Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Week 04 - Preliminary Picks

The moneylines are in, a bunch of games are waiting on injury reports, but here are preliminary picks:

Rank Pick Vs Spd Bet %
1 GB @ TB +1 21%
2 ARI @ NYJ +1.5 21%
3 ATL @ CAR +7 20%
4 SF @ NO +5.5 19%
5 TEN v. MIN -3 18%
6 BUF @ STL -8
7 DEN @ KC -10
8 WAS @ DAL +11
9 CLE @ CIN +3.5
10 OAK v. SD +9
11 JAC v. HOU -7.5

and ML:

Rank Pick Vs ML Bet %
1 BUF @ STL -360 40%
2 ATL @ CAR +260 31%
3 SF @ NO +200 29%
4 TEN v. MIN -160
5 DEN @ KC -460
6 CIN v. CLE -190
7 JAC v. HOU -350
8 SD @ OAK -350
9 DAL v. WAS -500

Bets I Love:
I love taking SF of NO surprisingly. I think NO secondary is suspect, they'll stack the line against Gore, and it'll be a much closer game than it seems. The GB pick seems like a trap to me, especially now that Al Harris is done for the season. But I do like the ARI pick over the Jets - Favre finally showed his true colors last week. He's like a lost child with the Jets, and the wear and tear of NYC will hit him harder and harder if they keep losing.

Bets I Hate:
ATL over CAR is just not something I can get into. I think ATL has a shot here, but they're so volatile. Also, I hate taking BUF over STL, no matter how sure a thing it seems. Last week, NE/MIA was just a total waste, considering my payout on the $12 bet was $1.80. Cost benefit = terrible.

Bets I Wish The Box Took:
CLE over CIN. I think Derek Andersen needs to fear for his job. Every game. I bet he plays twice as well. Last season he was constantly concerned that Quinn was a possiblity, no matter how well he played. I think CLE will run rampant, and people are overreacting to CIN's performance against the Giants last week.

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