Week 03: Historical retrospective

Historical win percentages by pick rank back to 2006 under the current model for spread and moneyline bets - not the moneyline win percentages are misleading, since the model favors lower probability wins to high payout ratios rather than "straight up" winners. When gambling, the straight up favorites are usually the sucker's bet - who wants to lay a fiver to win 76 cents on a -650 high probability winner? In fact, the exact probability (according to Vegas) of a -650 covering is 81.59%. That's a whopping 19% chance that you WON'T win that 76 cents - you keep that bet up over time, and you're out 6 cents on every dollar you bet - not a lot, but enough to make it not worth it. (If you're interested, the math for this is simple - 80% of the time, you win 76 cents, and 20% of the time, you lose 5 dollars - so [.8 x .76] + [.2 x -5] = -.39 cents divided by 5 dollars = ~-7 cents per dollar).

Bearing that in mind, here you go - spread than money:

	SP Win %
	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	ALL
1	50.00%	58.82%	52.94%	38.24%	50.00%	50.00%
2	79.41%	44.12%	67.65%	64.71%	50.00%	63.57%
3	35.29%	73.53%	73.53%	70.59%	50.00%	62.86%
4	64.71%	44.12%	79.41%	47.06%	100.00%	60.00%
5	64.71%	70.59%	61.76%	47.06%	50.00%	60.71%
6	47.06%	58.82%	52.94%	61.76%	50.00%	55.00%
7	58.82%	52.94%	55.88%	47.06%	75.00%	54.29%
8	70.59%	50.00%	70.59%	41.18%	0.00%	56.43%
9	47.06%	55.88%	55.88%	47.06%	100.00%	52.86%
10	58.82%	64.71%	47.06%	64.71%	25.00%	57.86%
11	44.12%	58.82%	52.94%	50.00%	50.00%	51.43%
12	35.29%	61.76%	41.18%	52.94%	0.00%	46.43%
13	82.35%	35.29%	61.76%	62.50%	50.00%	60.14%
14	46.67%	40.00%	75.00%	33.33%	100.00%	50.00%
15	50.00%	55.00%	44.44%	63.64%	0.00%	51.19%
16	30.00%	80.00%	16.67%	66.67%	50.00%	48.33%

and money:

	ML Win %
	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	ALL
1		38.46%	35.29%	41.18%	50.00%	38.78%
2		53.85%	52.94%	41.18%	50.00%	48.98%
3		46.15%	41.18%	35.29%	0.00%	38.78%
4		38.46%	58.82%	58.82%	50.00%	53.06%
5		69.23%	58.82%	76.47%	50.00%	67.35%
6		69.23%	65.63%	82.35%	50.00%	71.88%
7		53.85%	62.50%	70.59%	50.00%	62.50%
8		84.62%	68.75%	76.47%	100.00%	77.08%
9		61.54%	81.25%	58.82%	50.00%	66.67%
10		84.62%	68.75%	94.12%	100.00%	83.33%
11		83.33%	73.33%	75.00%	50.00%	75.56%
12		54.55%	75.00%	76.92%	50.00%	68.42%
13		83.33%	57.14%	40.00%	100.00%	60.00%
14		100.00%	100.00%	44.44%	100.00%	68.75%
15		100.00%	50.00%	100.00%	100.00%	83.33%
16			50.00%	0.00%	0.00%	25.00%