Week 13 - Wall Street Ranks

So the power ranks are in, and I added a new feature - the overall rank. It's a combination of Sharpe and Alpha total convictions (Beta is a component of Alpha, and Sharpe has its own risk adjustment, so adding Beta into the mix would be redundant). I have also further refined the Sharpe rank to account only for points scored ABOVE the spread. By doing this, I'm actually ranking a team's consistent ability to bust a spread, and hopefully making it far more useful for parlays in the future. The alpha and beta are very much the same, but I've slightly tweaked how they are scaled for ranking purposes, so there may be a minor rank change from last week's post. This has had little effect on the rankings, but has improved the double bet performance.

Here are the financials - if you want to see any specific game breakdowns this week, let me know, and I can post it:

	Sharpe	Alpha	Beta
Team	Rank	Rank	Rank
ARI	15	13	18
ATL	28	32	31
BAL	30	19	9
BUF	23	30	19
CAR	24	12	5
CHI	19	28	32
CIN	18	5	7
CLE	12	7	26
DAL	3	1	1
DEN	25	25	16
DET	14	6	4
GB	4	11	21
HOU	17	10	15
IND	2	3	3
JAC	6	27	27
KC	26	31	30
MIA	32	17	24
MIN	11	16	10
NE	1	2	12
NO	16	24	28
NYG	13	4	2
NYJ	31	14	20
OAK	21	9	11
PHI	10	22	25
PIT	5	8	6
SD	9	18	29
SEA	7	15	13
SF	29	23	8
STL	27	29	14
TB	8	26	23
TEN	22	21	22
WAS	20	20	17

A lot of the same from last week, but I did note a trend that most of the press has given a lot of attention. Tennessee's fall from grace has been nothing if not meteoric, and it has largely been attributed to the absence of Albert Haynesworth. But is it really just one man that makes the difference?

If I look back in the rankings, we see the following:

		Sharpe	Alpha	Beta
Week 8	TEN	4	20	22
Week 9	TEN	5	20	21
Week 10	TEN	5	20	22
Week 11	TEN	10	20	22
Week 12	TEN	16	21	22
Week 13	TEN	22	21	22

The most obvious drop is in the Sharpe, and boy does it drop. Nearly 20 spots in 3 weeks. But the alpha and beta exactly the same since week 8. So what does that tell us?

Well, since Sharpe measures point output over the spread adjusted for risk, it's clear they can't score, not that they can't play defense. The loss of Haynesworth has been a problem, but what it's highlighted is the poor play of Vince Young and the Titan offense more than anything else. Teams are stacking 8 in the box and making Young beat them with his arm, something he has yet to prove he can really do, especially with this young receiver core. The real Titans show up in the alpha and beta ranks, which take into account statistics that correct for league averages as well as point output. They have consistently ranked in the bottom half of the league. So, will the real Titans please stand up? The Box will be hard pressed to take them as favorites for the rest of the year, with or without Haynesworth.

Here are the overall financial rankings, the new segment. This should closely compare with most of the power rankings out there, with a few exceptions.

Financial
Overall Rank
1	NE
2	DAL
3	IND
4	PIT
5	GB	▲1
6	NYG	▼1
7	DET
8	CLE
9	CIN
10	SEA	▲1
11	OAK	▲1
12	HOU	▼2
13	SD	▲2
14	MIN	▲3
15	ARI	▼2
16	PHI
17	CAR	▼3
18	TB
19	JAC	▲2
20	NO	▲2
21	WAS	▼1
22	TEN	▼3
23	CHI	▲3
24	DEN	▲1
25	NYJ	▼2
26	BAL	▼2
27	SF	▲3
28	BUF	▼1
29	MIA	▼1
30	STL	▼1
31	KC
32	ATL

The arrows indicate a change from last week's overall rank. Big movers are Tennessee, SF, Chicago, Carolina, and Minnesota. Upward motion from Chicago, SF, and Minnesota reflect the great play and wins in Week 12, while the drop in Tennessee (see above) and Carolina reflect losses. The triumphant return of Steve Smith couldn't even outshadow the QB troubles for the Panthers.

Biggest surprise: Jacksonville at 19 despite it's record. Jacksonville has a long history of playing up or down to competition. Their consistency, especially against their statistical expectations, is terrible. It may be brought down mostly by the residual effects of the 41-24 drubbing New Orleans gave them a few weeks ago, but they currently sit at number 19. As I get deeper into the stats, maybe I'll get a specific explanation for that posted here this week.