Thursday, November 15, 2007

Week 11 - Moneyline Ranks, Brown Is the New Black

What's interesting about the moneyline ranks, having completed the financial metric module to the Black Box (if you haven't been reading, Alpha, Beta, and Sharpe ratios), is the apparent lack of top tier teams in the top 5. This is for 2 reasons: 1.) time - I haven't had enough time with the financial rankings to make the most efficient use of them, and 2.) cost - my old module that considers the lay (cost to place the bet) is outdated now. You'll notice that it's low cost games at the top and high cost at the bottom, which shouldn't necessarily be the case - it should be a mixture depending on a volatility to cost ratio or something similar. This requires some updating, I'll shoot for updates by next Thursday's moneyline article.

Here are the moneyline rankings (not listed are OFF games):

* considers lay in pick order
1. CLE -145 v. BAL Away
2. TEN +130 v. DEN Away
3. CIN -165 v. ARI @Home
4. STL -145 v. SF @Home
5. JAC -145 v. SD @Home
6. NYG -140 v. DET Away
7. SEA -260 v. CHI Away
8. TB -175 v. ATL Away
9. GB -450 v. CAR Away
10. MIN -245 v. OAK @Home
11. DAL -550 v. WAS @Home
12. PHI -520 v. MIA Away
13. PIT -450 v. NYJ @Home

A couple of away teams at the top, but I really like the top 5. Cleveland's ability to score should keep this game well out of Baltimore's reach, and the game is cheap right now. The wildcard in this game will be Boller (did I just say Boller was a wildcard?). If Boller comes out strong, they will keep Cleveland on its toes, though I don't anticipate this being much of a game. Cleveland's Sharpe and Alpha rank in the top 10 in the league, indicating that they have been outplaying themselves, despite a low ranking on the Beta (volatility) score. TEN is another quality pick, I think, though I'm worried this may the trap game of the week. I don't bet deep into moneylines, unless I'm doing a parlay, but the top two seem like strong bets. TEN's D will give DEN a hard time, but it's up to Vince Young to really make this a game. CIN is the only team that ranks in the top 13 team for all the financials, and this game may actually be the lock of the week for the money once I finish a new moneyline ranking module.

I've updated the spreads with today's lines in the Spread rankings, so here are my matchups as picked by the Box (where it says "x2!", the Box suggest doubling the bet as it's a low volatility, high return game; where it says "Bet Soon", it indicates a pushable line, and a move either way could affect your bet):

1. WAS +10.5 v. DAL Away
2. NO +1 v. HOU Away x2!
3. MIA +10 v. PHI Away - Bet Soon
4. CAR +9.5 v. GB Away x2!
5. OAK +5 v. MIN Away x2!
6. DET +2.5 v. NYG @Home
7. NYJ +9.5 v. PIT @Home
8. SF +2.5 v. STL @Home
9. CHI +5.5 v. SEA Away
10. SD +3 v. JAC Away - Bet Soon
11. TEN +2 v. DEN Away
12. ARI +3 v. CIN Away - Bet Soon
13. KC +14.5 v. IND Away
14. ATL +3 v. TB @Home - Bet Soon
15. BAL +2.5 v. CLE @Home
16. BUF +16 v. NE @Home - Bet Soon

Almost no changes from Tuesday's post, but I did some digging, and have decided to drastically change my betting patterns. I made the rookie mistake of betting "fun" games - teasers and parlays with big payouts and low chances. If I had been sticking to my top 5 picks only all season, my returns go from this:

Initial $s: $139.16
Bet Totals: $371.00
Potential Winnings: $771.96
Payouts: $429.48
Actual Profit: $58.48
Gain/Loss 42.02%

to THIS:

Week Bets Return Profit Balance % Gain/Loss
Initial $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $50.00 0%
Week 1 $40.00 $60.74 $20.74 $70.74 41%
Week 2 $40.00 $63.10 $23.10 $93.84 88%
Week 3 $40.00 $46.01 $6.01 $99.85 100%
Week 4 $56.60 $78.67 $22.07 $121.92 144%
Week 5 $63.03 $17.99 ($45.04) $76.88 54%
Week 6 $62.51 $57.87 ($4.64) $72.24 44%
Week 7 $65.00 $108.92 $43.92 $116.16 132%
Week 8 $64.60 $58.25 ($6.35) $109.81 120%
Week 9 $55.63 $105.54 $49.91 $159.72 219%
Week 10 $57.38 $96.94 $39.56 $199.28 299%

Account Load: $50.00

Balance: $199.28

Profit: $149.28

Gain/Loss: 299%

I'm giving up OVER 250% FOR FUN. Unacceptable. Note to self: stick to the basics, stop sucking.

Final bets have been made, I'll post them here tomorrow.

No comments: