Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Week 4 - Brewing New Parlay Systems

ok, so i had to babysit these surveyors at one of our jobsites today... so basically i sat in my car all day and brainstormed different parlay systems.... fantastic use of company time.

so last week i used my top 9 and put together 4 3-team parlays in descending confidence, plus a 6 team parlay using my top 6:

(a) [1-3] [1,4,5] [2,6,7] [3,8,9], [1-6]

Then i thought.. why not make 1/2 bets (in mycase $5 instead of $10), and make twice as many bets - just rearranging the order so that if my combinations don't work, i'll have another whole set that could work out. basically still use the parlays above, plus:

(b) [1,2,4] [1,6,8] [2,4,9] [3,5,7], [4-9]

i think statistics go against me with this theory, though. I now need to win twice as many parlays to meet the same payoff, plus the second set of parlays is less likely to occur (according to my preference list). so on second thought i think this is not a good idea. i'm curious on your thoughts, though.

Another idea i had was to use the original set, only instead of my 6-team parlay, use two 6-team parlays with half bets. these are the long shots anyway, so why not mix up the team combinations and have two shots at the big payoff? maybe something like this:

(c) [1-6]; [4-9] or [1-3,7-9] or [my six favorite 'gut feeling picks']

Lastly i thought about reducing the pool of teams i'm betting on from 9 to 6. This way i'm only dealing with my 6 favorites:

(d) [1-3] [1,4,5] [2,3,6] [4,5,6] [1-6]

This one has some promise, i think. This yields the same results as (a) if one of my top 3 loses. but it costs me two parlays instead of one parlay if 4-6 lose. So on the one hand, i'm not risking any parlays with 7-9 picks, but if 4-6 lose, each one costs me two parlays. and there are deadly combos that kill the whole thing such as 2,5 losing or 1,4 losing.... man the more i think about this the more i dislike it.... anyway...

On to moneyline betting....
I think i love this. I am badass at predicting straight up winners. last week i was 11-5, and nailed 8 out of my top 9. If the payouts are similar to point spread parlays, i think i'm gonna try it out this week. Interesting that the box is good at picking spreads, and i am better at picking straight-up winners.... there has to be a way to use this to our advantage...


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