Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Week 12 - Final Pick Ranks

Despite travel fatigue, I am true to the cause - here are the final pre-bet rankings for both spread and moneylines this week:

The Rankings - Spread

* considers lay in pick order Under
1. MIN +7.5 v. NYG Away 42.5
2. BUF +7.5 v. JAC Away 42.5
3. STL +3 v. SEA @Home x2! - Bet Soon 38.5
4. SF +10 v. ARI Away x2! - Bet Soon 35.5
5. DET +3 v. GB @Home - Bet Soon 42.5
6. WAS +3 v. TB Away - Bet Soon 43.0
7. CIN +1 v. TEN @Home 40.0
8. CAR +3 v. NO @Home - Bet Soon 38.5
9. DEN +2 v. CHI Away 40.5
10. BAL +9 v. SD Away - Bet Soon 40.5
11. NYJ +14 v. DAL Away - Bet Soon 44.0
12. MIA +16 v. PIT Away - Bet Soon 40.5
13. OAK +5 v. KC Away 38.0
14. CLE -3.5 v. HOU @Home 40.5
15. ATL +12 v. IND @Home - Bet Soon 42.0
16. PHI +22.5 v. NE Away 47.5

No changes in the spread, I don't think, with the exception of NE officially being 22.5. I read the line opened at 17 and within minutes it was 22 as money poured in. When they play the Jets later this season, I expect nothing less than a 55 point spread. Here are the moneyline ranks:

The Rankings - Moneyline

* considers lay in pick order
1. SEA -160 v. STL @Home x2!
2. CLE -170 v. HOU Away x2!
3. GB -190 v. DET @Home
4. TB -175 v. WAS Away
5. DEN +130 v. CHI Away
6. NO -140 v. CAR @Home
7. ARI -550 v. SF Away
8. NYG -320 v. MIN Away
9. JAC -350 v. BUF Away
10. SD -440 v. BAL Away
11. KC -240 v. OAK Away
12. IND -700 v. ATL @Home

I've altered the moneyline system slightly for this week, this is a trial run. I don't have much in the way of historical lays on moneylines, if anyone knows where I can get this info, I would love to have it. Right now the moneyline is chosen by the best Alpha, Sharpe, and Win Percentage. The new caveat is the rank order, which is now calculated using cost (the lay) per unit of risk (beta). This will move high cost games to the bottom if they are risky. For the small historical sample, it seems to work well at weeding out expensive and risky games. No telling yet how well the top 3 perform yet with any solid historical perspective, so we'll revisit this again later when I have better data.

I will be posting my final bets shortly once I decide on the best combination of risk. Lots of double bets this week in my top ranks, and also some nice hedges (STL +3 x2, SEA -160 x2) which will mitigate some of the risk while giving up some returns - worthwhile considering last week's debacle. What the Box says, Matt does.

1 comment:

The Mad Capper said...

NOOOO! You're going back to hedging? Haven't we learned not to bet against ourselves? 2 of the outcomes yield a loss, and only 1 yields a gain! This especially sucks with a close spread like SEA -3 vs STL.... You are betting that SEA wins by exactly 1 or 2! what are the odds of that?