Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Week 4 - First Impressions - Hedging Risk Like a Sally

On to the Money Line

The ML is interesting in that, no matter how I narrow the parameters,
the results are mixed. I have good weeks and bad, but I average 58%
over the last two seasons if I pick teams that are predicted to win that
are playing at home. If I do a pure "who will win" over the entire
league, I'm at 55%. Mediocre, but still profitable. When I saw this, I
needed to know which picks were historically stronger picks. This is
where it gets interesting.

For some reason, picks 10-16 (depending on Bye weeks) average a whopping
67%. Picks 12-16 are at 70%, and picks 15-16 are at a ridiculous 75%
correct. The most convicted picks are not so good. Which makes me
think the way I am measuring conviction is wrong, but I'll change that
up later. For now, here are the list of picks:

1. NYJ
2. SEA
3. GB
4. KC
5. HOU
6. BAL
7. MIA
8. PHI
9. IND
10. TB
11. DET
12. PIT
13. NE
14. DAL

Already, I can see it makes sense to combine this with spreads and limit
my risk. GB is the only one in my top 5, but if I combine some of the
other spreads, I can take NYJ to win and BUF to cover, NE to win and CIN
to cover... etc.


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