Week 3 2009 - Picks of the Week

So I've had a chance to look at the lines, and here's the best of the bunch:

1. Den (-1.5) @ OAK: JaMarcus is still trying to complete his tenth pass in his career, but Vegas still gives no credit to Denver, huh? I know everyone thinks Denver's 2-0 record is a mirage because of that flukey win over CIN... but wait! CIN went out and upset GB last week... Denver picked on CLE last week like everyone else is going to do. My point? OAK no bueno, DEN gonna win.

2. NO (-6) @ BUF: Everyone agrees NO is the new Greatest Show on Turf right? And hopefully we all remember how to beat these 'Shows'.... Anyone? Beuhler? Yeah, by slowing the game down on offense and waiting for turnovers on defense. So... the new Bills... the high-scoring no-huddle Bills.... their gonna give Brees a lot of time of possession, and no way Edwards keeps up with him.

3. Chi (-2) @ SEA: How is CHI only giving two points against the Seahawks without Hasselbeck? Cutler looked pretty good to me last week, and Matt Forte hasnt' been unleashed yet. This one's a candidate for lock of the week.

4. HOU (-3.5) vs. Jax: Love this game, too. Does JAX actually have wide receivers? I'm not really sure... HOU on the other hand can and will explode on offense, and their D is underrated. This one could be a blowout.

Let's make some money.

Edit: Matty, I noticed I'm picking 100% against the box this week. En Garde.

Week 1, 2, 3 2009 - Capper Back in Action

Sorry for the delay, I am fooling around with an "all-in" policy I started with Week 1 when I realized I still had $28 in the bank left over from last season's debacle.

Week 1 Results - Looked at the games and I couldn't believe I saw:

MIN(-4) vs CLE

Quinn vs Anderson, Kellen's gone, new Head Coach... CLE is gonna lose a lot. MIN is a popular NFC Superbowl pick, so this one was a lock to me. I went all-in, half my bank to the moneyline, half to the spread bet.

BINGO. Paid out $20, a nice 70% return.

Week 2 didn't have any absolutes in it for me, so I stayed away. Good thing, too. Lots of upsets.

Week 3 is here and I'm looking for my 'lock'. I'll get back to you

Week 03: Best Bets

Spread:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %
1	SEA	v. CHI	+2	26%
2	JAC	@ HOU	+3.5	11%
3	BUF	v. NO	+6	9%
4	STL	v. GB	+6.5	9%
5	IND	@ ARI	+2.5	9%
6	MIN	v. SF	-6.5	8%
7	TB	v. NYG	+6.5	8%
8	DET	v. WAS	+6.5	8%
9	CAR	@ DAL	+8.5	6%
10	CLE	@ BAL	+13	5%
11	SD	v. MIA	-5.5
12	NE	v. ATL	-4
13	PIT	@ CIN	-4
14	OAK	v. DEN	+1.5
15	TEN	@ NYJ	+3

Moneyline:

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %
1	IND	@ ARI	+125	46%
2	JAC	@ HOU	+165	31%
3	TEN	@ NYJ	+130	20%
4	SEA	v. CHI	+110	2%
5	BAL	v. CLE	-700
6	MIN	v. SF	-280
7	SD	v. MIA	-270
8	NYG	@ TB	-290
9	NO	@ BUF	-270
10	WAS	@ DET	-270
11	NE	v. ATL	-210
12	DAL	v. CAR	-380
13	PIT	@ CIN	-200
14	GB	@ STL	-275

Week 03: Ranks and Results

Here they are. Week 3 is the first week of MASSIVE movement - all the standard deviation measures, performance volatility, and the newest piece in my repertoire, bias - hit this week since I have a few data points. So major moves. Things to remember - this is a measure of how good a team combined with how consistent a team plays against their expectations. Hence NE at the bottom and WAS towards the top.

Anyway, enough said, here's some ranks. Best bets to come.

Power Ranks		▲▼	%FromTop	W/L/T	ATS
1	NYG	▲11	0%	2 - 0 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
2	MIN	▲3	33%	2 - 0 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
3	DAL	▲10	40%	1 - 1 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
4	IND	▼2	51%	2 - 0 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
5	PIT	▼1	56%	1 - 1 - 0	0 - 2 - 0
6	WAS	▲13	57%	1 - 1 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
7	JAC	▼1	58%	0 - 2 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
8	BAL	▼1	58%	2 - 0 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
9	NO	▲5	58%	2 - 0 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
10	SEA	▼2	59%	1 - 1 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
11	SD	▼10	60%	1 - 1 - 0	0 - 2 - 0
12	CLE	▲12	63%	0 - 2 - 0	0 - 2 - 0
13	ATL	▲8	63%	2 - 0 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
14	STL	▲2	63%	0 - 2 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
15	CHI	▼6	63%	1 - 1 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
16	DET	▲13	64%	0 - 2 - 0	0 - 2 - 0
17	GB	▼2	64%	1 - 1 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
18	CIN	▼1	64%	1 - 1 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
19	CAR	▲3	65%	0 - 2 - 0	0 - 2 - 0
20	TB	▲7	65%	0 - 2 - 0	0 - 2 - 0
21	NYJ	▲2	65%	2 - 0 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
22	DEN	▲9	66%	2 - 0 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
23	ARI	▲5	66%	1 - 1 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
24	OAK	▼4	66%	1 - 1 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
25	TEN	▼15	66%	0 - 2 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
26	SF	▲4	67%	2 - 0 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
27	MIA	▼2	68%	0 - 2 - 0	0 - 2 - 0
28	NE	▼25	69%	1 - 1 - 0	0 - 2 - 0
29	HOU	▼3	71%	1 - 1 - 0	1 - 1 - 0
30	PHI	▼19	73%	OFF	OFF
31	BUF	▲1	75%	1 - 1 - 0	2 - 0 - 0
32	KC	▼14	75%	OFF	OFF

GAME IMPORTANCE

Rank	GV	Playoff%
1	CHI v. SEA	31.10%
2	PIT v. CIN	31.10%
3	NE v. ATL	28.40%
4	NO v. BUF	28.40%
5	DEN v. OAK	28.40%
6	ARI v. IND	28.40%
7	MIN v. SF	25.70%
8	HOU v. JAC	25.15%
9	WAS v. DET	25.15%
10	GB v. STL	25.15%
11	SD v. MIA	25.15%
12	DAL v. CAR	25.15%
13	NYJ v. TEN	22.45%
14	BAL v. CLE	22.45%
15	NYG v. TB	22.45%

Week 02: I Couldn't Help Myself

I ended up betting on a few moneylines to test out the system. So far? Not so stellar, but could be worse. Here are the results:

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	TB	@ BUF	+170	35%	$8.49	L	$0.00
2	CLE	@ DEN	+160	27%	$7.69	L	$0.00
3	NYG	@ DAL	+130	20%	$7.00	W	$16.11
4	STL	@ WAS	+400	18%	$6.82	L	$0.00
5	DET	v. MIN	+400			L
6	MIA	v. IND	+155			L
7	NYJ	v. NE	+165			W
8	HOU	@ TEN	+240			W
9	ARI	@ JAC	+145			W
10	BAL	@ SD	+135			W
11	OAK	@ KC	+140			W
12	CIN	@ GB	+360			W
13	PIT	@ CHI	-145			L
14	CAR	@ ATL	+220			L
15
	Totals:		Bets:		$30.00	Payout:	$16.11
			Week Return:		-46.31%

Ouch. But it's experimental, not sure why I keep at the Moneylines. I've done iteration after iteration, and it doesn't work. Is the Moneyline the bet the house always wins?? Is it the slot machine of NFL betting?

Look out for Rankings, this week's bets, et al to come.

Bonus feature: I created a Monte Carlo simulator to simulate games 1,000 times. Not betting it, but back tests are promising. Very promising.

Week 02: Results to Date (or, why a gambler should love me)

It occurs to me I've never published my full results before. Here they are, split 4 ways. The first two are based on picking EVERY game - All Picks. These are separated into unweighted (straight picks ATS) and weighted (weighted in a prioritized order - ie, pick 1 is better than pick 2 is better than... etc).

The second two groups are just BEST BETS. Best bets are the top picks of the week - the "arbitrage picks." These are also separated into unweighted (W/L ATS) and weighted (by how big a bet was placed on each).

The results are love inducing. See below:

All Picks (Unweighted)
Current Week	0-0-0
Current Season	8-8-0	50.00%
Overall	439-332-21	56.76%
All Picks (Weighted)
Current Week	0-0-0
Current Season	8-8-0	50.00%
Overall	466-334-22	58.04%
Best Bets (Unweighted)
Current Week	0-0-0
Current Season	0-0-0
Overall	216-148-10	59.09%
Best Bets (Weighted)
Current Week	0-0-0
Current Season	0-0-0
Overall	243-166-11	59.20%

Obviously, I'm 0-0 this week, and I've place zero bets yet this season, so I'm 0-0 this season for Best Bets. Otherwise, my favorite number: 59.20% on my best bets.

I don't have these numbers for Moneyline picks, since I'm still working on that system. Moneyline is far more complicated due to the payouts - I haven't quite figured out the best way, though I have a few good ways. The lesson? Ignore my crappy Moneyline picks, and jump on the picks ATS.

Questions? Hit me up in the comments.

Week 02: Betting the Moneyline

I'm working on new moneyline strategies that focus on high risk/high reward betting. Unclear whether I will use it, as I've had mixed backtesting. Excellent results in 2007, terrible results in 2008. Still tweaking. Here's what I'm showing this week, may make these bets and see how they play:

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %
1	TB	@ BUF	+190	36%
2	CLE	@ DEN	+160	26%
3	NYG	@ DAL	+130	20%
4	STL	@ WAS	+400	18%

Notice it's all the dogs, so major major risk betting. But mostly low yield dogs - love the NYG pick, and the box is taking TB both on the ML and the spread. STL is terrible, I can't quite figure why the box finds it so sexy.

Hopefully the wrinkles are ironed by next week and betting can begin in earnest. I'm moist with anticipation (is it wrong to say moist? Definitely).