It's That Time of Year...

I feel like the guy in that Office Max commercial, dancing through the aisles as happily buying "going back to school" gear.

Football season fast approaches, and the box and I have spent some very quality time together. Hot hot quality time. I thought I'd get a jump start, though I won't be ready for much commentary until closer to prime time in late August. Here are some changes to expect:

1.) No more "pure" financial measures.

The BOX is now BOX 3.0, a total upgraded version. I am currently starting a green hedge fund (see here for the gist, and here for more details) with a model I've worked on for 2 years, and I have a bunch of new tricks up my sleeves. I may revisit the Financials (alpha, beta, sharpe ratio) later this summer, but for now, they are a thing of the past. They have been replaced by new metrics, most importantly: Game Value, Performance Volatility, and Expected Performance. I'm combining a lot of the hedge fund volatility metrics and applying them here to performance (ie, point performance, performance vs. the spread, statistical field performance, performance against an average, etc.). Let's just say the database got much thicker.

Game Value - the statistically based game value based team performance and record.

Performance Volatility - the volatility of a teams week to week performance statistically on multiple levels.

Expected Performance - a sort of futures derivative for football performance, looks at a combination of Vegas and statistical expected performance.

I'll go over it all in more detail as the season gets closer, suffice to say, I'm pretty stoked.

2.) I cracked the Holy Grail: 60% historical win rate.

It's legitimate. Whether it will hold up is another question, but back to back years of 60% performance using the new metrics. You might be asking, "How did you accomplish such a feat Mr. Genius?" It's a good question, but a key component was something obvious that I overlooked last season. I spent a good deal of time reviewing how many games to bet to maximize my win percentage, but I ignored the simple fact: all weeks are not created equal. GVal (Game Value) assigns realistic, statistically based value to upcoming games, similarly to Mark Myers' TIMP system but using a totally different data set. In fact, I based values on over 15 years of data (it's been a busy summer) to come up with real game values that are organic. I initially resisted what GVal seemed to suggest; don't bet on games that don't have value, even if it means betting on NO GAMES in a particular week! While this isn't much fun, espeically if it's more than one week of no betting in spread games in a row, it's definitely profitable. Limiting myself to the highest probability games as values shift means some weeks I could make 16 bets, others 2 bets, but only bets that have real value.

I haven't expanded the notion to moneyline, teasers, and parlays yet, but I still have many modifications to go before the season starts.

3.) No more wondering how much to bet.

While I still haven't devised a way to have the BOX suggest a minimum bet, I have figured out how to enter a minimum (ie, $5 at my online "broker"), and the BOX does the rest. I plan on adding the "Doubler" again in a few test cases, but the allocations now act more like stock portfolios than football betting. Box 2.0 devised allocations as well, but needed multiple variables each week, like how much to bet and how much the minimum is every week. Now, the BOX says "Bet this much assuming a minimum of X".

4.) The spread/juice stock ticker.

One of the last things Vegas wants, in sharp contrast to equity markets, is real time data. Betting arbitrage would be a disaster. Imagine a system where Vegas sets the line of NE v. KC at NE -10, -125. Money comes pouring in for NE - bettors think the spread is too low, for whatever reason. Suddenly, in order to compensate for this, Vegas needs to a.) raise the spread, b.) raise the vig, or c.) both so they don't end up on the tremendous losing end of this game. So within a day, the new line is NE -15.5, -115. Imagine if, along the way, you had a ticker giving you the line. As you saw the line pump up, you realized - hey, I should get in on the ground floor here - and you place a bet at NE -12, -120. When the line jumps above 14, you think maybe KC has a chance here, and because it's happening in real time, you can lock in a bet at KC +14.5, +110, hedging yourself on the upside. But real time markets mean real time money and real time hedging, all of which are bad for Vegas.

So in lieu of Vegas, the BOX now takes multiple ticks in the "market". I haven't tested this yet, as I lack the back data (it's impossible to get in usable form), it's a step forward in actual betting arbitrage. So watch for this later this season, it could prove awesome.

So that's the scoop. I don't imagine I'll be posting much again until preseason in mid/late August, but it's fast approaching! Get psyched!

Week 19 - Matty Lives!

Whew!

Matty boy! I thought you might have hit a snow bank or something, I haven't heard from you since before the holidays....

Anyway, I am most definitely pissed I didn't actually post my bets for the wild card weekend, I intended to spend my last $10 all in on a 4-team parlay which went 3-0-1 and would have paid off $60. Sadly I remain with only $10, and figure I should repeat the process this week. The spreads are huge so it's a tough call. But right now I like all the dogs to cover, possibly with the exception of GB and NE, who will probably destroy SEA and JAX, respectively.

It's been an awesome year 1 for us here at Mental Handicap, and this post-season and offseason should be fun. My goal is to research my win % on the various styles of betting, perfect the Wave Theory and determine the optimum betting system and stick with it in year 2. In addition, Matty and I will have to figure out a way to rank the teams in the offseason to get the 2008 season ready to go in Week 1. I have a feeling the box will struggle in the beginning so look for The Mad Capper to jump out to an early lead.

Happy New Year everyone!

End of Season Review

So it's been a while, and after placing some ludicrous but fun bets on Week 17 (and getting my ass handed to me in the process), I've abstained from all post season betting. Why? Because a.) I have zero historical data on which to base my guesses, and b.) anything can happen. I can pretty much guess that the Box would pick almost every underdog, too, but I still have no way to no. I have created no postseason module. That may be something to start for next season.

Overall, I would have to say it was a successful trial year. I lost a marginal amount of cash in what amounted to an oddly disproportionate favorite-covering year, so assuming over time things revert to the mean (where underdogs have a very slight advantage), I feel like I'm on the right track. The Box is now able to pick based on "cost per bet", a feature added very late in the season and perfected in Week 15 or 16, so my expectations will be high next year for some serious cash flow.

I will post results here in the morning, but for now, I wanted to bid a farewell to anyone who read this regularly - I assume me and the Capper, and maybe occasionally my wife - and I look forward to next season. Keep us on the RSS feeds, we may post a bit over the post season and off season just as updates happen and the betting styles are honed. With a few seasons data under my belt, it will be easier to run back tests and improve my stats hopefully. So check back for a full end of season review soon, for now, ta ta!

Week 18 - Playoffs Change the Gambling Game

Well I'm back, the holidays took week 17 away from me, but it's just in time for playoffs...

So what to make of this?

There are only 4 games per week in the wild card and divisional rounds, then 2 games in the conference finals, and finally the superbowl... All season long we've been picking our favorite games, but now our choices dwindle from 16 games down to 4, and in theory, these games should be harder to call. Let's take a look at the wild card round:

jax -2 at PIT
SEA -4 vs was
TB -2.5 vs nyg
SD -9 vs ten

PIT is a home 'dog playing a team that kicked their butts already this year before PIT lost Willie Parker. I agre with Vegas here, and think JAX wins this game. Same goes for SD vs TEN, but in this game the spread is a whopping 9 points. Will TEN get beat that badly?

The SEA and TB games are more toss-ups, with the 'dogs in both games playing their best football recently, while the favorites are home and kind of eased into the playoffs. My gut says WAS finally hits the wall and loses the game and the spread to SEA , and TB pulls out a 1 or 2 point win, making me pick the Giants plus points.

What says the box?

Week 17 - The Gambling Power Rankings

These rankings match a team's performance to their statistically expected performance. They weight Sharpe and Alpha to come up with these power rankings:

The Gamblers'
Power Rankings
1	NE
2	IND
3	DAL
4	SD
5	PIT
6	NO	▲1
7	SEA	▲1
8	CHI	▼2
9	JAC
10	NYG
11	GB	▲2
12	PHI
13	CIN	▼2
14	DEN
15	TEN
16	ARI	▲3
17	MIN
18	DET	▲2
19	WAS	▼3
20	TB	▲4
21	HOU	▲2
22	CAR	▼4
23	STL	▼1
24	BAL	▼3
25	CLE
26	SF
27	BUF	▲1
28	OAK	▼1
29	NYJ
30	KC
31	ATL
32	MIA

Here is the financial breakdown:

	Sharpe	Alpha	Beta
Team	Rank	Rank	Rank
ARI	16	14	9
ATL	31	27	20
BAL	24	21	7
BUF	28	25	32
CAR	18	30	12
CHI	8	7	1
CIN	14	9	11
CLE	26	15	24
DAL	3	3	6
DEN	13	23	29
DET	19	19	27
GB	11	10	17
HOU	22	18	22
IND	2	4	14
JAC	9	6	31
KC	30	28	4
MIA	32	29	2
MIN	20	16	19
NE	1	1	3
NO	7	5	15
NYG	10	11	18
NYJ	29	24	10
OAK	27	32	26
PHI	12	12	8
PIT	4	8	21
SD	5	2	16
SEA	6	13	30
SF	25	31	13
STL	23	22	25
TB	17	26	28
TEN	15	17	5
WAS	21	20	23

If you want to know how a specific game breaks down, email me at matt dot moscardi at gmail dot com. Here's a sample of this week's marquee games, the Giants/NE and Dallas/Was (the favorite is the bottom team):

Sharpe + Alpha		Financial Pick
NYG	7.34%	Diff:	7.89%
NE	15.22%	Adv:	NE

Sharpe + Alpha		Financial Pick
DAL	12.04%	Diff:	-6.83%
WAS	5.20%	Adv:	DAL

Now, I take issue with my own power rankings. There is no way San Diego is a better or more consistent team than Jacksonville this year, in my opinion. Nor do I agree that a scrappy Buffalo team and a good-but-not-great Cleveland team are 27th and 25th respectively. But if I go over the numbers, it would make sense based on the way I've figured these statistics.

They way they calculate now, it's showing the ranking as teams that consistently crush the spread down to teams that consistently get crushed. Despite Buffalo being 9-6 ATS this year, when they lose, they lose big. Take the 56-10 drubbing they took against New England earlier this year. Combine that with a few more big losses to the Steelers, NE earlier in the season, and Jacksonville, and no matter how much they eek by the rest of the season, their consistency is pure shite.

Cleveland, on the other hand, is a bit of an odd duck. They are helped by Alpha, ranking in the top half of the league, but it's still not enough to prop them up in terms of Sharpe. My problem is I can't quite explain why yet. They had a fairly bumpy start with that ridiculous loss to Pittsburgh in week 1, and a helluva win in week 4 against the Ravens, but other than those two blips, they have been a middling team in terms of spread performances. They win more than they lose, but they never win big. So why the crummy Sharpe?

Well, my only explanation is in how they perform against how the are supposed to perform as predicted by the statistics at Football Outsiders and the Box. Cleveland has both fallen short of expectations and outplayed themselves. To the point where the Box basically says, "screw you guys" and throws them deep into the "middle basement" reserved for only the most schizophrenic of teams. Cleveland, Detroit, Washington, Houston, Denver, Tennessee... who are you guys really?

I don't know and I don't care, as long as I make the big bucks. Check back again tomorrow, because the best bets are in, and this week I got ridiculous and had fun. Why not? It's the last week of the season!!

Week 17 - Moneyline Seems to Be Money

I bet some uncharacteristic moneyline bets last week - only teams that paid out positive dollars. Did it work? Well, my $5 bet on Chicago to upset Green Bay paid me a solid $15 or so, negating any other moneyline losses I took. Worth it?

I'm not sure.

This week, the picks are in, and I may do some of the same maneuvering:

THE PICKS

* considers lay in pick order

1. CHI +130 v. NO @Home

2. TB +145 v. CAR @Home

3. SEA +145 v. ATL Away

4. CIN -145 v. MIA @Home

5. IND +280 v. TEN @Home

6. DEN +190 v. MIN @Home

7. PIT -200 v. BAL @Home

8. GB -210 v. DET Away

9. JAC +280 v. HOU Away

10. NYJ -270 v. KC Away

11. SD -370 v. OAK @Home

12. PHI -340 v. BUF Away

13. DAL +430 v. WAS Away

14. ARI -260 v. STL Away

My top 3 picks are all in the money picks. I like betting the upset, but this week is pretty unpredictable. I'm not sure what I'm doing yet, but I do know I'm not risking big dollars in the last week - I'll try to keep it a respectable showing and not lose big on a choppy week 17.

Week 17 - Wacky Week 17 Best Bets

Vegas has gone nuts. Abso-frikkin-nuts. Indy +6.5 at home against Tennessee? Just because the Titans need the win? Really? I think Tom Moore could suit up and receive passes from Sorgi and they could STILL beat the Titans this week. Don't forget, while the marquee players only play for a quarter or two, the real money players on the front lines almost never sit. That means even when they run with Kenton Keith, Indy will be running behind one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, no matter what Albert Haynesworth is doing.

Jacksonville +6? Seattle +2.5? And, on the flip side, Cleveland -9???? Giving nine points? Since Week 8, all but one of their games have been settled by less than 9. The one "blowout" win? They beat Houston by 10 in week 12. How likely is it that they win by 9 at this point? I would say pretty freaking unlikely. And so would the box.

Here are the early picks:

THE PICKS	Over /
* considers lay in pick order	Under
1. TB +2.5 v. CAR @Home	40.5
2. SEA +2.5 v. ATL Away	40.5
3. CIN -2.5 v. MIA Away	38.5
4. GB -3.5 v. DET @Home	40.5
5. OAK +8 v. SD @Home	41.5
6. PIT +3.5 v. BAL Away	40.0
7. JAC +6 v. HOU Away - Bet Soon	42.5
8. SF +9 v. CLE Away - Bet Soon	40.5
9. NO -2 v. CHI Away	43.0
10. IND +6.5 v. TEN @Home	43.5
11. DEN +3 v. MIN @Home - Bet Soon	42.0
12. NYG +14 v. NE @Home - Bet Soon	45.0
13. BUF +7.5 v. PHI Away	43.5
14. DAL +9 v. WAS Away - Bet Soon	43.0
15. STL +6 v. ARI Away - Bet Soon	37.5
16. KC +6 v. NYJ Away - Bet Soon	39.0

I like that one-two punch in Seattle and TB - TB coming off an embarrassing loss (that won me some $s last week) and Seattle coming off an even more embarrassing loss, despite not needing the W at all.

I know the Colts and Cowboys are lower conviction picks, but I can't help be drawn to those games that clearly feel like they were handicapped to reflect public sentiment more than team performance. Week 17 is an excellent week for arbitrage I think, as the "who will play" frenzy that factors into the spreads is often overwrought. In fact, if the Box were Vegas and ignored the statistics, here's how it would have handicapped this week:

	Vegas	Vegas
Fav	Guess	Actual	Dog
NE	-14	-14	NYG
PHI	-3.5	-7.5	BUF
GB	-5	-3.5	DET
NO	-4	-2	CHI
HOU	3	-6	JAC
CAR	4	-2.5	TB
CLE	-13	-9	SF
CIN	-6.5	-2.5	MIA
ATL	9.5	-2.5	SEA
WAS	9.5	-9	DAL
PIT	-8	3.5	BAL
ARI	-7	-6	STL
SD	-7	-8	OAK
MIN	-4	-3	DEN
NYJ	-3	-6	KC
TEN	10	-6.5	IND

There are some giant shifts there - owing entirely to public sentiment. If the spread was like the stock market, this is a nice bear market chance to make some money on quality teams that are undervalued because of mob mentality.