Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Week 4 - The Capper Commentary - Part Un

Comments on the spread box...

1. PHI -3 @ NYG - This is a risky game to me (see above), but i have no problem with your pick.

2. MIN +1.5 @ GB - I have to disagree with you here... this is my #1 pick of the week. Did you see MIN suck it last week vs KC? Oh man it was sad. Kelly Holcomb just got to town like 15 days ago, and he isn't that good to start off with. Huard to Bowe (who? yeah, exactly) looked like montana to rice out there. Contract that with GBs solid win vs SD last week and few injuries, and only giving 1.5 points... i think this is a gimme so much i already locked in the pick in fear that the spread might change as the week goes on.

3. SEA -2 @ SF - Another risky game i think. I like SEA here, too. But probably not as a #3.

4. DET +3 v CHI - This one kinda scares me too... at first i thought det based on the records, then thought chi, since det hasn't beaten a good team yet, plus rex is benched. then i remembered that lance briggs, mike brown and a couple other defensive starters are injured. so maybe i go back to detroit... i dunno, man, so i'll rely on the box. but again, not this high.

5. ARI +6 v PIT - This is deja vu - very similar to last week's dilemma on how to handle ARI vs BAL. Last week ARI covered, despite what i thought, so i am tempted to bet with the box this week, even though my gut told me go with PIT, who have the #2 defense, and are scoring on the ground and in the air. Not sure what to do here.

6. CIN +7.5 v NE - I gotta tell you, I think NE is gonna cover this spread. howver, I love the idea of picking with you here, and then picking NE to win the moneyline. Damn your genius ideas. This was my #4 pick, that's how much i like NE to cover.... damn damn damn.

7. STL +11.5 @ DAL- oh these big spreads drive me crazy. steven jackson is out, bulger is in but playing with 2 broken ribs, 2 of their starting OL are out, and they have been pounded by every team they've played. Yet you want to pick them to cover against DAL, who is just blowing people out? at Dallas? Me and the spread box are clearly having issues this week.

8. ATL +2.5 v HOU- another disagreement. HOU is playing great ball, and even without A. Johnson, they got within a touchdown of Indy. The spread is so small I think I go with HOU here, unless you think ATL is going to upset?

9. CLE +4.5 v BAL - I am 100% against you here. This is my #2 pick, and no way CLE upsets BAL like it did to CIN. CIN had no defense. Terell Suggs and Bart Scott are going to get 4 combined sacks, Derek Anderson throws 3 picks.

10. OAK +4 @ MIA- hey! we agree! i don't like mia, and oakland seems to be playing tough. I like the 4 points, too.

11. BUF +3.5 v NYJ - Dammit man, this is my #3. How is it possible that we disagree completely on my top 4? Buffalo just lost losman, and is forced to start their rookie, plus their hotshot rookie linebacker paul polyzcudkslksdfmsky. NYJ are better than their record. Playoff team last year and losses to NE and BAL are not something to get upset about.

12. DEN +9.5 @ IND - again, i hate these big spreads. my gut says indy covers, but i'll follow you on this one.

13. SD -11.5 v KC- amazing. the box picked a huge favorite. and i agree. SD explodes this week after being embarrassed two weeks in a row.

14. TB OFF @ CAR - I like TB to win, i'm very curious what the spread is here. If CAR is favored this could become a big pick.


No comments: