Saturday, September 29, 2007

Week 4 - Your Box Might Be Right, But I Am Righterer

First, some musings:

I. Seattle scares the snot out of me. We were both nervous last week,
I picked them anyway, and they didn't cover. Once again, I'm nervous
about the SF game, yet here we are both picking Seattle to cover. I
even specifically said the following: "I will pick against Seattle
from now on if they are favored, and with them if they are 'dogs". I
may need a substitute here.

II. The box went 2-1-1 last week
with the top 4, and the WAS game I want to call a fluke. So I think I
need to suck it and promote some of the box's picks into my top area.
Especially considering your advice that I am heavy on the big
favorites. I'm thinking the oakland game, since we both agree on that
one, plus I'm hedged with my moneyline mia pick.

My gut substitutions with favorites did well. NE covered at -17, Car
covered at -4, Indy pushed at -6, NYJ pushed at -3. This tempers my II
above, gotta have faith in real-time information and a reality check
outside the numbers.

IV. Baltimore is a dangerous team to bet
with. I was so sure ARI wouldn't come close last week, but sure enough
Bal had to come from behind and win, but not cover the spread. Here we
go again with my being positive CLE can't get close. I think I need to
demote this game.

V. Buffalo is worse than anyone thinks. And
that's saying a lot because most think they suck. I'm sticking to my
guns here and leaving NYJ over Buf at #2.

1. gb over min -1.5
2. nyj over buf -3.5
3. oak over mia +4 --> promotion to get one of the box's favorites in my top 3, plus add an underdog; see observation II
4. phi over nyg -3 --> promotion - the box loves this pick. see observation II.
bal over cle -4.5 --> demotion based on observation IV above. Plus
the box picks CLE to cover, which it has done successfully two weeks in
a row.
6. ne over cin -7
7. sd over kc -11.5
8. det over chi +3
tb over car +3 --> substitution for sea over sf -2. not only did we
say last week that it was time to take tb seriously, but we get a
chance to pick them as an underdog, and the box loves them too. Plus I
can follow observation I above.


No comments: