I thought about moneyline, thinking it would be much easier to nail with
the system. So in one of my furious idea sketches, I removed the spread
equations and picked just winners and losers: since the 2006 season, I
hit on 44% of the time. Terrible. It at least makes me feel good about
my spread analysis, it must be adding value since I can't pick a winner
at all. I'd do better if I flipped a fucking coin!
Maybe if I limit it to just underdogs... or just favorites... or just
home or away teams... maybe I'd get better results. I'll try it, but it
looks pretty balls.