Week 10 - Lions #1! - Mad Capper vs Vegas

I was pretty much on target this week, which doesn't make for interesting debate. However, the Lions vs Cardinals game wasn't even close - here's the breakdown:

VEGAS ................THE MAD CAPPER...............DIFF.
jax (+4.5) at ten.... jax (+5)..................... 0.5
den (+4) at KC....... den (+3)..................... 1.0
buf (-2.5) at mia.... buf (-6)..................... 3.5
cle (+9.5) at pit.... cle (+4)..................... 5.5
stl (+11.5) at NO.... stl (+10).................... 1.5
atl (+4) at car...... atl (+2)..................... 2.0
phi (+2.5) at was.... phi (+5)..................... 2.5
min (+6)at gb........ min (+5)..................... 1.0
cin (+4) at bal...... cin (+3)..................... 1.0
chi (-3) at oak...... chi (-4)..................... 1.0
dal (-1.5) at nyg.... dal (even) .................. 1.5
det (+1) at ari...... det (-10).................... 11.0
ind (-3.5) at sd..... ind (-6)..................... 2.5
sf (+10) at sea...... sf (+3)...................... 7.0
The games in red are those where there is more than a 3 point differential between me and the Vegas line. These are the picks I will concentrate on for betting the spread. In order of conviction:

1. det (+1) over ari - with an 11 point differential, this is easily the favorite of the week.

2.buf (-2.5) over mia - 3.5 differential, and the big 'mo' is going in opposite directions for miami and buffalo. love this pick.

3.cle (+9.5) over pit - Pit looks impressive, but i still think cleveland is underrated. As Matty pointed out, they are 6-1 vs the spread this year, and so far I don't think the spreads are giving them enough credit for the year they are having. Just for kicks, throw in the fact that Big Ben is hurting, they have a short week, and there may be a little lax attitude after blowing out division rival baltimore.

4.ind (-3.5) at sd - SD continues to wield some sort of gambling spell over the spreads, even though they aren't the team people think they are. Indy will rebound after losing a tough game to NE, and 3.5 points is not nearly enough respect for Indy.

The rest of the games are risky bets in my opinion.. they could go either way. I'll definitely be checking out the box before making my final picks.