Week 04: Bets and Power Ranks

Spread:

Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
SEA	@ STL	-1	9%	$8.85
PIT	v. BAL	-1.5	9%	$8.55
NE	@ MIA	-1	9%	$8.26
CHI	@ NYG	+4	8%	$7.96
NYJ	@ BUF	-5	8%	$7.66
HOU	@ OAK	-3	8%	$7.37
ATL	v. SF	-6.5	7%	$7.07
ARI	@ SD	+8	7%	$6.77
PHI	v. WAS	-6	7%	$6.48
IND	@ JAC	-7.5	6%	$6.18
DEN	@ TEN	+6.5	6%	$5.89
DET	@ GB	+14.5	6%	$5.59
CAR	@ NO	+13.5	5%	$5.29
CLE	v. CIN	+3	5%	$5.00
Totals:		Bets:		$96.92	Payout:	$0.00
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
8		6		W	L	P
57.14%		42.86%		0	0	0
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
4		10		0.00%
28.57%		71.43%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
1		5		-100.00%
7.14%		35.71%

And moneyline:

Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
CLE	v. CIN	+145	10%	$5.00
CHI	@ NYG	+175	10%	$5.00
ARI	@ SD	+320	10%	$5.00
NO	v. CAR	-680	10%	$5.00
IND	@ JAC	-360	10%	$5.00
ATL	v. SF	-270	10%	$5.00
PHI	v. WAS	-250	10%	$5.00
TEN	v. DEN	-250	10%	$5.00
HOU	@ OAK	-175	10%	$5.00
NYJ	@ BUF	-220	10%	$5.00
Totals:		Bets:		$50.00	Payout:	$0.00
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
7		3		W	L	P
70.00%		30.00%		0	0	0
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
5		5		0.00%
50.00%		50.00%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
1		3		-100.00%
10.00%		30.00%

I'll just go on record: I hate this week's picks. Lots of favorites (which I'm not a fan of), almost no home dogs, lots of away teams... the worst of the worst of the worst. I'm expecting a huge down week. But I go where the stats take me. Sigh.

The power ranks seem to be working though. StL shoots up this week. Still have to test it's validity, but... fun?

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC		2 - 0 - 0	68.75%
2	SEA	▲3	2 - 1 - 0
3	BAL	▼1	1 - 2 - 0
4	PIT	▲6	3 - 0 - 0
5	NYJ	▼2	2 - 1 - 0
6	CLE	▼2	1 - 1 - 1
7	STL	▲18	2 - 0 - 1
8	NE	▲8	1 - 2 - 0
9	CIN	▼3	2 - 1 - 0	43.75%
10	ATL	▼2	2 - 1 - 0
11	MIA	▼4	2 - 1 - 0
12	IND	▼3	2 - 1 - 0
13	SD	▼2	1 - 2 - 0
14	TB	▲16	0 - 0 - 1
15	NYG	▼3	1 - 2 - 0
16	NO	▼1	0 - 3 - 0
17	CHI	▲2	1 - 1 - 0
18	DAL	▲3	0 - 2 - 0
19	DEN	▼6	1 - 2 - 0
20	HOU		1 - 1 - 1
21	MIN	▼3	1 - 1 - 0
22	GB	▲1	1 - 1 - 0
23	PHI	▲6	2 - 1 - 0
24	TEN		2 - 1 - 0
25	WAS	▼8	1 - 1 - 1	31.25%
26	SF	▼12	1 - 2 - 0
27	DET	▲5	2 - 1 - 0
28	ARI	▼2	0 - 2 - 1
29	OAK	▼2	1 - 2 - 0
30	JAC	▼8	1 - 2 - 0
31	CAR		0 - 2 - 0
32	BUF	▼4	1 - 2 - 0

Week 03: Results

Rock'n roll.

Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
KC	v. SF	+2.5	7%	$5.78	W	$11.03
ATL	@ NO	+4	7%	$5.72	W	$10.92
NYJ	@ MIA	+1.5	7%	$5.67	W	$10.82
SEA	v. SD	+5.5	7%	$5.61	W	$10.71
TB	v. PIT	+2.5	7%	$5.56	L	$0.00
CIN	@ CAR	-3	7%	$5.50	W	$9.73
OAK	@ ARI	+4	7%	$5.44	W	$10.39
TEN	@ NYG	+3	7%	$5.39	W	$10.29
DET	@ MIN	+10.5	7%	$5.33	L	$0.00
STL	v. WAS	+3.5	7%	$5.28	W	$10.08
CLE	@ BAL	+10.5	6%	$5.22	W	$9.97
DEN	v. IND	+6	6%	$5.17	L	$0.00
DAL	@ HOU	+3	6%	$5.11	W	$9.37
PHI	@ JAC	-3	6%	$5.06	W	$10.11
NE	v. BUF	-14	6%	$5.00	L	$0.00
Totals:		Bets:		$80.83	Payout:	$113.42
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
3		12		W	L	P
20.00%		80.00%		11	4	0
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
6		9		73.33%
40.00%		60.00%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
5		2		40.32%
33.33%		13.33%

Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
KC	v. SF	+120	7%	$5.00	W	$11.00
TB	v. PIT	+120	7%	$5.00	L	$0.00
DAL	@ HOU	+120	7%	$5.00	W	$11.00
TEN	@ NYG	+140	7%	$5.00	W	$12.00
ATL	@ NO	+175	7%	$5.00	W	$13.75
OAK	@ ARI	+175	7%	$5.00	L	$0.00
STL	v. WAS	+170	7%	$5.00	W	$13.50
SEA	v. SD	+210	7%	$5.00	W	$15.50
DET	@ MIN	+425	7%	$5.00	L	$0.00
CLE	@ BAL	+425	7%	$5.00	L	$0.00
NE	v. BUF	-900	7%	$5.00	W	$5.56
IND	@ DEN	-260	7%	$5.00	W	$6.92
CIN	@ CAR	-190	7%	$5.00	W	$7.63
PHI	@ JAC	-145	7%	$5.00	W	$8.45
Totals:		Bets:		$70.00	Payout:	$105.31
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
4		10		W	L	P
28.57%		71.43%		10	4	0
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
5		9		71.43%
35.71%		64.29%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
4		3		50.44%
28.57%		21.43%

Week 03: Historical retrospective

Historical win percentages by pick rank back to 2006 under the current model for spread and moneyline bets - not the moneyline win percentages are misleading, since the model favors lower probability wins to high payout ratios rather than "straight up" winners. When gambling, the straight up favorites are usually the sucker's bet - who wants to lay a fiver to win 76 cents on a -650 high probability winner? In fact, the exact probability (according to Vegas) of a -650 covering is 81.59%. That's a whopping 19% chance that you WON'T win that 76 cents - you keep that bet up over time, and you're out 6 cents on every dollar you bet - not a lot, but enough to make it not worth it. (If you're interested, the math for this is simple - 80% of the time, you win 76 cents, and 20% of the time, you lose 5 dollars - so [.8 x .76] + [.2 x -5] = -.39 cents divided by 5 dollars = ~-7 cents per dollar).

Bearing that in mind, here you go - spread than money:

	SP Win %
	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	ALL
1	50.00%	58.82%	52.94%	38.24%	50.00%	50.00%
2	79.41%	44.12%	67.65%	64.71%	50.00%	63.57%
3	35.29%	73.53%	73.53%	70.59%	50.00%	62.86%
4	64.71%	44.12%	79.41%	47.06%	100.00%	60.00%
5	64.71%	70.59%	61.76%	47.06%	50.00%	60.71%
6	47.06%	58.82%	52.94%	61.76%	50.00%	55.00%
7	58.82%	52.94%	55.88%	47.06%	75.00%	54.29%
8	70.59%	50.00%	70.59%	41.18%	0.00%	56.43%
9	47.06%	55.88%	55.88%	47.06%	100.00%	52.86%
10	58.82%	64.71%	47.06%	64.71%	25.00%	57.86%
11	44.12%	58.82%	52.94%	50.00%	50.00%	51.43%
12	35.29%	61.76%	41.18%	52.94%	0.00%	46.43%
13	82.35%	35.29%	61.76%	62.50%	50.00%	60.14%
14	46.67%	40.00%	75.00%	33.33%	100.00%	50.00%
15	50.00%	55.00%	44.44%	63.64%	0.00%	51.19%
16	30.00%	80.00%	16.67%	66.67%	50.00%	48.33%

and money:

	ML Win %
	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	ALL
1		38.46%	35.29%	41.18%	50.00%	38.78%
2		53.85%	52.94%	41.18%	50.00%	48.98%
3		46.15%	41.18%	35.29%	0.00%	38.78%
4		38.46%	58.82%	58.82%	50.00%	53.06%
5		69.23%	58.82%	76.47%	50.00%	67.35%
6		69.23%	65.63%	82.35%	50.00%	71.88%
7		53.85%	62.50%	70.59%	50.00%	62.50%
8		84.62%	68.75%	76.47%	100.00%	77.08%
9		61.54%	81.25%	58.82%	50.00%	66.67%
10		84.62%	68.75%	94.12%	100.00%	83.33%
11		83.33%	73.33%	75.00%	50.00%	75.56%
12		54.55%	75.00%	76.92%	50.00%	68.42%
13		83.33%	57.14%	40.00%	100.00%	60.00%
14		100.00%	100.00%	44.44%	100.00%	68.75%
15		100.00%	50.00%	100.00%	100.00%	83.33%
16			50.00%	0.00%	0.00%	25.00%

Week 03: Altered power ranks, liking the bets this week

First, the bets. Here are the spread picks:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	KC	v. SF	+2.5	7%	$5.78
2	ATL	@ NO	+4	7%	$5.72
3	NYJ	@ MIA	+1.5	7%	$5.67
4	SEA	v. SD	+5.5	7%	$5.61
5	TB	v. PIT	+2.5	7%	$5.56
6	CIN	@ CAR	-3	7%	$5.50
7	OAK	@ ARI	+4	7%	$5.44
8	TEN	@ NYG	+3	7%	$5.39
9	DET	@ MIN	+10.5	7%	$5.33
10	STL	v. WAS	+3.5	7%	$5.28
11	CLE	@ BAL	+10.5	6%	$5.22
12	DEN	v. IND	+6	6%	$5.17
13	DAL	@ HOU	+3	6%	$5.11
14	PHI	@ JAC	-3	6%	$5.06
15	NE	v. BUF	-14	6%	$5.00

And the moneyline:

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	KC	v. SF	+120	7%	$5.00
2	TB	v. PIT	+120	7%	$5.00
3	DAL	@ HOU	+120	7%	$5.00
4	TEN	@ NYG	+140	7%	$5.00
5	ATL	@ NO	+175	7%	$5.00
6	OAK	@ ARI	+175	7%	$5.00
7	STL	v. WAS	+170	7%	$5.00
8	SEA	v. SD	+210	7%	$5.00
9	DET	@ MIN	+425	7%	$5.00
10	CLE	@ BAL	+425	7%	$5.00
11	NE	v. BUF	-900	7%	$5.00
12	IND	@ DEN	-260	7%	$5.00
13	CIN	@ CAR	-190	7%	$5.00
14	PHI	@ JAC	-145	7%	$5.00

Notice the new trend in the moneyline bets - I changed the formula, I'm now calculating it based on probabilities. It places more emphasis on high win potential games based on payout and probability. It's a tricky formula, maybe I'll go into it in a later post.

For now, I've altered the power rankings back to their original design of estimating team performance against the spread (rather than "who's the best team"). It now deviates substantially from my inspirational source of data, Football Outsiders. And it appears to work - over the last 4 years, the top quartile teams by week 17 had substantially improved ATS records over the rest of the teams. The motion in the teams is NOT effected by whether or not they covered in the previous week (or even whether they cover at all!), it's instead based on spread conviction and expected performance in games week to week. So it's a true predictive ranking rather than descriptive of past ATS records. Very cool.

Here it is:

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS	ATS Rank
1	KC	▲1	2 - 0 - 0	56.25%
2	BAL	▼1	1 - 1 - 0
3	NYJ	▲4	1 - 1 - 0
4	CLE	▲2	0 - 1 - 1
5	SEA		1 - 1 - 0
6	CIN	▼2	1 - 1 - 0
7	MIA	▲14	2 - 0 - 0
8	ATL	▲12	1 - 1 - 0
9	IND	▼6	1 - 1 - 0	46.88%
10	PIT	▲8	2 - 0 - 0
11	SD	▲2	1 - 1 - 0
12	NYG	▼1	1 - 1 - 0
13	DEN	▼5	1 - 1 - 0
14	SF	▲8	1 - 1 - 0
15	NO		0 - 2 - 0
16	NE	▼2	1 - 1 - 0
17	WAS	▼8	1 - 0 - 1
18	MIN	▼1	1 - 1 - 0
19	CHI	▲6	0 - 1 - 0
20	HOU	▼10	1 - 0 - 1
21	DAL	▲2	0 - 2 - 0
22	JAC	▼10	1 - 1 - 0
23	GB	▲3	0 - 1 - 0
24	TEN	▲3	1 - 1 - 0
25	STL	▼9	1 - 0 - 1	31.25%
26	ARI	▲3	0 - 1 - 1
27	OAK	▼8	0 - 2 - 0
28	BUF	▲4	0 - 2 - 0
29	PHI	▼5	1 - 1 - 0
30	TB	▼2	0 - 0 - 1
31	CAR		0 - 1 - 0
32	DET	▼2	2 - 0 - 0

Week 02: Results - Early losses, but not terrible

This new strategy of betting every game is definitely decreasing volatility - this would have been a a harsh week. Here are the results. Directly to follow are the Week 03 bets - in very early!

Spread results:

Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
KC	@ CLE	+1.5	8%	$6.79	W	$12.96
BAL	@ CIN	-1.5	8%	$6.66	L	$0.00
SEA	@ DEN	+3.5	7%	$6.53	L	$0.00
STL	@ OAK	+3.5	7%	$6.40	W	$12.23
NYG	@ IND	+5	7%	$6.28	L	$0.00
JAC	@ SD	+7	7%	$6.15	L	$0.00
HOU	@ WAS	-3	7%	$6.02	P	$6.02
NE	@ NYJ	-3	7%	$5.89	L	$0.00
MIA	@ MIN	+5.5	7%	$5.77	W	$11.01
NO	@ SF	-5.5	6%	$5.64	L	$0.00
CHI	@ DAL	+7.5	6%	$5.51	W	$10.52
TEN	v. PIT	-5	6%	$5.38	L	$0.00
ARI	@ ATL	+6.5	6%	$5.25	L	$0.00
DET	v. PHI	+6	6%	$5.13	W	$9.79
BUF	@ GB	+13.5	6%	$5.00	L	$0.00
Totals:		Bets:		$88.41	Payout:	$62.53
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
5		10		W	L	P
33.33%		66.67%		5	9	1
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
2		13		33.33%
13.33%		86.67%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
1		4		-29.28%
6.67%		26.67%

And the moneyline:

Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
SEA	@ DEN	+165	8%	$5.00	L	$0.00
STL	@ OAK	+165	8%	$5.00	L	$0.00
NYG	@ IND	+200	8%	$5.00	L	$0.00
MIA	@ MIN	+210	8%	$5.00	W	$15.50
DET	v. PHI	+220	8%	$5.00	L	$0.00
JAC	@ SD	+260	8%	$5.00	L	$0.00
ARI	@ ATL	+250	8%	$5.00	L	$0.00
CHI	@ DAL	+300	8%	$5.00	W	$20.00
GB	v. BUF	-650	8%	$5.00	W	$5.77
NO	@ SF	-250	8%	$5.00	W	$7.00
TEN	v. PIT	-230	8%	$5.00	L	$0.00
NE	@ NYJ	-150	8%	$5.00	L	$0.00
HOU	@ WAS	-145	8%	$5.00	W	$8.45
Totals:		Bets:		$65.00	Payout:	$56.72
Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
5		8		W	L	P
38.46%		61.54%		5	8	0
Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
3		10		38.46%
23.08%		76.92%
Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
1		3		-12.74%
7.69%		23.08%

Week 02: Banged out the bets early

Week 2 and the fun begins. Early this year. I'm now betting every game, low amounts. Removed volatility, increased returns. I prefer low volatility (I fear change).

Here are the week 2 best bets and rankings:

Spread:

Rank	Pick	Vs	Spd	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	KC	@ CLE	+1.5	8%	$6.79	W	$0.00
2	BAL	@ CIN	-1.5	8%	$6.66	L	$0.00
3	SEA	@ DEN	+3.5	7%	$6.53	W	$0.00
4	STL	@ OAK	+3.5	7%	$6.40	W	$0.00
5	NYG	@ IND	+5	7%	$6.28	W	$0.00
6	JAC	@ SD	+7	7%	$6.15	W	$0.00
7	HOU	@ WAS	-3	7%	$6.02	L	$0.00
8	NE	@ NYJ	-3	7%	$5.89	L	$0.00
9	MIA	@ MIN	+5.5	7%	$5.77	W	$0.00
10	NO	@ SF	-5.5	6%	$5.64	L	$0.00
11	CHI	@ DAL	+7.5	6%	$5.51	W	$0.00
12	TEN	v. PIT	-5	6%	$5.38	L	$0.00
13	ARI	@ ATL	+6.5	6%	$5.25	W	$0.00
14	DET	v. PHI	+6	6%	$5.13	W	$0.00
15	BUF	@ GB	+13.5	6%	$5.00	W	$0.00
	Totals:		Bets:		$88.41	Payout:	$0.00
	Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
	5		10		W	L	P
	33.33%		66.67%		10	5	0
	Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
	2		13		66.67%
	13.33%		86.67%
	Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
	1		4		-100.00%
	6.67%		26.67%

Moneyline:

Rank	Pick	Vs	ML	Bet %	Bet Amt	W/L	Payout
1	SEA	@ DEN	+165	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
2	STL	@ OAK	+165	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
3	NYG	@ IND	+200	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
4	MIA	@ MIN	+210	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
5	DET	v. PHI	+220	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
6	JAC	@ SD	+260	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
7	ARI	@ ATL	+250	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
8	CHI	@ DAL	+300	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
9	GB	v. BUF	-650	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
10	NO	@ SF	-250	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
11	TEN	v. PIT	-230	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
12	NE	@ NYJ	-150	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
13	HOU	@ WAS	-145	8%	$5.00	P	$0.00
	Totals:		Bets:		$65.00	Payout:	$0.00
	Favorites		Dogs		Record This Week:
	5		8		W	L	P
	38.46%		61.54%		0	0	13
	Home		Away		Week Win Percent:
	3		10		0.00%
	23.08%		76.92%
	Home Dogs		Away Faves		Bet Win Percent:
	1		3		-100.00%
	7.69%		23.08%

And the rankings (courtesy of Football Outsiders until next week's numbers kick in - week 3 is the first week with any sort of modicum of sample size):

Power Ranks		▲▼	ATS
1	BAL		1 - 0 - 0
2	PIT		1 - 0 - 0
3	NE		1 - 0 - 0
4	GB	▲2	0 - 1 - 0
5	ATL		0 - 1 - 0
6	CHI	▲2	0 - 1 - 0
7	IND	▼3	0 - 1 - 0
8	MIA	▲2	1 - 0 - 0
9	NYG	▲5	1 - 0 - 0
10	PHI	▼3	1 - 0 - 0
11	NO	▲2	0 - 1 - 0
12	NYJ	▼1	0 - 1 - 0
13	MIN	▼4	1 - 0 - 0
14	WAS	▼2	1 - 0 - 0
15	DAL		0 - 1 - 0
16	KC		1 - 0 - 0
17	SEA	▲4	1 - 0 - 0
18	TEN	▲4	1 - 0 - 0
19	ARI	▼1	0 - 0 - 1
20	JAC	▲5	1 - 0 - 0
21	CIN	▼4	0 - 1 - 0
22	DEN	▼2	0 - 1 - 0
23	SD	▼4	0 - 1 - 0
24	TB	▲2
25	BUF	▼1	0 - 1 - 0
26	CAR	▼3
27	HOU		1 - 0 - 0
28	CLE	▲1	0 - 0 - 1
29	STL	▲1	0 - 0 - 1
30	SF	▼2	0 - 1 - 0
31	DET	▲1	1 - 0 - 0
32	OAK	▼1	0 - 1 - 0