Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Week 4 - Box's First Impressions - Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid.

Trust me, you won't like the box this week. I don't like the box this
week, either. So much so that I'm running TWO boxes concurrently right
now to see which one performs better. I like the methods of my newer
system (the thinking makes more sense), but I like the picks of the
original system (you'll see what I mean). I also added a Money Line
component, which is sweet - I might start picking the top 4 spreads and
their coinciding Money Lines to either a.) double up, or b.) offset any
losses. I'll give you some ML picks after the spreads.

Box 1 (the new and improved) says (in order of conviction):
1. PHI -3 @ NYG
2. MIN +1.5 @ GB
3. SEA -2 @ SF
4. DET +3 v CHI
5. ARI +6 v PIT
6. CIN +7.5 v NE
7. STL +11.5 @ DAL
8. ATL +2.5 v HOU
9. CLE +4.5 v BAL
10. OAK +4 @ MIA
11. BUF +3.5 v NYJ
12. DEN +9.5 @ IND
13. SD -11.5 v KC
14. TB OFF @ CAR

Now, before I start in with the "what the hell???" on some of these
picks, there are some good explanations. PHI is the lock of the week by
the system, though it will be closer than the system thinks. MIN is a
close second, and I think there's a good reason GB isn't a lock. First,
historically, Favre sucks balls at MIN. Second, MIN's D is much better
(surprisingly) than SD, and MIN running game has been much better. This
game will be a pretty grueling game I think. The system predicts GB
winning by 1 on the ML side, so cross my fingers the stats know what
they're talking about.

The 3rd pick makes me more nervous than the first two. SEA
traditionally has a hard time in SF, and their games are always very
very close. I'm comforted by how badly Alex Smith is playing, but it'll
be a game of defense I think. And I like SF's D better. Especially at
home. Either way, I wouldn't be surprised to lose this bet.

Now we get to crazy. DET? The system, in fact, says that DET should be
FAVORED by 3, not getting 3. That seems to be ridiculous. I think
Griese will be better than Grossman for sure, but I just can't imagine
DET able to stop a baby in a stroller after last weeks blowout. The ARI
pick is OK by me, I have few convictions either way, though PIT is
playing amazing football, tough not to see it being a 7 point game. CIN
is your classic "Home Dog" pick. I'm just hoping it's a garbage TD that
covers for CIN. CIN is the pick on both systems, so it's a pretty
strong pick.

STL, another dog pick, mostly because the spread is high. I can't
imagine DAL not winning by at least 10, so another cross my fingers.
The rest of the picks are all totally conceivable, despite picking SD.
The SD pick is a mean regression pick more than the system thinking SD
will cover - in fact, the system predicts KC WINNING by 1, but SD has
fallen so far below it's range, the system is trained to assume they can
get back into their range until the range changes.


No comments: