Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Week 1 Post-Capped

So I skipped week 1, the most useless week for Matty's so called "historical data". Not the most exciting victory this week, Mattyboy, Mr. 1.49% return. Although in fairness that would be an impressive 25% return over the season.

ok, it's early and i'm rambling. Here are my takes on the week 1 action:

NYG (-4.5) def was - This is basically how I would have capped this game. Despite the yearly predictions for the return of the Skins, they keep changing coaches and bringing in over-rated or over-the-hill free agents. The Giants are the defending SB Champs, much like the Patriots of '02... they're a team who got hot at the right time and played the game of their lives against a superior opponent who was not up to the fight. Point is... they are very beatable. This game went ot the Giants by 9, but Looking forward I expect both teams to struggle against decent teams.

det (-3) @ ATL - This is probably a game I would have stayed away from. With such a low spread, and two teams expected to be lousy, it's just risky business. I believe in laymen's terms, this is what Matty would call 'Low Game Value'.

cin (-1.5) @ BAL - I might have flubbed this one, thinking that Baltimore's rookie head coach and rookie QB would struggle too much, even against the weak Bengals. Looking forwad, I will still bet against both teams regularly. Look for Baltimore to be over-rated next week.

sea (-1) @ BUF - I really like Buffalo, and regularly underrate Seattle, so I probably would have overthought and bet wrong here. I think this game showed us two things: (1) SEA is in trouble, they now have lost 3 WRs to injury, and (2) BUF is for real. Look to bet against the 'Hawks next week, but beware Buffalo fever driving up the spread too high also.

nyj (-3) @ MIA - Ooh I would have creamed this bet. I can't believe the Jets were only giving 3 points. The dolphins are better with Pennington than... well whoever they have on the bench, but let's not forget this is year 1 of rebuilding and they have gutted their organization. Anytime you see a small spread against the 'fins, you gotta bet against them. Watch out for the Jets. They have some offensive firepower. Coles and Cotchery and Jones have been for real for years, now with the bombs-away Favre behind center, they could really screw up some spreads.

kc (+16.5) @ NE - Nobody thought Cassel would be the QB for this game, so basically every bettor's logic flew out the window in the 8th minute. Here's my take on the Pats: remember 2001. Bledsoe goes down and a young, unproven Brady was given gameplans emphasizing ball control, field position, and time of possession. This is exactly what I saw the Patriots run with Cassel this week, and it's a style of play the Pats have not run in years. Opponents won't have film to work off of and I expect NE to win a lot of games by close margins. Bet them any week they are 'dogs. KC... well they are gonna play spoiler this year. Bet against them and we'll cry together when they pull a couple off.

tb (+3) @ NO - Oh matty you must have cried your eyes out when Reggie took that short pass to the house, going up by 4 and barely covering the spread in the final minutes. This matchup is always a nightmare. NO should win, but TB always plays tough. TB is about what they were last year, a 9-7 team. Hard to bet a team like that. NO has the potential to win 13+, but is a media darling, which may lead to their spreads being too high.

stl (+7.5) @ PHI - What a shelacking. And a predictable one. PHI is for real, STL is terrible. Wish I would have bet this one.

hou (+6.5) @ PIT - Ditto.

JAX (-3) @ TN - This one would have cost me. I have zero respect for Vince Young, and love JAX. I'm shocked the spread was only 3, and still can't believe TN upset them. I heard one announcer say "well, JAX just doesn't match up well with TN". This is basically my opinion.

CLE (+6) @ DAL - The Browns are this year's Saints. BEWARE! They had an unexpected run at the playoffs last year, and are suddenly the center of tons of media attention. Don't forget that despite the aerial show Anderson to Edwards was last year, their defense stunk. This year every team has a year of film to use in gameplanning against the previously unknown Anderson. Edwards missed most of camp, and they traded their draft picks for a couple guys who probably would have been cut anyways. In other news, Dallas is pretty frickin good. Watch how high the spreads get.

CAR (+9) @ SD - Carolina was given quite a few points here, and they didn't even need them on the road. This is a team who was destroyed by injuries last year. They could be a solid pick week in and week out until the media gets a hold of them. SD is a dangerous team to bet with, because they are regularly giving so many points, and tend to lose close games to good competition. My positin is bet against them. They won't cover high spreads, and will lose games with low spreads.

ARI (-2.5) @ SF - Let's be clear. They 49ers are just as bad this year as they have been since Garcia left town. Giving up only a couple points would have been a clear good-bet for me here. ARI will disappoint regularly this season, but you should have bet with them on this one.

CHI (+9.5) @ IND - Upset of the week! Man this is crazy. Indy went down at home? To Kyle Orton? This game is a fluke. Vegas might give excellent odds on Indy and against Chicago in week 2, so keep an eye out.

MIN (+2.5) @ GB - This one might have screwed me, and I blame ESPN. I have heard nothing but praise for MIN. This is the year bla bla bla. Something that seems to slip through the cracks with all the Favre focus is this.... GB was awesome last year (13-3). They dont' buy high-priced free agents, which means their entire team is built through the draft, which means their entire team is young and not overpriced. Favre was not the reason they went to the playoffs last year. GB is an excellent organization, and I look forward to them being underrated at the beginning of this year. MIN is still a mystery to me. T Jackson is unproven still, and who exactly is their big WR threat supposed to be? Berrian? whee.

Den (-3) @ OAK - Only 3 points against the Raiders? Damn I should have bet this game. Cutler has established himself as the leader in Denver (Go Vandy, by the way), and did it while unknowingly having DIABETES.... Think about that for a second. OK since you don't know what diabetes actually does, I'll tell you: your body can't get the sugar out of your bloodstream and use it for energy. So basically Cutler threw for 3,000 yds without the benefit of actually using the food he ate for energy (in case you are curious, he lost 25 lbs last year due to this). Also, since the sugar stays in the blood stream, it builds up to toxic levels. So yes, he did this while basically being poisoned. OAK just ruined their salary cap for years with their crappy FA signings, this was a gimme.

With that 20/20 hindsight, look for my picks in week 2, when i put my money where my keyboard is.

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