(1) NYJ vs MIA (-3): Small spread, so I can see going either way, but I just have zero faith in.
(2) PIT vs SF (-9): My problem here is that PIT hasn't beaten anyone of value yet, so a 9 point spread is a reach IMO.
(3) ARI vs BAL (+8): You may be right about this one. Definitely one I'm staying away from.
(4) CLE vs OAK (+3): BEWARE! the brownies will not score enough points against the raiders. OAK has a killer D, and they are actually scoring points this year on offense. I have to stick with my pick here.
(5) ATL vs (+4): Man I have to question the Box on this one. Carolina is only giving four points against , a team with serious quarterback issues, off-field controversy, and a new coach. CAR is a legit NFC threat, with running, QB, defense and Steve Smith.
(6) TN vs NO (+4): You've made excellent points here. I'm staying clear of this game too.
(7) HOU vs IND (+6.5): I do like the home 'dog theory, I'm gonna use that from now on. However, Houston has been able to score mainly bcause of A. Johnson. Trust me, he's on my fantasy team and he's been unstoppable. He is injured, and now there's no way Indy doesn't thump them. Does the Box take injuries into account?
(8) BUF vs NE (+17): Do you really think the bills get within 2 touchdowns? I see what you are saying about betting against the big spreads, but i can see this one being 30-6. I guess that means I'll stay away.