So, just as an FYI Capper, here are the Box's "Predicted" spreads based on the stats. I'd be interested to see how big the differences are from the Box spreads - maybe you could have a Cap vs. The Box parlay.
| Favorite | Where | Vegas | Box | Dog |
| JAC | Home | -3.0 | -0.5 | SD |
| IND | Home | -14.5 | -4.8 | KC |
| CIN | Home | -3.0 | -2.3 | ARI |
| CLE | Away | -2.5 | -1.6 | BAL |
| TB | Away | -3.0 | -1.3 | ATL |
| HOU | Home | -1.0 | 1.3 | NO |
| GB | Home | -9.5 | -5.5 | CAR |
| MIN | Home | -5.0 | -2.8 | OAK |
| PHI | Home | -10.0 | -1.7 | MIA |
| NYG | Away | -2.5 | -2.2 | DET |
| PIT | Away | -9.5 | -1.9 | NYJ |
| DAL | Home | -10.5 | -4.4 | WAS |
| STL | Away | -2.5 | -1.7 | SF |
| SEA | Home | -5.5 | -3.1 | CHI |
| NE | Away | -16.0 | -4.1 | BUF |
| DEN | Home | -2.0 | 0.8 | TEN |
Just at a glance, it looks like CAR would be your pick of the week if the Box were Vegas. Which also agrees with what the Box suggests - CAR is the 4th ranked pick, and a suggested double down bet based on the Beta.
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