Monday, September 24, 2007

Week 3 - Postgame Analaysis

Well I'm fairly satisfied with the results this week. I did win one parlay, my 1, 2, 3 (Dal, GB, Car). This win covered my other bets, plus netted me $20.

The big help the Black Box gave me was solidifying my top 3. We agreed on Dallas and GB, but I wouldn't have had them so high without cross-referencing them with your list. My huge decision this week was to move MIN down out of the top 3, despite the fact that we both had them covering, when I read that T. Jackson was injured. I slid my personal #1 choice into the #3 spot (CAR), even though the box didn't have them covering. So the combination of using my personal calls and crossing them with the box seems to have worked out well.

As for the big losers this week:

(1) MIN doesn't cover vs. KC- I definitely need to do more analysis besides "KC just sucks". This one looked like it was going my way most of the game, but KC pulled it out at the end. I should have backed out of this game when I heard the starting QB was out.

(2) WAS loses to NYG- This seems to be one of those upsets that will happen every week. We both felt WAS would cover the spread, so I think this one I just have to live with.

(3) DET doesn't cover vs PHI- man this game was insane. I think I'd make the same bet next time. Once again we agreed, but just got beat. I don't know who would have seen PHI put up 56 points this week after their first two showings.

(4) STL loses to TB- I think it's time to take TB seriously. This is one of those games I just didn't trust STL's prior poor play or TB's prior good play. TB lost to WAS (a good team), beat NO and STL, so they are gonna be a part of my betting system now, if Vegas still has them as underdogs for a while. As for STL, I think I'm staying away from them. They can win any day of the week, but are just as likely to lay and egg like they have the first 3 weeks.

(5) SEA doesn't cover vs CIN- I am getting the feeling SEA isn't going to blow out many teams this year, so with tight spreads I'm going to pick against them if they are favored, and with them if they are the 'dog. I don't think you had them covering, either.

A couple games pushed this week, which is a little weird. Mia vs NYJ, IND vs HOU come to mind. Both of which we disagreed on.

Anyway, my $55 won me me $75, so there's a %36 return on investment this week. Not great, but with a couple tweeks in my parlay system I think I can up it in the next couple weeks.


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