Friday, September 21, 2007

Week 3 - The Box and the "9 Team Parlay"

Ok, so first things first: I opened my **** account, paid my
$50, and am running my money this week on my top 4. My top 4 on the box
over the last 2 years have averaged between 66-70% winning vs the
spread, the best of all my picks. So I just bet the spreads on my top 4
(DAL, WAS, MIA, and TEN), and I did a $5 parlay on my top three.

That was before I did a parlay study tonight. I probably should have
done the study first.

Last year, the system picked over 70% correct for my number one and two
ranked choice. Number three was a 64% win rate. After that, it got
ugly. For whatever reason, picks 4-7 are TERRIBLE. My fifth rank pick
rocked last year with a 23% win rate. I have to figure out why, suffice
to say it was ugly. Then, arbitrarily it seems, my 11th and 13th ranked
picks won over 70% as well. So next parlay I do will be the 1, 2, 11,
and 13 (this week, it would have been DAL, WAS, PIT, and CLE).

In terms of your picks, I can't fault you for some of your switches. I
agree with you on CAR, and I think you may be right on HOU too, despite
the home dog rule. Based on the 9 you chose, the system says the top 3
parlays are:

1. DAL - WAS - DET (1, 2, 11)
2. DAL - MIN - GB (1, 6, 7)
3. WAS - GB - DET (2, 7, 11)
4. SEA - STL - WAS (12, 14, 2)
5. This one can be a medley of your favorites.

That's based on the 9 you chose. This way, you have a 1or 2 in each
(high percentage), a middle, and a lower percentage. Spread your risk
out I say.

That's what I would suggest. Or that's what the system suggests. Or
that's what the overlords that control my brain suggest.

Hmmm... indeed.


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