Thursday, September 20, 2007

Week 3 - Box's First Impressions - Why the Mad Capper is Wrong

i'm using spreads from a few days ago, but you'll get the gist. and the winners are:

hou +6 v indy
general rule #1 of the system (or what it seems to prefer) - always take the home dog.

gb +4.5 v sd
see general rule #1. i agree with you, i think gb can put up some pts in this game. the wild card will be the D - can they contain LT, or more importantly, gates.

min +2.5 v kc
i agree with you here, too, and so does the system. it's also an exception to rule #1, but kc is just that bad. also, the system adjusts for afc's clear advantage over nfc teams in the last 5 years, and STILL kc can't make the cut.

det +6.5 v phi
another agreement, taking the heavy dog here. usually spreads this big, a good bet to take the dog, but with philly's performance, this should be a 4 or 5 spread, not 6+. they have no wrs!

buf +14.5 v ne
yes, you HAVE to pick against it. 15+ point spreads??? ri-cock-ulous. and buf is the WORST of the teams they faced. but if the system says it, i do it.

stl +3.5 v tb
the system agrees - st louis always loses to sf (or plays close), and tb is more a fluke it would seem. but it's still early, this could prove to be a bad pick.

mia +3 v nyj
this is when the system and i have problems. i'm giving up a win here, but i have to go with the system. maybe... ted ginn... will have 3 returns for tds? maybe?

pit -8.5 v sf
the system LOVES pit. the top three teams according to it are NE, PIT, and DAL (suprisingly). this is the second week in a row it said to take pit giving big points. it didn't let me down last week, i'll go with it.

ari +8 v bal
arizona is a better team than they play, and the system seems to realize that. and bal isn't as good as they seem, especially with boller in there. he did look good, but don't be fooled - he's balls.

sea -3.5 v cin
full agreement. i think i just saw neen score a touchdown against the bengals...

cle +3 v oak
here's another "early season victim" i think. the stats favor cleveland slightly, mostly due to last week's throttling against a previously well ranked team. the odds suggest on a neutral field, it'd be a virtual pick 'em. the system pick cle.

atl +4 v car
i think car will win, but i like the home dog again. again, could be an early season disaster, but we shall see.

dal +3 v chi
chicago is not that good. dallas is good. dal should win this game.

ten +4.5 no
i think (and the system thinks) no is not that good. tn has a great defense this year, and they seem to be clicking - they really should have won last week. this will be close either way, i'm guessing a 3 point game. the system is guessing ten should be favored by 6. the system is silly.

so far, my top 3 picks every week are winning almost 70%. booyah.


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