First, the bets. Here are the
spread picks:
| Rank | Pick | Vs | Spd | Bet % | Bet Amt | W/L | Payout |
| 1 | KC | v. SF | +2.5 | 7% | $5.78 | | |
| 2 | ATL | @ NO | +4 | 7% | $5.72 | | |
| 3 | NYJ | @ MIA | +1.5 | 7% | $5.67 | | |
| 4 | SEA | v. SD | +5.5 | 7% | $5.61 | | |
| 5 | TB | v. PIT | +2.5 | 7% | $5.56 | | |
| 6 | CIN | @ CAR | -3 | 7% | $5.50 | | |
| 7 | OAK | @ ARI | +4 | 7% | $5.44 | | |
| 8 | TEN | @ NYG | +3 | 7% | $5.39 | | |
| 9 | DET | @ MIN | +10.5 | 7% | $5.33 | | |
| 10 | STL | v. WAS | +3.5 | 7% | $5.28 | | |
| 11 | CLE | @ BAL | +10.5 | 6% | $5.22 | | |
| 12 | DEN | v. IND | +6 | 6% | $5.17 | | |
| 13 | DAL | @ HOU | +3 | 6% | $5.11 | | |
| 14 | PHI | @ JAC | -3 | 6% | $5.06 | | |
| 15 | NE | v. BUF | -14 | 6% | $5.00 | | |
| | | | | | | | |
And the
moneyline:
| Rank | Pick | Vs | ML | Bet % | Bet Amt | W/L | Payout |
| 1 | KC | v. SF | +120 | 7% | $5.00 | | |
| 2 | TB | v. PIT | +120 | 7% | $5.00 | | |
| 3 | DAL | @ HOU | +120 | 7% | $5.00 | | |
| 4 | TEN | @ NYG | +140 | 7% | $5.00 | | |
| 5 | ATL | @ NO | +175 | 7% | $5.00 | | |
| 6 | OAK | @ ARI | +175 | 7% | $5.00 | | |
| 7 | STL | v. WAS | +170 | 7% | $5.00 | | |
| 8 | SEA | v. SD | +210 | 7% | $5.00 | | |
| 9 | DET | @ MIN | +425 | 7% | $5.00 | | |
| 10 | CLE | @ BAL | +425 | 7% | $5.00 | | |
| 11 | NE | v. BUF | -900 | 7% | $5.00 | | |
| 12 | IND | @ DEN | -260 | 7% | $5.00 | | |
| 13 | CIN | @ CAR | -190 | 7% | $5.00 | | |
| 14 | PHI | @ JAC | -145 | 7% | $5.00 | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
Notice the new trend in the moneyline bets - I changed the formula, I'm now calculating it based on probabilities. It places more emphasis on high win potential games based on payout and probability. It's a tricky formula, maybe I'll go into it in a later post.
For now, I've altered the power rankings back to their original design of estimating team performance against the spread (rather than "who's the best team"). It now deviates substantially from my inspirational source of data, Football Outsiders. And it appears to work - over the last 4 years, the top quartile teams by week 17 had substantially improved ATS records over the rest of the teams. The motion in the teams is NOT effected by whether or not they covered in the previous week (or even whether they cover at all!), it's instead based on spread conviction and expected performance in games week to week. So it's a true predictive ranking rather than descriptive of past ATS records. Very cool.
Here it is:
| Power Ranks | ▲▼ | ATS | ATS Rank |
| 1 | KC | ▲1 | 2 - 0 - 0 | 56.25% |
| 2 | BAL | ▼1 | 1 - 1 - 0 |
| 3 | NYJ | ▲4 | 1 - 1 - 0 |
| 4 | CLE | ▲2 | 0 - 1 - 1 |
| 5 | SEA | | 1 - 1 - 0 |
| 6 | CIN | ▼2 | 1 - 1 - 0 |
| 7 | MIA | ▲14 | 2 - 0 - 0 |
| 8 | ATL | ▲12 | 1 - 1 - 0 |
| 9 | IND | ▼6 | 1 - 1 - 0 | 46.88% |
| 10 | PIT | ▲8 | 2 - 0 - 0 |
| 11 | SD | ▲2 | 1 - 1 - 0 |
| 12 | NYG | ▼1 | 1 - 1 - 0 |
| 13 | DEN | ▼5 | 1 - 1 - 0 |
| 14 | SF | ▲8 | 1 - 1 - 0 |
| 15 | NO | | 0 - 2 - 0 |
| 16 | NE | ▼2 | 1 - 1 - 0 |
| 17 | WAS | ▼8 | 1 - 0 - 1 |
| 18 | MIN | ▼1 | 1 - 1 - 0 |
| 19 | CHI | ▲6 | 0 - 1 - 0 |
| 20 | HOU | ▼10 | 1 - 0 - 1 |
| 21 | DAL | ▲2 | 0 - 2 - 0 |
| 22 | JAC | ▼10 | 1 - 1 - 0 |
| 23 | GB | ▲3 | 0 - 1 - 0 |
| 24 | TEN | ▲3 | 1 - 1 - 0 |
| 25 | STL | ▼9 | 1 - 0 - 1 | 31.25% |
| 26 | ARI | ▲3 | 0 - 1 - 1 |
| 27 | OAK | ▼8 | 0 - 2 - 0 |
| 28 | BUF | ▲4 | 0 - 2 - 0 |
| 29 | PHI | ▼5 | 1 - 1 - 0 |
| 30 | TB | ▼2 | 0 - 0 - 1 |
| 31 | CAR | | 0 - 1 - 0 |
| 32 | DET | ▼2 | 2 - 0 - 0 |
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