1.) Expected performance against an average team (based on the excellent work of Football Outsiders) - measure of the number of expected points per game to expect against an average opponent.
2.) Performance volatility - measures actual performance versus expected performance volatility, kicks in starting Week 2.
3.) Game value - measure of how "important" a game is for a particular team in terms of playoff implications.
By fusing these elements, we have a chart that basically highlights the best scoring predictable teams, with bonus going to teams playing in playoff implication games. Obviously in Week 1, playoff implications are a few weeks off, but much closer than you'd think. For instance, the difference between being 3-2 and 2-3 in terms of playoff implications amount to a stagger 100% (from a 33% chance of making playoffs at 2-3 historically to a 66% chance of making the playoffs at 3-2 historically - numbers from Football Outsiders).
So here are the rankings. My bets are in, as well, and I'll list them soon:
|* Excludes BYE week teams!|