Thursday, September 11, 2008


The lines are in, so it's time for my weekly recommendations... I love the beginning of the season, there's so much uknown, leading to lots of opportunities for betting the 'dogs. The other thing to look for is an overreaction to Week 1 results. Let's get this thing started:

... Two main thoughts here: (1) KC's offense actually moved the ball fairly well against NE. Tony Gonzalez remains a beast, as does Larry Johnson. I like Damon Huard more than Brodie Croyle so I think they get an upgrade by injury at the QB position. Oakland's defense was shredded Monday Night, and their offense looked inept. Both are week teams, so it could go either way, but I like the Chiefs at home by 4.

Pick = KC Chiefs
Mad Capping = KC 14 - oak 10
Confidence Level = 60%

... The Bengals scare me a little bit. Their organization is still a mess, but they have the firepower to just explode at any moment. TN beat a very good JAX team last week, while CIN got manhandled by BAL. This is another game that I think the backup might be an improvement at the QB position. I never liked Vince Young, so I'm not worried about him on the bench. The spread is razor-thin, but I like the Titans on the road.

Pick = TN Titans
Mad Capping = tn 19 - CIN 17
Confidence Level = 60%

... Both teams lost week 1 unexpectedly, so how to cap this game? I'm calling this the first over-reaction spread of our list. Indy goes into MIN and creams this over-rated team, and with such a low spread I'm confident Indy covers.

Pick = IND Colts
Mad Capping = ind 40 - MIN 13
Confidence Level = 70%

... I'm definitely down on WAS. I hate organizations that change offensive coordinators every year, especially with unproven young QBs. On the other hand, NO is completely unreliable, Marques Colton is injured, and this is a home 'dog situation.

Pick = NO Saints
Mad Capping = no 23 - WAS 17
Confidence Level = 70%

... Did Vegas SEE how bad DET looked? What the hell is going on here? This seems like such a gimme it makes me nervous, but I'm sticking to my guns for now. Packers by 10.

Pick = GB Packers
Mad Capping = gb 20 - DET10
Confidence Level = 90%

... Ahhhh a game that requires a crystal ball! Both teams were terrible last year, and both teams came up with upsets last week. I have to admit the Bears was more impressive (against the Colts), but CAR winning in SD is also an accomplishment. It's very tempting to go with the Bears and take the points, here... but I'm not gonna do do it. Give me the Panthers at home by 6.

Pick = CAR Panthers
Mad Capping = CAR 16 - chi 10
Confidence Level = 60%

... This reminds me of betting on NE last year. There's no doubt about the outcome, it's just a matter of how badly will they beat their opponent. STL looked awful vs. PHI last week, and I just don't see them keeping up with the Giants either. I'm staying away from this bet due to the large spread, but I'd take the Giants by 14.

Pick = NY Giants
Mad Capping = nyg 24 - STL 10
Confidence Level = 70%

... I like a big upset for Buf this week. JAX has lost 3 starting offensive linemen and 1 of their backups. This means they are going to struggle offensively, and I like BUF's young O to score some points. Even if JAX pulls out a win, no way it's more than a field goal.

Pick = BUF Bills
Mad Capping = buf 21 - JAX 20
Confidence Level = 80%

... This is definitely NOT an over-reaction to last week. ATL looked dangerous last week in crushing DET, and TB lost to a decent NO team. Garcia is injured, and TB still has a 7 point spread. The question is whether ATL's running attack can duplicate last week's performance, and keep the game within 7, or even upset. I think they do.

Pick = ATL Falcons
Mad Capping = TB 21 - atl 16
Confidence Level = 50%

... SEA is a team with injury issues at WR (read: top 4 WRs are injured), and SF is just really bad. I hate this game, I refuse to bet it.

Pick = SEA Seahawks
Mad Capping = SEA 24 - sf 7
Confidence Level = 20%

... So is MIA better than we thought, barely losing to NYJ? Or are the Jets not as good as we think? Either way, is it ever a good idea to bet ARI giving 7 points? Probably not. Also notice that there is zero juice on the ARI bet, so the house only takes money if they can't cover. When the bookies want you to bet one way, you gotta go the other.

Pick = MIA Dolphins
Mad Capping = ARI 16 - mia 13
Confidence Level = 70%

... Seeing this spread makes me feel like a genious. Earler this week I called for betting NE whenever they are dogs, because they are going to win a lot of close games. The line shifted 1/2 point, which is unfortunate, but I still love NE to upset this week.

Pick = NE Patriots
Mad Capping = ne 17 - NYJ 16
Confidence Level = 90%

... So BAL beats Cincy and HOU gets slammed by PIT, and they HOU is the favorite here? Shaub is getting Carr'ed and he's going up againt the always impressive BAL defense this week. On the other hand, BAL's offense has basically nothing. Troy Smith makes his first start, McGahee is hurt and I can't name one WR or TE on their team. Yeah I hate this game. I'm not betting it.

... Should be a great game. Cutler-to-Royale looked like Steve Young and Jerry Rice last week, and SD remains a powerhouse. I'd love to give this to Denver as a home 'dog, but with such a low spread, I'm sticking with the Chargers. I'm guessing it stays relatively close until Tomlinson puts it away late in the 4th quarter.

Pick = SD Chargers
Mad Capping = sd 28 - DEN16
Confidence Level = 80%

... I definitely agree that PIT wins this game big. In fact way bigger than two field goals. I'm calling out the Browns as over-rated early on, PIT smokes them.

Pick = PIT Steelers
Mad Capping = pit 30 - CLE 10
Confidence Level = 90%

... Probably the game fo the week, I'm psyched it's the Monday Nighter. Seven points is a big spread in gambling terms, but really only 1 score in actuality. Both teams looked impressive, but I like the points in a game that could go either way.

Pick = PHI Eagles
Mad Capping = DAL 30 - phi 24
Confidence Level = 50%

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