Friday, September 21, 2007

Week 3 - Postgame Analysis, Piece of Crap?

The results are in: I almost suck, but not quite.

My parlay bet (thank you WAS) went balls up, but I nailed DAL and TEN,
so I was up $10 on my $50 (a 20% return). MIA had the Jets for a minute
there, but the box can't predict Pennington's return - I should figure
out some sort of minimal override for major injuries, because I got hurt
twice on them (see MIN below). Pure box on all 16 games (had I bet them
all) would have broken even. I haven't come close to perfecting a
parlay predictor, I think that's a long ways off. As to the losers:

1. Well, I'm with you on MIN. And I went beyond "KC sucks asshats". I
went pure stats, and MIN still came up short. I way underestimated the
impact of Tavaris - I figure sub a mediocre rookie for a mediocre old
guy and it's relatively the same difference. But KC got the benefit of
it, despite only having LJ manage 1.8 yd per carry. I think this one
was a pure statistical miss - an any given sunday loss.

2. WAS is a real bummer. That was just poor coaching. Chance to tie
the game, 1st and goal, and Clinton Portis is SITTING ON THE SIDELINE.
You run Ladell Betts twice??? What are you thinking???? When the game
is on the line, play the best players. Santana Moss and Campbell have
zero chemistry this year, either, and Randle El is not a sufficient
number 1 to step up. WAS is a better team than this, but they are the
NFC's Jacksonville: always play up or down to the competition. NYG are
just woeful - any AFC team would thomp them. Terrible loss, the stats
will reflect the poor play and playcalling next week.

3. DET. What? I mean... what? You got beat by a team dressed as
professional ice skaters? Worst. Throwbacks. Ever.

4. I agree, TB will need to be taken more seriously. It will be
reflected in the stats. Though, to be fair, STL has been overrated
since day one. Bulger is getting older, and getting sacked 30+ times a
year can't help the decision making. TB is younger (except for Garcia),
and they're playing weaker teams. They may be a playoff sleeper if they
keep this up.

5. This was a good pick to take SEA, I think, and just a close game
that didn't pan (spreadwise, anyway). AFC usually has an edge versus
the NFC, and CIN made a cross country trip, so it was a good to pick
against them. Next week, CIN will be 18 pt dogs versus NE, so it'll be
hard not to take them as such big dogs.

Actually, that brings me to a worrisome point on the system - it clearly
favors the dog. This season, favorites with big spreads seem to be
covering, which is unusual. I'm hoping the stats catch up to the trends
or the teams regress to the mean, but if it keeps up, I could be in for
a hurting season.

I'm adding the 2005 season stats this week, so I'll have another huge
data source to draw from. I'll give you a call around Wed/Thurs to do
another comparison.

I f*ing love football.


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