above anyone in SOMETHING, even if it is for consistent poor play.