That's right, I said flaccid.
So, you ask a good question, but I of course have an amazing answer.
The way the double down is figured is Beta only - so I throw Sharpe and Alpha out the window, since they are useful primarily in the moneyline bets. The system picks NO based on the statistics - but the double down is chosen by picking the best possible GAME beta (HOU beta + NO beta). So thanks to HOU being a solidly consistent team, it brings down the overall beta rank. If the game beta ranks in the top 50% of games, PLUS the pick is one of the top 5, the system suggest a bet doubling.
My fear in this game is the return of Schaub and Johnson at the same time - it inevitably will alter the beta if they perform really well, since there will be some volatility. This makes this double down risky, but a necessary evil - hard to argue with results (17x more money on double down bets in the last two years). Fortunately, I have doubles on two other top 5 games, so hopefully something hits.