Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Week 2 Victories Diminished by Cowardly Crennel

This week was almost one of those giants that vindicates my parlay system. Your humble narrator picked correctly time and again this week, and all that awaited two parlay winners was for PIT to cover -6.5 vs CLE. Easy money.

... Except it poured, and the offenses sputtered. No problem, though. PIT is up by 7, 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter with CLE in the Red Zone. PIT's defense is holding, bringing up 4th and 7, CLE has to go for the TD to tie and....what?! Field Goal Unit comes in, kicks the 3, killing the spread AND their chances to win the game. Naturally they never got another chance to score the TD they needed. Fuck You, Crennel. Fuck You.

Oh yeah, just to rub some salt in the wound, PIT drove down in the final minutes to within field goal range. 4 down... and did they kick the field goal to put them back up by 7, thereby helping out all their local fans that bet on their home team to cover, and simultaneously protecting against a miracle CLE TD that would lose the game? Did they??? Nooooo, of course not. They ran it up the middle, giving up possession, stopping the clock and letting the spread stay defeated. Fuck You, Tomlin. Fuck You.

Overall a good weak though:


1. GB (-3) over DET -- NE (+1) over NYJ -- PIT (-6.5) over CLE - Lost (see above)
2. GB (-3) over DET -- SD (+1) over DEN -- PIT (-6.5) over CLE - Lost (see above)
3. SD (+1) over DEN -- NE (+1) over NYJ -- NO (-1) over WAS - Lost (NO vs WAS)


1. NYG (-2.5) over STL -- GB (+3) over DET -- NE (+7) over NYJ -- PIT (-1/2) over CLE
- This 4-team teaser hit with a 3:1 payout. I loved this pick before and love it even more now. This covered my parlay losses, leaving it up to the moneyline picks to bring me a profit.


1. IND (-130) over MIN - Freaking scary game. It was 15-0 for a very very long time, but Your Capship (that'd be me) called upon Manning to defeat an over-rated MIN team, and it was done thusly.

*Looking Forward: Indy has a banged up line. Harrison isn't the same and Manning is coming off knee surgery (I'll show you my bursa sac, if you show me yours). I like them to stay close in a lot of games, so I'll bet against them if they get favored big. MIN is a waste to me, I'm still picking against them.

2. GB (-165) over DET - I watch all the games at my local sports bar, and this game was out of reach early, bringing a greedy smile to bear (or is it bare?). Then out of the corner of my eye I saw a 21 point lead disappear and I thought my week was lost. Not only did I Have GB to win in this moneyline bet, but they were in my teaser and 2 of my parlays. Thankfully Kitna has blue/green colorblindness and threw 3 picks to give GB the easy W.

*Looking Forward: GB is a monster team, and if Vegas keeps their spreads down, I will keep betting them. Rodgers is becoming a media darling, however, so I am on the lookout for an over-reaction from Vegas and may bet against them if the spreads get rediculous. DET.... no.

3. BUF (+175) over JAX - This was ballsy pick #1. Picking dogs in the moneyline is fun as hell due to the bonus payout (more than 1:1), but there's a reason they pay. To me, this was a great game to risk because of JAX's severely injured O-Line, and BUF's emergence.

*Looking Foward: I like BUF to keep upsetting teams, but now that they are 2-0 watch out for them to be favored when they shouldn't be. JAX is a team to bet against until they prove they can win with their patchwork O-line.

4. PHI (+245) over DAL - Ballsy pick #2. DAL being so heavily favored was a Vegas mistake and over-reaction to DAL's flash. PHI could have easily pulled this out and was paying nearly 3:1. It was a close game, and I have no regrets on this bet.

Weekly Bet = $40
Weekly Profit = $10
Weekly Return = 25%

Total Bet = $40
Total Profit = $10
Total Return = 25%

Week 3 Analysis Coming Soon....

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