Thursday, September 25, 2008

Back on the Horse - Week 4 Madcapping

Sorry I've been AWOL this week, the job that actually pays had me pretty tied up. So after last week's rotten performance, it's back on the horse this week. I'm very tempted to find two or three bets I like most and screw diversification. With the unpredictability of the NFL, this may actually work out better. Let's take a look at the matchups:

GB(+1) @ TB
...So let me get this straight: GB loses to DAllas like everyone else and they are 'dogs against the Bucs? Al Harris is out for a while, and TB beat CHI in OT last week, bu t I just don't see it. GB was a force in Weeks 1-3, and they still are.

Madcapping: GB 23 - TB 19
Confidence: 80%

ARI(+1.5) @ NYJ
...I need to resist the urge to outsmart myself here. Reality is both these teams are unreliable, and anything could happen. Personally I like the Jets. They need the win more, and they are home against a team from the West. An often overlooked fact is that teams that travel cross country have a terrible record. Travel time and jet lag matter.

Madcapping: ARI 20 - NYJ 23
Confidence: 60%

ATL (+7)@ CAR
...CAR lost its first game last week at MIN, and I am betting they are out for blood this week. ATL is 2-1, but their wins are against KC and DET. I love CAR to win this game, but the spread is high enough to raise concerns. The Moneyline and Teaser Bets should make this game more worthwhile.

Madcapping: ATL 9 - CAR 19
Confidence: 70%

SF(+5.5) @ NO
...Very very interesting matchup. Normally I would say NO is going to blow out SF due to their offensive power, but #1 receiver Colston is out injured, as is TE Shockey. McCallister hasn't played yet due to injuries either. I've been touting the new SF QB O'Sullivan, for a couple weeks now, so it may just be time to put my money where my mouth is.

Madcapping: SF 20 - NO 19
Confidence: 70%

TEN(-3) v. MIN

...Well MIN beat CAR last week and completely screwed me, so the question is will they beat arguably the AFC's toughest team on their turf? I think not. TN's Defense has proven itself to be stout, and I don't see MIN having enough firepower to score many points. TEN's ground game has been very effective, so I see this as a ball-control low scoring game. The TEN-3 spread makes this a difficult bet, though. I recommend staying away.

Madcapping: TN 14 - MIN 13
Confidence: NONE.

BUF(-8) @ STL

...BUF is getting some serious credibility now, and against a terrible STL team this spread is certainly justifiable, but I just don't like betting on spreads this high. BUF in a teaser makes a lot of sense, so that's my call.

Madcapping: BUF 24 - STL 10
Confidence: 90% (6 point Teaser)

DEN(-10) @ KC
...DEN's offense has been damn impressive, and KC has looked awful. KC is going back to Huard, which should keep this game closer than it otherwise would be, they are home in Arrowhead, and DEN hasn't shown much defensively. I like Denver to cover, but it's risky. Could be a good Teaser option, though.

Madcapping: DEN 30 - KC 20
Confidence: 80% (6 point Teaser)

WAS(+11) @ DAL
...Betting against DAL this year is like betting against NE. They are gonna get huge spreads, but they are absolutely capable of blowing them up. Other than a Teaser, I'd stay away.

Madcapping: WAS 17 - DAL 27
Confidence: 80% (6 point Teaser)

CLE(+3.5) @ CIN
...I think this game is a huge overreaction to CLE's losses to 3 tough teams and Cincy's playing NYG tough last week. The browns have cost me 3 weeks in a row, but I am tupid enough to stick with them one more week. I'd take the moneyline bet here and run.

Madcapping: CLE 24 - CIN 20
Confidence: 70%

OAK(+9) v. SD
...So is Kiffin fired or not? It doesn't matter. This game is a matter of how badly will SD win. I like them to cover and I like them in a Teaser.

Madcapping: SD 30 - OAK 9
Confidence: 80%

JAC (-7.5)
v. HOU
...JAC got off to a rocky start with a banged up interior O-Line, but beat IND last week. HOU has not looked good offensively, so I think Vegas has set a very reasonable spread here. Could be another good Teaser Bet.

Madcapping: JAC 22 - HOU 14
Confidence: 80%

1 comment:

chris.franks said...

Ariz. stayed the week on the east coast to prevent that west coast hangover you mentioned. Still a tough game to cap.